A new analysis from the United Kingdom concludes that smart growth (compact city) policies are not inherently preferable to other urban land use policy regimes, despite the claims of proponents."The current planning policy strategies for land use and transport have virtually no impact on the major long-term increases in resource and energy consumption. They generally tend to increase costs and reduce economic competitiveness." The article goes on: "Claims that compaction will make cities more sustainable have been debated for some time, but they lack conclusive supporting evidence as to the environmental and, particularly, economic and social effects."
These would not be surprising findings to Newgeography.com readers, who are accustomed to similar analyses rooted in economic, demographic, and environmental data. However, this article appeared in the Spring 2012 issue of the Journal of the American Planning Association, under the title, "Growing Cities Sustainably: Does Urban Form Really Matter?"
Moreover, the authors are urban planning insiders, including Marcial H. Echenique, a land use and transport professor at Cambridge University, Anthony J. Hargreaves from the Martin Centre for Architectural Studies at Cambridge, Gordon Mitchell from the Faculty of the Environment at the University of Leeds and Anil Namdea of the School of Engineering at the University of Newcastle.
Smart Growth Criticisms
Many of the British critiques parallel those made by critics of smart growth for years. They focus particularly on the concern that smart growth generally has neglected economic and social costs. For example, smart growth policies lead to higher house prices by rationing land (such as with urban growth boundaries). Higher house prices lead to less discretionary income for households, so that there is less money for other goods and services, lowering employment levels. The resulting densification leads to more intense traffic congestion, with resulting economic losses and more intense air pollution, which is less healthful.
The Research
The authors modeled land use and travel behavior in three areas of England, subjecting them to three land use alternatives: compact development (smart growth), planned development (which I would label "smart growth light") and dispersal, the generally liberal approach common in United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand for decades after World War II (and still in many US and some Canadian markets).
Echenique et al analyzed the London metropolitan region (Greater London Authority, Southeast England and East England), which has a population of 20 million and the Newcastle (Tyne and Wear) metropolitan region, which has a population of 1,000,000. They also analyzed a sub-region within London metropolitan region, Cambridge, with a population of 500,000.
Their model projected little difference in outcomes between the three land use regulatory regimes to 2031. Predictably, land consumption was less under the compact development, but the variation in land consumed varied no more than plus or minus one percent from the trend (base case) in the London area, where only 11 percent of the land is in urban or transport use. Other factors, such as the change in transport energy use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transport and residences and air pollution varied little between the three regulatory regimes.
Economic costs in 2031 were projected to be the lowest (best) for the dispersed option and the highest for the compact development option, both in the London and Newcastle metropolitan regions. Planned development ranked second.
The compact development option scored best in the Cambridge sub-region, while the planned development option was the highest cost. The dispersed option ranked second. The researchers attributed the better result for compact development in the Cambridge area to its uniqueness as a low-density, centrally oriented, high-tech, university community and further noted that densification could "reduce its attractiveness over the longer term."
Smart Growth Claims: Setting the Record Straight
Based upon their research and review of the literature, the authors proceed to undermine some of smart growth’s most sacred foundations.
Smart Growth Claim: Smart growth has little or no impact on house prices:
Echenique et al: "…restrictions on the supply of development land have led to property price increases, penalizing city dwellers by leading to less dwelling space…”
Smart Growth Claim: Smart growth increases housing choice:
Echenique et al: "One downside of this policy is a substantial reduction in choice of dwelling types, with new dwellings being mainly apartments."
Smart Growth Claim: Smart growth does not increase traffic congestion:
Echenique et al: The authors cite research indicating that high average density is the main cause of highway congestion in Los Angeles. They also cite Reid Ewing (University of Utah) and Robert Cervero (University of California) who reviewed studies of household travel behavior finding that a doubling of density would lead to only a 5 percent reduction per person, or an increase of 90 percent in travel (Note 1). The authors add: "The obvious conclusion is that an increase in density will increase traffic congestion."
Smart Growth Claim: Smart growth reduces air pollution:
Echenique et al: "It can also increase the overall respiratory disease burden as exposure to traffic emissions is increased.
Smart Growth Claim: "Empty nesters" (aging households with no offspring at home) will seek smaller houses in the urban core:
Echenique et al: "There is, however, no substantial evidence that older couples leave their spacious houses and gardens…"
Smart Growth Claim: Smart growth improves the jobs-housing balance.
