Looks can be deceiving. No downtown area in the western world outside Manhattan is more visually impressive than Chicago. Both the historic Loop and the newer development north of the Chicago River, especially along North Michigan Avenue have some of the most iconic structures outside of emerging Asia. Yet these vertical monuments mask a less celebrated reality: that of dispersing, low density urban area.
Chicago Combined Statistical Area: Let’s take a close look at the 2010 census data. Overall, the combined statistical area, which includes the metropolitan area (Note 1) and two exurban counties added nearly 365,000 people, for a growth rate of 3.9 percent. This is well below the national growth rate of approximately 10 percent (Map, Figure 1). Chicago followed the general trend of with growth being greatest in the outer suburbs while declines took place both in the inner suburbs and the historical core municipality (Figure 2).
Massive Core City Loss: The historical core city of Chicago lost but 200,000 people, and fell to a population of 2.7 million, the lowest count since the 1910 census. The population is down 925,000 from 1950 and at the current rate would drop at least 1 million from the 1950 peak by the 2020 census. Chicago is at risk of joining London and Detroit as the only two historical core municipalities in modern times that have lost more than 1 million people.
Inner Suburbs: As in New York and Seattle, Chicago’s inner suburbs grew slowly. The inner suburbs include the part of Cook County that is outside the city of Chicago as well as Lake County, Indiana (home of Gary), which shares the city of Chicago’s eastern border. The inner suburbs added fewer than 30,000 residents and grew only one percent.
This suggests some limitations to the newly developing mantra that has inner suburbs will be the locus of future growth although there are scattered inner suburbs in other cities (such as Hoboken, New Jersey) that did see growth. Perhaps the old mantra, about people returning to the city from which they had never come was finally quashed by the realities of the 2010 census.
Outer Suburbs: The outer suburbs, which include the remaining counties of the metropolitan area, grew at a rate of 16.5 percent, actually grew faster than the national average of approximately 10 percent. The outer suburbs added more than 500,000 people. The largest growth, 175,000 was in Will County, to the south, one of the five “collar counties” that used to define the boundaries of the metropolitan area. McHenry County, the most distant of the collar counties added 100,000. The fastest growth was in far suburban and also southern Kendall County, which more than doubled in population.
Chicago Metropolitan Area: Overall, the Chicago metropolitan area added approximately 360,000 people and grew 4.0 percent from 2000. This is well below the national average population growth rate, however was above that of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, once among the nation’s of leading growth areas until the last decade.
Historical Trends: The city of Chicago, like other historical core cities, had previously been dominant in its metropolitan area. The earliest Census Bureau metropolitan area (“metropolitan district”) estimates from 1900 indicated that more than 90 percent of the region’s population was contained in the city of Chicago. By 1950, the city of Chicago had fallen to 66 percent of the metropolitan area as defined in that year. The city of Chicago now has only 28 percent of the combined statistical area population of 9.7 million (Figure 3, Table and Note 2).
| CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA | ||||||
| POPULATION TREND BY COUNTY: 2000 TO 2010 | ||||||
| 1900 | 1950 | 2000 | 2010 | Change: 2000-2010 | % Change: 2000-2010 | |
| HISTORIC CORE MUNICIPALITY | ||||||
| Chicago | 1,698,575 | 3,620,962 | 2,895,671 | 2,695,598 | -200,073 | -6.9% |
| INNER SUBURBAN | 178,052 | 1,255,982 | 2,965,634 | 2,995,082 | 29,448 | 1.0% |
| Cook County, IL | 140,160 | 887,830 | 2,481,070 | 2,499,077 | 18,007 | 0.7% |
| Lake County, IN | 37,892 | 368,152 | 484,564 | 496,005 | 11,441 | 2.4% |
| OUTER SUBURBAN | 378,896 | 884,980 | 3,237,011 | 3,770,425 | 533,414 | 16.5% |
| DeKalb County, IL | 31,756 | 40,781 | 88,969 | 105,160 | 16,191 | 18.2% |
| DuPage County, IL | 28,196 | 154,999 | 904,161 | 916,924 | 12,763 | 1.4% |
| Grundy County, IL | 24,136 | 19,217 | 37,535 | 50,063 | 12,528 | 33.4% |
| Jasper County, IN | 14,292 | 17,031 | 30,043 | 33,478 | 3,435 | 11.4% |
| Kane County, IL | 78,792 | 150,388 | 404,119 | 515,269 | 111,150 | 27.5% |
| Kendall County, IL | 11,467 | 12,155 | 54,544 | 114,736 | 60,192 | 110.4% |
| Kenosha County, WI | 21,707 | 75,238 | 149,577 | 166,426 | 16,849 | 11.3% |
| Lake County, IL | 34,504 | 179,097 | 644,356 | 703,462 | 59,106 | 9.2% |
