Recently, the Journal of the American Planning Association (JAPA) published research that directly challenged prevailing views in urban planning. In an article entitled Growing Cities Sustainably, Marcial H. Echenique, and Anthony J. Hargreaves from Cambridge University, Gordon Mitchell (University of Leeds) and Anil Namdeo (University of Newcastle) found that compact development (smart growth) had only a marginal impact on sustainable development and should not "automatically be associated with the preferred spatial growth strategy" (See Questioning The Messianic Conception of Smart Growth). This was particularly unsettling to the powers-that-be in urban planning, who have struggled for years – predating the current greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reduction concerns – to make anything but smart growth virtually illegal.
The Reaction
Soon after, the JAPA editor (Randy Crane of UCLA) was criticized by fellow academics in the "PLANET" listserv for permitting publication, at least partly because the research questioned the value of compact development (smart growth) in achieving environmental sustainability.
In early November, a session was held at the 53rd Annual Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning conference in Cincinnati entitled "Spinning Wheels and Witch Hunts: Debating the Merits of Planning Research," devoted to discussion of what at least some considered the heresy of Echenique, et al. The conference program description of the session included questions such as the following:
"What are the dangers of applying the “scientific method” in planning?"
My comment: Any dangers are problems of planners, not the scientific method
"How do ethics, politics and normative values factor into what gets published?"
My comment: It is hoped as little as possible, which is why concern is expressed here.
"On the issue of compact cities, are we spinning our wheels, or are we provocatively challenging conventional wisdom? Is the problem of sprawl still an open question? Do these debates ever end, or, with JAPA’s help, do they keep going indefinitely?"
My comment: The debates must continue until perfect knowledge has been achieved and all relevant information has been objectively considered (with or without JAPA). Neither condition has been satisfied.
A Report from the Front
Professor Lisa Schweitzer of the University of Southern California provided comments on the session in an article entitled ACSP Reflections #1 Should Researchers be Allowed to Question Smart Growth?. Professor Schweitzer describes only the beginning of the session, indicating that she left because the room was too crowded and out of a concern that the authors would not be represented. This is despite the fact that the purpose of the session was, in effect, to discuss whether the researchers were "out of bounds" in raising the issue. Even abbreviated, Professor Schweitzer’s account raises substantial concerns, which are described below.
The session began with a critique of the Echenique, et al research by Professor Emily Talen of Arizona State University. Professor Schweitzer characterized Talen’s criticism as boiling down to "practitioners have a tough time convincing people to pursue smart growth."
Censoring Criticisms of Smart Growth?
Professor Schweitzer continues: "The problem with Talen’s idea is that it suggests researchers ‘owe’ it to practitioners to only inquire within the framework that compact development is unambiguously meritorious and sprawl is ambiguously not." Professor Schweitzer rightly questions how compact development can be considered "unambiguously good" if it is not examined closely.
In fact, there is no room for icons or the sacred in academic inquiry. The imperative to question is the very justification for publication of the Echenique, et al research.
Avoided Issues
Indeed, there is considerable evidence that compact development has not been examined closely enough. For example, urban planning research has usually discounted, ignored or even denied the association of compact development with inordinately higher house prices relative to incomes – despite massive evidence to the contrary. This is because housing is the largest element in the cost of living, higher house prices necessarily reduce discretionary incomes and increase poverty.
This is an issue not only for high-income cities but also for developing ones. New York University Professor Shlomo Angel expresses concern that: …strict measures to protect the natural environment by blocking urban expansion could "choke the supplies of affordable lands on the fringes of cities and limit the abilities of ordinary people the house themselves." (See: A Planet of People: Angel’s Planet of Cities).
Similar concern is raised by Brandon Fuller of Charter Cities: … if governments respond by trying to contain urban expansion with greenbelts or urban growth boundaries that artificially restrict the supply of developable land, the result will be prices and rents higher than many arriving families can afford.