Echenique et al: "One of the main arguments for the dispersed city is that there is no longer a single center where most jobs and services occur. Urban areas, rather, exhibit a dispersed and often polycentric structure, bringing jobs and services closer to residents with a more complex movement pattern not readily served by public transport.
The authors suggest the following "takeaway:"
"Urban form policies can have important impacts on local environmental quality, economy, crowding, and social equity, but their influence on energy consumption and land use is very modest; compact development should not automatically be associated with the preferred spatial growth strategy."
Thus, the Echenique et research contradicts the thesis that compact development or smart growth should replace (make illegal) other regulatory regimes, including the more liberal dispersed pattern.
"Smart growth principles should not unquestioningly promote increasing levels of compaction on the basis of reducing energy consumption without also considering its potential negative consequences. In many cases, the potential socioeconomic consequences of less housing choice, crowding, and congestion may outweigh its very modest CO2 reduction benefits."
The British research is an important step toward focusing urban policies on objectives, rather than means. Cities are economic organisms. They have increased their share of the population 10 fold in just two centuries and been pivotal to unprecedented economic growth and affluence. People moved to the cities for economic opportunity, not to sample particular urban forms. Cities best serve their principal purpose and their residents best when they encourage economic growth. The fundamental objective is to maximize the discretionary income of residents, and this can be done while reasonable environmental standards are maintained. Yet, as Echenique et al and others have shown, smart growth tends to retard economic growth. In an age of teetering national economies, failing pension funds and the most uncertain fiscal environment in at least 80 years, the world needs cities to be unleashed for the economic growth. Urban policies that ignore economics need to be replaced with wholistic approaches strongly focused on the key reason that cities exist: to enrich their citizens.
Wendell Cox is a Visiting Professor, Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, Paris and the author of “War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life.”
——
Photo: Letchworth Garden City, London metropolitan region (by author).
Note 1: Calculation: According to the research, doubling the density of an area reduces vehicle travel per capita by 5 percent. With 200 percent of the previous population (double the density), vehicle travel would be increased 90 percent (200% [x] 95% [=] 190%).
Comments
180 responses to “Questioning the Messianic Conception of Smart Growth”
As a longtime resident of Newcastle Upon Tyne I was naturally interested in this…. But going back to the source publication reveals some interesting issues with this research:
Methodology –
1. The core tool for this research (MEPLAN-based software) is essentially a transport modelling tool; it has been criticised for it’s analytical structure (Abraham, Uni of Calgary, 1998, p.16):
“In particular, it is difficult to represent the types of disequilibrium and market failure that occur in labour or housing markets when vacancies are high, when unemployment is high or when markets are highly regulated.”
Hmm. Sounds exactly like the realities of the UK market are beyond the capabilities of this tool. Whoops.
Continuing with Abraham:
“The equilibrium of these markets is core to MEPLAN, and although this is appealing to many economists there is some evidence that it does not reflect the reality of household behaviour (Richardson, 1971).
The complexity of the equilibrium model means that it cannot be solved together with variables from the incremental model, with the consequence that the incremental model can only use variables from the previous time period. This eliminates any modelling of “foresight” where actors in one time period make decisions based on variables in future time periods.”
Whoops again. You mean this model struggles to handle forecasting which takes into account future variables? I guess no-one changes their mind / strategy / behaviour over time in the future then.
2. The MEPLAN tool was, however, not used to analyse the all-important social indicators that Wendell quotes. Not surprising as MEPLAN is a transport / landuse only tool, not strictly a social tool. From the Enrique paper:
“Finally, MEPLAN model outputs for each spatial policy option were used to drive further models to assess policy outcomes against 26 sustainability indicators that measure economic efficiency, social impact and equity, environmental protection, as well as loss of natural resources.”
And that is all we hear of the “model”. The analytic method is not referenced, no mention of how the “conclusions” published were REALLY arrived at. Sounds like this may have been highly subjective to me. Evidence would be good…but no.
This really is very, very poor. All of those social indicators are unsubstantiated, and for all intents and purposes not to be trusted without further evidence of the social analysis. I guess that is what happens when transport engineers stray outside of their field.
3. Straight back for Wendell’s reading skills – how could one miss a key line in the middle of the Enrique paper? (p.127 in the JAPA publication)
“The alternative spatial configurations of land use and transport make very little difference compared to the impacts of socioeconomic change and population growth.”
Well, well. So the issues are really a consequence of other issues than form.