| McHenry County, IL | 29,659 | 50,656 | 260,077 | 308,760 | 48,683 | 18.7% |
| Newton County, IN | 10,448 | 11,006 | 14,566 | 14,244 | -322 | -2.2% |
| Porter County, IN | 19,175 | 40,076 | 146,798 | 164,343 | 17,545 | 12.0% |
| Will County, IL | 74,764 | 134,336 | 502,266 | 677,560 | 175,294 | 34.9% |
| CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA | 2,255,523 | 5,761,924 | 9,098,316 | 9,461,105 | 362,789 | 4.0% |
| EXURBAN METROPOLITAN COUNTIES | 75,540 | 150,332 | 213,939 | 224,916 | 10,977 | 5.1% |
| Kankakee Coiunty, IL | 37,154 | 73,524 | 103,833 | 113,449 | 9,616 | 9.3% |
| La Porte County, IN | 38,386 | 76,808 | 110,106 | 111,467 | 1,361 | 1.2% |
| CHICAGO COMBINED STATISTICAL AREA | 2,331,063 | 5,912,256 | 9,312,255 | 9,686,021 | 364,150 | 3.9% |
| Data from the US Census Bureau | ||||||
Since 1950 (Note 3), all of the growth in the Chicago area has been in the suburbs. By 2000, both inner suburbs and the outer suburbs each had more people than the city of Chicago. Today the outer suburbs, with forty percent of the region’s population, represent the largest demographic force in Chicago (Figure 4).
We do not usually associate Chicago with the dreaded term “sprawl” but Chicago now stands as the third largest urban agglomeration in the world in land area, trailing only New York and Tokyo. The Chicago urban area covers more land than Los Angeles, which has a far higher urban density.
Dispersing Employment: Chicago’s dispersion extends to employment. Despite having the second strongest central business district in the nation (after Manhattan), jobs are rapidly decentralizing. Last year the Downtown Loop Alliance reported that private sector employment in the Loop fell 20 percent during the last decade. Overall, the downtown area of Chicago now represents approximately 10 percent of regional employment, barely half the percentage of Manhattan or Washington, DC.
American community survey data from 2009 indicates the total employment in the North West corridor along Interstate 90 has at least as much employment as downtown Chicago. This corridor, anchored by the edge city (Note 4) of Schaumburg, is typical of emerging suburban centers around the nation. Only two percent of workers in this corridor use transit for commuting.
Another corridor, along Interstate 88 (anchored by Lisle and Aurora) has at least two thirds the employment of downtown, with only one percent commuting by transit. The North Shore corridor encompassing parts of northern Cook County and Lake County is of similar size to the Interstate 88 corridor and has a larger transit work trip market share of five percent.
Downtown, on the other hand, has the third largest transit work trip market share in the nation, following Manhattan and Brooklyn. In 2000, 55 percent of people working downtown (the larger downtown including the Loop, north of the River and adjacent areas to the west and south) commuted by transit. This illustrates the strength of transit for providing access to the largest, most dense downtown areas in contrast to dispersed suburban areas.
Perhaps more telling, the number of jobs and resident workers (the “jobs-housing” balance) in the city of Chicago are converging toward equality. According to American community survey data, there are 1.1 jobs in the city of Chicago for each working resident. This is substantially less, for example, than Washington (2.6), Atlanta (2.0), Boston (1.7), San Francisco (1.4) and Baltimore (1.4).
On the other hand, two of the three large suburban corridors have higher ratios of jobs to workers than the city of Chicago. The Interstate 88 corridor has 1.3 jobs per worker, while the North Shore has approximately 1.5 jobs per worker. The Interstate 90 corridor has slightly more jobs than workers. These data indicate that Chicago is well on the way to a more evenly distributed employment pattern that has become more common around the nation.
Middle America’s Leviathan: The Chicago area has been very resilient through the years. After nearly a century as the nation’s “second city,” Aaron Renn points out the area could fall from its much cherished “global city” status. Still, Chicago remains the dominant urban area between the coasts. Virtually all of its Midwestern competition has fallen away (such as Detroit, St. Louis and Cleveland). However, in the longer run Chicago could be displaced by Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston. Nonetheless, the urban area’s visually arresting business district will retain its iconic status even if, overall, the region looks more and more like the rest of highly dispersed Middle America.
——
Note 1: This article uses metropolitan area and combined statistical areas as defined by the authoritative US Office of Management and the Budget.