The association between higher densities and more intensive traffic congestion is also avoided in much of the planning press. Echenique, et al are an exception, citing research showing that when density rises, vehicle travel rises almost as much. This is no small matter, since expanding mobility throughout metropolitan areas means more economic growth (read more affluence and less poverty). This is before considering the negative impacts of greater traffic intensity on localized air pollution and health.
Sanctioning Objective Inquiry?
The need for greater openness in academia also caught the attention of Australian transport and urban development consultant Alan Davies (in Will Compact Cities Deliver on the Environment), who wrote:
There needs to be more consideration of evidence-based research by those interested in cities. One reason why there isn’t is illustrated by the reaction to the Echinique et al paper by some members of the US Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning (ACSA).
On a similar note, Professor Schweitzer noted that it is common for advocates of compact development to charge skeptics with unethical behavior. This creates an environment that is not conducive to developing objective and reliable strategies that effectively addresses objectives such as environmental sustainability.
Back to the (17th Century) Future?
Open minds have always been a threat to dogma and its proponents. Progress comes from the objective application of science, which is the very opposite of dogma.
Yet, there is a long tradition of sanctioning thought and publication that questions the conventional wisdom. It is not an honorable tradition. In the 17th century, Galileo was bold enough to challenge the doctrines of the Church about the relationship of Earth to the sun. The Church determined that it was inappropriate for him to publish such views and Galileo spent the rest of his life under house arrest. Of course, doctrines change, especially when exposed to the light of new or ignored evidence.
Researchers like Echenique, et al should not be confined to an ivory tower equivalent of house arrest. Their work and that of researchers disagreeing with them should be roundly debated in an open, academically free environment. All of this requires a separation of church and urban planning.
Wendell Cox is a Visiting Professor, Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, Paris and the author of “War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life.”
——
Photo: Sather Tower, University of California, Berkeley (by author)
Comments
47 responses to “Separation of Church and Urban Planning”
Generally, British academics are rebelling against the urban planning system over there just as the same unreason is sweeping the rest of the West. Peter Hall et al did a good hatchet job way back in 1973, with a massive two-volume report, “The Containment of Urban England”. It is available cheap on Amazon because libraries and institutions are disposing of their copies. Actually, students should be borrowing them and reading them.
Little more damnation of the planning system in the UK was required, after this report was published. But the British politicians and public (and media) simply never learn.
The UK gives us a model of what “smart growth”, under a different name, actually does after 60 years. Worse congestion, longer trip-to-work times, reduced urban productivity, a housing unaffordability crisis (regardless of drastically reduced size of lots), increased social exclusion and inequality, and more.
From the “Performance Urban Planning” website, here are useful papers re the UK urban planning disaster:
(Go to the original page for hyperlinks)
http://www.performanceurbanplanning.org/academics.html
CHESHIRE, Paul, and SHEPPARD, Stephen: “The Welfare Economics of Land Use Planning” (2001)
CHESHIRE, Paul, and SHEPPARD, Stephen: The introduction of price signals into land use planning decision-making : a proposal (2005)
CHESHIRE, Paul, and VERMEULEN, Wouter: “Land markets and their regulation: the welfare economics of planning” (2009)
CHESHIRE, Paul: “Urban land markets and policy failures”. (2009)