4. One final item – Wendell’s footnote suggests that a double of density will only result in 10% less travel. Of course, that is notable in itself when fuel is the price it is in the UK right now. But Wendell also forgets to acknowledge the following from the Enrique paper: (p.130 in the JAPA publication)
“This small increase in automobile travel for dispersal becomes less surprising when considering the relative changes in development between the central and outer areas. For example, the dispersal option would have 19% fewer dwellings in Cambridge than the trend at the forecast year.”
So… “dispersal only incurs a small increase in vehicle travel” – but only on the basis of a much lower overall number of dwellings?!
Anyone would think the truth was being carefully reinterpreted by Wendell.
Ah well, true to form. Keep up the good work.
Of course, to return to my start point, my on-the ground experience rather than abstract modelling, if you talk to Tynesiders you will find a startlingly different reality. A city proud of its city centre. A city proud of its Metro light rail system. A social, engaging city where neighbours are far more socially connected than many other more dispersed cities. I guess they don’t really care much for the abstract pronouncements of academics…
Tim Robinson
Architect & Urban Designer, Auckland, NZ
Tim Robinson. Exactly how representative of “Tynesiders”, are the social circles you move in? It is like the last refuge of the “smart growther”, to talk about wonderful “vibrant” city centres and light rail systems. It is the majority of the populations in such places who are being misrepresented by the smart growthers, not by academics who are waking up about the perverse consequences of urban growth containment.
You got halfway to the inconvenient truth in your own “Fine Grain Analysis” of the Auckland Spatial Plan. You said, rightly, that it is “unworkable in its present form”. But you seemed to see the unworkable cost of developments that would increase density, as something that was able to be addressed by zoning and procedural changes.
Your failure of understanding, like many planners, is on the crucial question of whether urban growth constraints cause urban land costs to increase. You seem to believe they do not. This is counter-intuitive as well as counter to the most basic understanding of economic supply and demand theory.
Furthermore, you and your urban planning colleagues seem to have missed a now-abundant strain of academic analysis in the discipline of urban economics, of which the above paper is merely the latest and not necessarily the strongest, but certainly confirming rather than contrary. Have you spent much time absorbing anything from THIS list of academic analyses?
http://www.performanceurbanplanning.org/academics.html
In particular, I would direct you to everything authored and co-authored by the following academics whose focus is on Britain. Alan W. Evans. Paul Cheshire. Christian Hilber. Wouter Vermeulen.
You seem to try and explain away, above, the very much higher urban land costs in Britain, and the consequences for social justice, which are severe, as merely the result of “….other issues than form…..” You also accuse the paper’s authors of using a model of which it is said that “……it is difficult to represent the types of disequilibrium and market failure that occur in labour or housing markets when vacancies are high, when unemployment is high or when markets are highly regulated…..”
You can’t have this both ways. If the model is invalid because of disequilibria and market failure as a result of markets being highly regulated, then you can’t also say the highly regulated markets are not to blame for anything…..!
Alan W. Evans points out in “Economics and Land Use Planning” (2004) that the price of lots of differing sizes is a good prima facie evidence of whether people are being forced to under-consume urban land. In Britain, a larger lot fetches considerably MORE per square foot than a smaller lot, which indicates a distortionary scarcity of larger lots relative to smaller ones. In undistorted markets, the smaller the lot, the higher the price is per square foot. This is because in undistorted markets, the cost of raw land is derived from the rural land surrounding the city, and varies purely according to location efficiency and the cost of development and infrastructure.
But urban economists refer to “price discontinuities” where there ae regulatory boundaries between rural land and urban land; the price of raw land is inflated by thousands of percent in Britain, which leads to the price of raw land swamping everything else, swamping the costs of development and the costs of infrastructure and even swamping the “location efficiency” effect. This latter is why households and businesses in an inflated-land-price city have LESS choice than in a low-land-cost city. Compare the cost of a fringe McMansion AND a CBD condo in an affordable US city, with the same thing in a growth-constrained, unaffordable city, and guess in which city, people actually have “CHOICE”?
Alain Bertaud’s graphs of “spatial distribution of density” in a sample set of cities around the world reveal that in Portland, Seoul, and London, population is denser near the regulatory boundary than in suburbs closer to the centre, which is not what happens in cities that do not have distorted land markets. I believe this effect can be seen visibly on Google Earth in many other cities with urban growth constraints, including in Australia and NZ. Besides the deflection of population to the “less unaffordable” fringes, very long commutes from “less unaffordable” rural towns are also far more common in cities with growth constraints and inflated urban land costs.