Note 2: The 1950 references provided because the closest to the Post-War democratization of homeownership and car ownership and expansion of car oriented suburbanization. Before World War II, most US historical core cities were comparatively dense, while a far smaller share of the population lived in the suburbs.
Note 3: Figure 3 and the Table show data for the 2010 geographical definition of the combined statistical area. Earlier metropolitan area definitions are also referred to in the text.
Note 4: An “edge city” is a major employment center outside the central business district (downtown). “Edge city” became a part of the language as a result of Joel Garreau’s 1991 book, Edge City: Life on the Urban Frontier.
Photograph: Downtown Chicago from the Air (by author)
Comments
81 responses to “The Evolving Urban Form: Chicago”
Before you write Chicago off as a declining city about to fall from the Global City rankings, you might want to mention that the income per capita and college degree attainment for the City of Chicago rose according to the American Community Survey. Lest one think that income rose only for the Loop and related North Side neighborhoods, check out the first link below. Oh, and last year Chicago also moved up two spots on Foreign Policy’s Global City ranking.
http://www.lib.uchicago.edu/e/su/maps/chipcapinc9907.html
http://archive.chicagobreakingbusiness.com/2010/08/chicago-gains-in-global-cities-ranking.html
The Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) was originally designated by the United States Census Bureau in 1950. It consisted of the Illinois counties of Cook, DuPage, Kane, Lake and Will, along with Lake County in Indiana.Discount Office Furniture
The Chicago MSA is further subdivided into the Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL Metropolitan Division, corresponding roughly to the CMAP region; the Gary, IN Metropolitan Division consisting of the Indiana counties of Lake and Porter, as well as two surrounding counties; and the Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI Metropolitan Division.home saunas
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Chicago has the second largest downtown business center in the U.S., but it may be displaced in the future because of increasing spawl…by Houston or Dallas? Both of those towns are sprawl-y today, even in their urban centers. The population of their metro areas are about half of Chicago’s. If those towns were to grow to 10-million people, the MSA-boundaries may overlap with College Station.
Dallas’ central area growth is already slowing down without ever achieving density, of course it’s suburbs are growing apace. If Chicago has a problem with sprawl, Dallas will have double-trouble.
For some reason, it’s become popular to point out how dense L.A. is. It’s an interesting factoid only because it’s counter-intuitive. The whole city feels fairly low-density and car-focused, like Orlando or Phoenix and there’s no real center you can point to. Of course, it’s fairly built out so the density is fairly high. The fact that average density is high in L.A. doesn’t mean L.A. has achieved a great urban form, *it illustrates that average density alone isn’t a very useful metric.* If one 100-square mile city had 1000 people even distributed and another with the same area has 900 people in 10 square miles and 100 in the other 90, the average density is the same, but the experience of the average resident is vastly different.
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This is a great analysis on population and density trends in the Chicago Metropolitan Agglomaration, but the conclusion that Chicago is running the risk losing its global city status is not based on anaylsis of the factors that make it a global city in the first place. The main factor is money. With a GDP of approximately $574 Billion, Chicago is the 4th richist city in the world. If population were the main factor in a city’s global influence, Mexico City and Sao Paulo would be more influential than New York and London. Lagos, the fastest growing and most rapidly densifying city in the world, would be more influential than LA. Even if Chicago did start dropping down the list of world’s wealthiest cities it would remain a global city due to its position as the world center of commodity trading. The argument on population density is also misleading. In 2000 Chicago’s population density, at 12,750 per square mile, was over 50% higher than LAs. How does a 6% population drop translate into suddenly having a far lower urban density than LA? If the density figures are based on greater metropolitan area and not the cities themselves, doesn’t the fact that the periphery is the fastest growing region of the greater Chicago area (16% over the past decade) defeat the purpose of argueing that it is in decline? Doesn’t the huge growth on the periphery of the metropolitan agglomaration implicate increased density in that area?
Brilliant analysis of population !Lots of outer sunburns are there in Chicago, wow ..never knew.
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The Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) was originally designated by the United States Census Bureau in 1950. It consisted of the Illinois counties of Cook, DuPage, Kane, Lake and Will, along with Lake County in Indiana tech tree
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the factors that make it a global city in the first place. The main factor is money. With a GDP of approximately $574 Billion,
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Chicago, illinois has the second biggest down-town business middle in the U.S., but it may be removed at some point because of improving spawl…by Austin or Dallas? Both of those places are sprawl-y these days, even in their locations. The inhabitants of their community places are about 50 % of Chicago’s. If those places were to develop to 10-million individuals, the MSA-boundaries may overlap with Higher education Place.