CHESHIRE, Paul (2009): “Urban Containment, Housing Affordability and Price Stability: Irreconcilable Goals”
CHESHIRE, Paul (2008): Discussion of the Barker Review of Housing Supply
EVANS, Alan: “Economics, Real Estate and the Supply of Land” (2004)
EVANS, Alan: “Economics and Land Use Planning” (2004)
EVANS, Alan (1999): “The Land Market and Government Interventions”
EVANS, Alan (2006): Submission to the Barker Review of Housing Supply
EVANS, Alan; and HARTWICH, Oliver: “Unaffordable Housing: Fables and Myths” (2005)
EVANS, Alan; and HARTWICH, Oliver: “Bigger Better Faster More: Why Some Countries Plan Better Than Others” (2005)
EVANS, Alan; and HARTWICH, Oliver: “Better Homes, Greener Cities” (2006)
EVANS, Alan; and HARTWICH, Oliver: “The Best Laid Plans: How Planning Prevents Economic Growth” (2007)
EVANS, Alan; and UNSWORTH, Rachael: “Densities and Consumer Choice” (2008)
HILBER, Christian; and VERMEULEN, Wouter: “The Impacts of Restricting Housing Supply on House Prices and Affordability” (2010)
And I have sent them the following recommendations for inclusion:
CHESHIRE, Paul (2006): “Resurgent Cities, Urban Myths and Policy Hubris: What We Need to Know”
http://www2.lse.ac.uk/geographyandenvironment/pdf/resurgent cities urban myths and policy hubris.pdf
ECHENIQUE, Marcial; Anthony HARGREAVES, Gordon MITCHELL and Anil NAMDEO (2012): “Growing Cities Sustainably”
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01944363.2012.666731
ECHENIQUE, Marcial, and Rob HOMEWOOD (2003): “The Future of Suburbs and Exurbs”
http://trg1.civil.soton.ac.uk/itc/subex01_main.pdf
HILBER, Christian; and Wouter VERMEULEN (2012): “The Impact of Supply Constraints on House Prices in England”
http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/publications/download/sercdp0119.pdf
MELIA, Steve; Graham PARKHURST; and Hugh BARTON (2011): “The Paradox of Intensification”
http://eprints.uwe.ac.uk/10555/2/melia-barton-parkhurst_The_Paradox_of_Intensification.pdf
The claim that increased urban density involves greater efficiency of energy use in transport, is a controversial one. Newman and Kenworthy’s influential work has been critiqued by several authors. For example:
Michael Breheny (1995) “The Compact City and Transport Energy Consumption”
Ray Brindle (1994) “Lies, Damned Lies and Automobile Dependence”
Ray Brindle (1996) “Transport and Urban Form: The Not-So-Vital Link”
Alan W. Evans (1998) “Dr Pangloss Finds His Profession: Sustainability, Transport and Land Use Planning in Britain”
Alan W. Evans (2012) “Planning, Density, Fuel Use and Emissions: a Survey”
Michael Breheny and Ian Gordon (1997) “Densities in the Sustainable City”
Ian Gordon (1997) “Densities, Urban Form and Travel Behaviour”
Ian Gordon (2008) “Density and the Built Environment”; Michael Wegener (1998) “Sustainable urban spatial structures: do we need to rebuild our cities?”
Marcial H. Echenique et al, (2012) “Growing Cities Sustainably: Does Urban Form Really Matter?”
Steve Melia et al (2011) “The Paradox of Intensification”
Paul Mees (2010) “Density and Transport Mode Choice in Australian, Canadian and US Cities”.
The reduction in urban footprint from increasing the density of housing, is not proportional to the increase in housing density, because typically more than 50% of an urban area is not housing. However road congestion increases in an exponential relationship with housing density. This is because roads on which traffic once flowed freely at crucial times of the day, become “stop-start” and end up carrying FEWER vehicles at those times of day than when housing density was lower. “Spill-back” of traffic occurs onto previously uncongested parts of the network. “Mode shift” is never sufficient to compensate for this effect.
Even including Manhattan’s level of density in data sets, finds no reversal of the trend to addition of numbers of vehicles in the given road space, as additional population is added. The rate at which vehicles are added merely reduces slightly for each increase in the population in the given space.
The data on trip times (as opposed to distances) and local air pollution, do not favour higher densities.