In so far as there is a correlation between growth constraint and reduced petrol and energy consumption, this is obviously the result of inflated housing costs leaving households with less to spend on petrol and energy (higher petrol taxes and taxes on energy often contribute too). This is nothing to do with the prescription of a particular urban form; these prescriptions actually have perverse effects, not positive ones.
Another egregious error that the advocates of growth constraint make, is that reduced consumption of space and reduced transport costs under their preferred plans result in “NET” gains. This assumption has nothing whatsoever to support it in real life. The inflation in urban land cost under conditions of growth constraint always substantially more than swamp the ability of people to trade off space or transport costs in the cause of affordability. The reality is that within a few years of growth constraints being enforced, new lots of one tenth of an acre are several times the price of what a half acre used to be, and are the major part of housing costs even in spite of their small size (wheras the larger size lots in undistorted markets are only ever 15% to 20% of the total cost of housing).
Because the price of urban land always slopes up from fringe to centre, the inflated land price effect is more and more severe closer to the centre. This is why inner city Condos quadruple in price while fringe McMansions “only” double. If planners want to make the inner city the destination for more people than the fringe, the way to do this is to compulsorily acquire land nearer the centre and develop it at cost and sell the developments at cost, to “the deserving”; at the same time as penalising urban fringe development to make it more expensive. It would also be necessary to provide employment of the right kind for the new residents of the inner city; it is no use moving them to the inner city if their jobs are all at the urban fringe and in remote “industrial” zones.
So you have to re-invent, by force, the pre-automobile city. The market, which means the real estate market, works completely contrary to this objective. “Subsidies” of sprawl are vastly over-rated. We should be learning this from the perverse consequences of blunt regulatory prescriptions. There are clear market forces and consumer choices at work running in the opposite direction to the plans. So only compulsory acquisition of land will forestall the “market” effects. Good luck with that.
Hopefully you are starting to see some connection between this and what you found in your Fine Grain Analysis of Auckland.
It is the conclusions of Wendell Cox on the correlation between density and congestion that are logical, and yours that are illogical. Of course if population is doubled and average travel only drops a few percent, congestion will be very much worse. In fact because traffic ends up stop-start instead of free-flowing in some parts of the network, not only is the number of vehicles higher but actual throughput of the network is very much lower. International data now show that the USA’s infamous low density cities have had remarkably stable work-trip travel times while it is cities that have planned against cars that now have far worse congestion and local air pollution and long trip times for trips of all kinds. The USA’s low density cities have more miles travelled and more petrol consumption because the people have the disposable income and the trips of all kinds are easier to make.
The decentralisation of employment and improved jobs-housing balance is the modern day norm now, regardless of density. But trips of ALL kinds take longer in growth-constrained cities with higher density everywhere (such as London and other British cities), even to local shops or dropping off children at school. Advocates of urban growth containment are making an egregious failure of scientific method when they assume that linear gains in urban efficiency will be the result of increased density. In fact the inefficiencies of congestion vastly outweigh the “gains” in shorter distances and mode shift, and this is before we even start looking at the “cost” in urban land that is thousands of times more expensive.
The various academics I quote above also find a momentous connection between Britain’s planning system and lower economic productivity per se. Cheshire and Sheppard, “The Welfare Economics of Land Use Planning” (2002) find the effect on the economy to be equivalent to a 4% income tax, and the research at the LSE since states that that figure will be rising.
There are actually numerous ways in which LOW urban density is far more compatible with “sustainability” targets than high density is. It is utterly irrational of the whole environmental movement to be so fixated on high density “solutions”. Car use is just one facet of energy consumption and one that has become rapidly more and more efficient, by the way (in contrast to public transport). Low density living can make much better use of sun and fresh air and wind and grow-your-own and recycling and composting and barbecues and fireplaces and shade trees and interaction with nature (in contrast to having to concrete over everything where the people are crammed in together) and surface permeability and local biodiversity and “geothermal” heating and cooling systems. I pick that a model city of the low density sustainability kind would beat the high density kind hands down.
The high density model also seems to assume that people will all work in jobs that require very little space and consume very little resources i.e. bureaucracies and head offices and so on. This is a very odd belief to combine with a belief that resource use will be diminished in the new economy, because office jobs can only exist as a draw-down on the wealth created in the more land-intensive, resource-using sectors of the economy; this in the urban economy as well as the rural one. An international financial transactions tax would be the coup-de-grace to Britain’s economy because the flow of money into London from all around the world would reduce, and Britain has already strangled all the traditional wealth creating urban industries it might have had.