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The Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) was originally designated by the United States Census Bureau in 1950. It consisted of the Illinois counties of Cook, DuPage, Kane, Lake and Will, along with Lake County in Indiana.Motorcycles for sale
oth the historic Loop and the newer development north of the Chicago River, especially along North Michigan Avenue have some of the most iconic structures outside of emerging Asia. Yet these vertical monuments mask a less celebrated reality: that of dispersing, low density urban area. Get High PR links only by $5 in Fiverr
The photograph of downtown Chicago accompanying your article is lacking, first, it seems to be about ten years old and second, about 25% of what is considered downtown Chicago is excluded on the right side of the image. I understand it is difficult to find a photo of the entire skyline, I looked for one myself and could not find one.
After having read the article. My question to you would be, “Have you been to Houston or Dallas/Fort Worth recently?” Both metropolitan areas are, by my reckoning, the epitome of urban sprawl, in fact, it appears, they are both in a category second only to Los Angeles and they are only going to become evermore sprawling.
Which brings me to another point, Among the major U.S. cities Houston has a major air quality issue and Dallas is said to be in the top 25 cities with an air quality issue. These issues are most likely to become worse as the populations increase and the sprawl increases.
Which brings me to another point, both metro areas have a major lack of commuter rail service. Dallas has 90 miles(2015) commuter rail route and Houston has 30 miles(2015). By way of comparison Chicago has, including METRA, CTA & SSL, nearly 700 miles of two-way commuter rail service. This 700 miles of commute rail routes is invaluable to Chicago and the metropolitan area.
Let me ask you, with the continuing effect of Global Warming, have you spent any time between May 1st to Oct 1st in Houston or Dallas lately?
The summers are becoming too hot and too uncomfortable to be able to enjoy the Great Outdoors during daylight hours. The Chicago climate seems to be moderating, with winters becoming milder and summers being delightfully warm and seldom uncomfortable hot.
Are you aware Chicago sits on the shore of the largest body of fresh water in the entire world? That’s right, the body of water we refer to as Lake Michigan/Lake Huron is, at 45,000 sq. mi. surface area, the largest body of fresh water in the entire world.
As you said, the downtown area of Chicago is iconic and one of the reasons is the number of square feet of commercial, residential and hospitality floor space contained in the downtown area. Another reason, of course, is the vertical, skyscraping nature of the downtown area and the total number of stories which exist in the mass of buildings which form the downtown. In fact the downtown of Chicago is, an estimated, two times as massive as the downtown’s of Houston, Dallas and Fort Worth combined(based on the total square feet of all floor space contained within the four downtowns).
Another interesting fact, Chicago including the businesses and corporations located and headquartered in the Metro Area is the 4th largest GDP among the world’s cities. Downtown Chicago on the shore of the inland sea which is Lake Michigan is situated in a stunningly beautiful location, don’t let any landlocked city convince you otherwise.
The center core of Chicago, which is the downtown, is growing in population. All of the census tracts located in the downtown area are increasing in population. This means the city center is increasing in population and is increasing in size both vertically and horizonally.
Lastly, “Chicagoland” was the original unofficial term for metropolitan Chicago, when the term was coined and defined it included not just Kenosha County in Wisconsin, but Chicagoland also included Racine County in Wisconsin. However when the Combined Statistical Areas were defined Racine was included in the Milwaukee-Racine-Waukesha CSA. If Racine County were again the be a part of the Chicago CSA, that would put the Chicago CSA(2012) right at 10 million population. There has been speculation for at least 20 years that at some point the Chicago Metro Area and the Milwaukee Metro Area will be combined, if that does happen in 2020 or 2030 the Chicago/Milwaukee CSA will then have a population of about 12 million.
From a top down level, I enjoyed this analysis. But whence the population decline in the city center?
As the city, particularly the north side, has gentrified, the population density has fallen. Two flats that housed eight or more people are being converted to single family homes, often inhabited by DINKs. (In 1940 my house was occupied by 7 people and is now… double income no kids. We live next to dinks, and on the other side of them are more dinks. These three houses collectively had 27 people in 1940.)
Second, as the public housing projects have been torn down the housing stock hasn’t been replaced. Many a complaint has been made by residents of Kankakee, Decatur, even Danville, that the former occupants are becoming an exurban plague bringing crime and disorder with them.
Finally, I’d expect this trend to continue, especially on the south side. Those worst affected by the foreclosure crisis (disproportionately the poor neighborhoods) are losing housing stock as blighted, vacant buildings are bulldozed.
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If Trenton and Newburgh are included in New York’s (54 miles from core), and Palm Springs is included in Los Angeles’ (100 miles from core), then why isn’t Milwaukee combined with Chicago (81 miles from core)?
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