Toronto Board of Trade Paper:
Barcelona 48.4 minutes (ROUND TRIP)
Dallas 53.0
Milan 53.4
Seattle 55.5
Boston 55.8
Los Angeles 56.1
San Francisco 57.4
Chicago 61.4
Berlin 63.2
Halifax 65.0
Sydney 66.0
Madrid 66.1
Calgary 67.0
Vancouver 67.0
New York 68.1
Stockholm 70.0
London 74.0
Montreal 76.0
Toronto 80.0
http://bot.com/Content/NavigationMen…2010_FINAL.pdf
Demographia 2009 “Work Trip Travel: US Metropolitan Areas”
http://www.demographia.com/db-2009jtw.pdf
Data on traffic congestion now tends to show US cities up as better performing than European ones.
http://www.newgeography.com/content/002169-united-states-less-congestion-europe-\inrix
A Recent OECD study contained a graph that was published in the New York Times; which has aroused much controversy among those who regard the USA’s cities as the worst possible models of urban form:
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/14/world-of-commuters/
“……..Americans have some of the shortest commuting times in the developed world, according to a new report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development……”
“…….According to organization’s time use data, the average commuting time in the United States is about 28 minutes (similar to a separate measure from the United States Census Bureau). That is 10 minutes shorter than the average commuting time for all member countries, of 38 minutes, and longer than the time spent traveling to work in only three rich countries (Israel, Denmark and Sweden)……”
Bob Poole points out in his newsletter “Surface Transportation Innovations”, October 2011:
“……..The Census Bureau’s American Community Survey data on commuting in 2010 recently appeared. They put the average U.S. commute time at 25.3 minutes. Worst in the nation is the New York urbanized area at 34.6 minutes, with the Washington, DC region second at 33.9 and Chicago fourth at 30.7. The notorious Los Angeles/Orange County urbanized area—with the largest aggregate amount of
congestion—didn’t even make the top 10 in commute time, coming in at #17 with 28.1 minutes. It’s worth noting that the longest trip times are in places with traditional central business districts and relatively high transit mode shares……”
Planners might have hoped that mode shift to public transport would negate the effect of higher density on road congestion, but this has never happened anywhere in the world. The flawed assumption underlying our modern planning fashions is that increases in density might lead to linear reductions in car use. In fact, it perfectly logically leads to increases in car use per square mile/ square kilometer of the urban area, increased congestion, and increased local
pollution.
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2011/09/How-Smart-Growth-and-Livability\
-Intensify-Air-Pollution
http://www.publicpurpose.com/ut-tti2007dens.pdf
http://americandreamcoalition.org/landuse/densityconge.pdf
Recent “World Health Organization” data on air pollution is not flattering to
the higher density cities:
http://www.who.int/phe/health_topics/outdoorair/databases/en/index.html
Cities with higher median multiples have lower “discretionary incomes” after housing costs. Therefore there is highly likely to be a correlation between policies of strict urban growth containment and reduced CO2 emissions, but the mechanism is not necessarily efficiency gains, in urban form or anything else, but a reduction in household discretionary spending of all kinds.
There are equity effects to be considered here. Gibbons, Overman and Resende in “Real Earnings Disparities in Britain” (2011) find that the greatest increases in “proportion of income spent on housing” as urban land prices inflate, is both in the lowest income groups and in the very highest income groups. This is because the highest income groups are paying increasing amounts of money to continue to “buy their way out” of the rationing system – their tennis courts, multiple garages, large gardens, swimming pools, multiple houses, and so on, are costing them quite a lot more, especially if at “premium” locations in the “city”.
Meanwhile, the land thus consumed without regard to the intention of the “rationing” process, requires “compensation” via the land market mechanism; lower income earners making do with less and less space, at ever-more inefficient and undesirable locations, for which they still have to pay more and more. Every “attribute” of housing is rationed by price, and the price-rationing of “space” spills over into necessary rationing of quality and location and condition and amenities.
There is no example in the world where “density” has successfully ameliorated the effect on housing affordability. All the “affordable” cities in the annual “Demographia” Reports have minimal urban fringe growth constraint whether regulatory or geographic, and have much lower prices per LARGE lot in new developments than the unaffordable cities have per VERY SMALL lot.