It is a double irony that many of the left-wingers who hate global finance, also love the mass public transport systems in Manhattan and London; but remain blissfully unaware that if “global capital” was disempowered as they wish for, suddenly their wonderful model high density cities would need to find something else to do to exist on, and this would certainly involve using more land and resources and actually getting hands dirty again.
“You got halfway to the inconvenient truth in your own “Fine Grain Analysis” of the Auckland Spatial Plan. You said, rightly, that it is “unworkable in its present form”. But you seemed to see the unworkable cost of developments that would increase density , as something that was able to be addressed by zoning and procedural changes. ”
great stuff
Tee hee.
Did I use the word ‘vibrant’? Naughty me, should have stuck to my stereotype.
Tim Robinson
Architect & Urban Designer, Auckland, NZ
Fair comment; I should credit you with NOT using it. It must have taken a sustained effort to wean yourself off it. Did you need many treatments from “Vibrant Cities Anonymous”? Or did you “not start”?
Actually, I could read just about anything into your comment “proud of their city”. A cave man might be proud of HIS “city”, too.
(Frank Lloyd Wright said inner city dwellers are descended from cave men, everyone else from hunter-gatherers).
And I understand that even Aucklanders are proud of THEIR city. So there is no accounting for tastes…….
While we are discussing this, I must refer to Patrick Troy’s 1996 book, “The Perils of Urban Consolidation”. The extracts I have saved from that book cover just about every argument that could be thrown up on this subject. It is one of the single best books that should be compulsory reading for urban planners.
Troy is especially scathing about the “…..yearning by some commentators and policy advisors to return to some halcyon past, where such urban lifestyles (eating out, engaging in the pursuits of a romanticised cafe society, enjoying the morning coffee over newspapers, exploring antique shops, bookshops and art galleries) never were the daily life experience of more than a small minority…….The proliferation of coffee shops, bistros, restaurants and sidewalk cafes in parts of our cities over recent years is a response to changing social behavior, increasing affluence, the commodification of leisure, and to the needs of tourists, but most of us use them only on special occasions or as part of our recreation…….The street gangs and their associated territorial disputes now evident in some American cities mostly come from high density environments but proponents of high density presumably do not wish to argue that they are a result of density…….”
Troy scathingly points out that in some cultures, the men enjoy these fashionable lifestyles while the women remain at home performing chores and caring for children, and “first generation migrants” to Australia may well perpetuate this practice but there is no guarantee that their descendants will.
Troy points out that much of the cultural and social arguments surrounding this issue (activities for youth, etc) do not need to relate to urban form at all. Also, the often alleged benefit of “community”, does not eventuate in real life in high density communities, where people react to preserve the lesser privacy and personal space they have, withdrawing from contact with others and limiting personal interactions. Furthermore, higher density living often involves a need for tenants associations etc to negotiate rules that inevitably lead to disagreements and ill feeling, on such things as the playing of music, the keeping of pets, and how community space is to be used. Community space and local amenities are often already inadequate for higher numbers of residents, and opportunity for privacy often is minimal. Troy also points out that requiring people to keep moving as their household size and circumstances change, is an effect that undermines the development of “community”.
The following is another major insight that few people besides Troy possess:
“….At its heart the effect of the policy of consolidation is to defend and further entrench central city interests. It fails to recognise the multi-centred functioning of the existing cities. The policy relies on the alleged benefits of a highly centralised fixed rail public transport system without acknowledging to whom the benefits accrue at whose cost.
Because the rich can always obtain as much space as they want and can travel freely about the city, the consolidation policy is effectively targeted at lower income groups. Rather than increase choice for those with the least resources the policy has the effect of reducing it. The rich are also better able to migrate to other centres and use the protection of covenants and other legal devices. The only groups which have to endure the reduction in living space and housing standards are those on the lowest incomes…..”
Troy goes on providing insight after insight:
“……One of the difficulties of critics of the policy is that it is extremely difficult for them to obtain access to information about the costs of urban services or to require that the information is made available on comparative bases. Political proponents of the policy are understandably loath to open the issue for genuine debate. Consideration of the policy is also affected by the traditional concerns in exploring many urban policy issues: those adversely affected by the policy may be weak, unorganised and have only a general public interest, whereas those who stand to gain or who are directly involved in the policy’s formulation have much to gain or lose, are strong and highly organised, and have direct access to political power……”
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