There is really only 3 factors that cause reduced trip-to-work times:
1) Dispersion of employment and jobs-housing balance
2) Lower urban land cost and flatter urban rent curve
3) Capacity of the road network where most of the travel is actually taking place: i.e. intra-and inter-suburb. Expansion of this capacity is far more cost effective than expansion of radial highways serving a heavily centralised urban economy.
David Hartgen and Gregory Fields (2009) “Gridlock and Growth”:
http://reason.org/files/ps371_growth_gridlock_cities_full_study.pdf
points out that besides “decentralization” of urban form being efficient (a free market response to congestion and high CBD rents) focusing congestion reducing measures on “the CBD” does not improve productivity in the whole region anywhere near as much as reducing congestion “elsewhere”. This is logical if one considers the following.
Firstly, there is actually a lot more jobs “elsewhere”, than what there is in the CBD (Cities with more than 30% of employment in their CBD’s are international outliers). Secondly, capacity expansions on “suburban” roads and arteries will be proportionately far more significant – adding 1 more lane to 1 lane, or to 2 lanes, is obviously far more effective than adding one lane to 8 or 10 or 12. Thirdly, traffic proceeding from suburban homes to suburban jobs will not be all going one way. So road space is utilized to the maximum in both directions at both ends of the day. Managing “cross traffic” conflicts with interchanges and smart intersections becomes an important issue for efficiency.
Fourthly, land rent curves are far flatter when urban form is “dispersed”, and it is far more affordable for any household to “locate” near any job or amenity. But under a “monocentric” urban model, “relocating” closer to a job will be financially difficult, apart from the fact that this difficulty is worse anyway in growth-constrained cities with inflated land prices relative to incomes. Of course, households do not relocate every time one earner in it changes their job. There are costs associated with moving, and households do in any case have other costs to consider besides the commuting costs of one of their members. Therefore, it is likely that productivity will be higher in a city where better “automobility” (via an efficient polycentric road network) enables much more choice of optimum job-switching with reduced necessity for costly household relocations in the process.
Fifthly, congestion involves “cost”, and “agglomeration” involves “efficiency”. Is it not odd that an “additional road user” is now most commonly regarded as “imposing a negative externality” rather than “participating in an increase in agglomeration efficiency”? (Not to mention the numerous other “positive externalities” that are also generated from “automobility”, such as productivity and employment growth. And note also the “historical trivia” subheading at the end of this essay). But we can (and in fact urban “market economies” do) minimize the congestion cost and maximize the agglomeration benefit. Crucially, agglomeration can suffer from the law of diminishing returns. But there is actually no need, in fact it is counter-productive, to “agglomerate” all kinds of employment in one location. Agglomeration efficiencies are higher when there are multiple agglomerations by type, rather than a single one of all types of employment. Agglomeration efficiencies, in most cities, are actually of several different types. It is completely unnecessary for production line manufacturers to be located nearby to law firms, for example, to achieve agglomeration efficiencies. (In fact, urban planners have for generations, been “zoning” against undesirable mixtures of activities in urban areas). Silicon Valley is the classic example of the “suburban” agglomeration efficiency. And under the conditions of multiple nodes of agglomeration, congestion externalities are minimized at the same time as agglomeration efficiencies are at the very least “not foregone”.
In “Planning for Cars in Cities: Planners, Engineers, and Freeways in the 20th Century” by Jeffrey Brown, Eric Morris, and Brian Taylor; we learn that planners and engineers in most US cities following WW2, intended to expedite decentralization with extensive inter-suburban arterial networks; the Federal Government’s insistence on highways which focused on CBD’s wherever they interacted with cities, was resisted by these planners. Unfortunately, the fact that the Federal Government was providing the funding, overcame this resistance. In spite of this, decentralization has proceeded apace, driven by market responses to congestion and elevated city centre land rents. Imagine how much more efficient this decentralization might have been had the planners of the 1950’s not been over-ruled by events driven by the Federal Government.
This was particularly unsettling to the powers-that-be in urban planning, who have struggled for years – predating the current greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reduction concerns – to make anything but smart growth virtually illegal. bwin
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