The "urban scaling" research of Geoffrey West, Luis Bettencourt, Jose Lobo, Deborah Strumsky, Dirk Helbing and Christian Kuhnert on cities has attracted considerable attention (references below). They have provided strong quantitative evidence, based upon voluminous econometric analysis that cities tend to become more efficient as they grow in population.
Specifically, West, a theoretical physicist, and his team show that measures such as gross domestic product per capita and income per capita rise, on average, 15 percent with each doubling of city population. They draw parallels with the animal kingdom, noting that larger animals tend to be more efficient than smaller ones, and comparing elephants, efficient because of their size, to cities.
This is all very attractive, especially the elephant analogy, which appropriately suggests that cities are organisms.
The Urban Organism
Yet the research has been widely reported to suggest that density as opposed to size is the key to urban productivity. West et al look at cities as "integrated economic and social units," at the "level of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs); in the European Union, larger urban zones (LUZs); and in China, urban administrative units." This is the economic, or functional manifestation of the urban organism (the urban area, the area of continuous urbanization, is the physical manifestation). In so doing, West, et al demonstrate a familiarity with urban geography that is all too rare, even among analysts who have studied cities for far longer.
The key issue here is what constitutes a “city”. New York is a good, example, as headquarters to the national media, a world class city and as urban as it gets in the United States. But the New York metropolitan area, the "integrated economic and social unit" is not Manhattan or even five boroughs. It stretches from a bit west of Blooming Grove Township, in Pike County 25 miles west of Port Jervis, a city 90 miles from Manhattan located in western Orange County, NY, to Montauk Point in Suffolk County and from north of West Point, in Putnam County to Egg Harbor Township, in Ocean County, New Jersey (that’s nearly 30 miles south of Toms River). Suffice it to say most of this vast region is not dense at all.
Divining Density
Yet, some analysts have characterized the West, et al research as being about higher densities, Richard Florida wrote in The Wall Street Journal:
Researchers at the Santa Fe Institute have been able to demonstrate that bigger, denser cities literally speed up the metabolism of daily life.
That’s only half right. The research was about city size, not density, as the authors indicate (below).
All too typical of the way that suburbanized America is disparaged by the media, Jonah Lehrer, of The New York Times sputtered that:
In recent decades, though, many of the fastest-growing cities in America, like Phoenix and Riverside, Calif., have given us a very different urban model. These places have traded away public spaces for affordable single-family homes, attracting working-class families who want their own white picket fences.
In reality, the kind of suburbs found in Phoenix and Riverside-San Bernardino will be found surrounding every one of the nation’s core cities, including New York, an urban area that covers more land area than any urban area in the world at 3,450 square miles (8,935 square kilometers), according to the Census Bureau. That’s twice the expanse of the Los Angeles urban area. Granted, New York’s Hudson Valley suburbs are greener and more affluent than most in Phoenix, but their population density is nearly the same. Moreover, neither Phoenix nor New York (think Staten Island or much of Long Island) should be ashamed of attracting "working class families who want their own white picket fences." Why demean aspiration?
Urban blogger James Withow refers to their "remarkable findings" that "raise interesting policy issues on density." Another analyst wrote "West offers data that shows cities create economies of scale that suburbs and small towns cannot match." This is patently absurd since, as noted above, West did not study any part of the urban organism below the metropolitan area. There was no attempt to make a distinction between the productivity of say, Manhattan or Brooklyn, to White Plains or even Blooming Spring Township. No core city or suburb is an "integrated economic and social unit."
West et al on Density
Indeed, West et al make it very clear that their findings have nothing to do with urban population density. They tested for correlations population growth and income, patents and violent crimes, and found "no significant trend exists between residuals for income, patents and violent crime and population growth or density." They further note their equations showed an "R2 consistent with zero" (in every day English, that means they found no relationship between density and the other variables).
This conclusion was correct, though comparing metropolitan area densities is less than ideal. Just to check, we reran the equations with urban density data and found that this approach too produced an "R2 consistent with zero," not only for income, patents and violent crimes, but also gross metropolitan product.
West et al pointed out that:
The shape of the city in space, including for example its residential density, matter much less than (and are mostly accounted for by) population size in predicting indicators of urban performance. Said more explicitly, whether a city looks more like New York or Boston or instead like Los Angeles or Atlanta has a vanishing effect in predicting its socio-economic performance. (emphasis by author)
In other words, the same improvement in urban performance would be predicted from doubling the population of Atlanta, with an urban density of 1,700 per square mile (700 per square kilometer) as in New York, with more than three times Atlanta’s density or Los Angeles’ with more than four (Los Angeles is highest density large urban area in the United States).
It turns out – counter the misunderstandings of some urbanists – that higher or lower density simply does not matter according to the West, et al research.
It’s About Density Thresholds and Efficient Labor Markets
Cities (integrated economic and social units) are created by reaching urban density thresholds. They tend to become more productive as they grow, so long as they are not too large to function as a labor market. Density doesn’t matter particularly. Indeed, the general tendency is for cities to become more dispersed (less dense) as they grow, as indicated by longer term data in the US, Canada and around the world.
For example, the Seattle and Houston urban areas have population densities much lower than those of Paris, London, Hong Kong and even Los Angeles – yet they still rank higher among the most productive metropolitan areas in the world, according to the Brookings Institution Global Metropolitan Monitor 2011. Brookings rates Hartford as the most productive metropolitan area in the world, yet its urban population density is nearly as low as Atlanta’s.
Finally, the Brookings list excludes the world’s most dense major city, Dhaka. That’s because the economic output of its 15 million people is insufficient to make a list that includes cities one-tenth its size. Dhaka combines the highest population density in the world with perhaps the lowest per capita economic output of any megacity in the world.
Allowing Organisms to Grow
As West et al suggests, cities, like elephants, are organisms. Both expand (dare we say "sprawl") as they grow. This should be cause for concern, given planning dictates that would restrain urban organism, such as urban growth boundaries. These restraints are akin to depriving a large mammal of sufficient space to roam and feed. That’s no way to treat a productive organism, or a great city.
——-
Reference Materials:
Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities
Urban Scaling and Its Deviations: Revealing the Structure of Wealth, Innovation and Crime across Cities
2010 US Urban Area Data
——-
African Bush Elephant photo by flickr user nickandmel2006.
Wendell Cox is a Visiting Professor, Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, Paris and the author of “War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life.”
Comments
38 responses to “Density is Not the Issue: The Urban Scaling Research”
In the case of the UK economy, academic findings since the McKinsey Institute’s 1998 study “Driving Productivity and Growth in the UK Economy”, have been confirming that the UK’s productivity has been, and is being REDUCED by its “growth constraint” urban planning. It is something like 20% to 40% LOWER because of this. Alan W. Evans’ 2 books published in 2004 are outstanding. The Spatial Economics Research Centre at the London School of Economics is steadily producing new papers relating to this.
I don’t know when the mainstream planning and economics professions are going to wake up to all this. As Alan W. Evans says:
“….the planning system has had a significant economic impact on the UK economy since it came into effect 50 years ago, and that as a result the British GNP per capita is lower than it would otherwise have been……This negative impact is not usually noted by economists seeking reasons for the low rate of growth of the British economy, but that is because few economists have any interest whatsoever in planning. Their whole training leads them to ignore matters related to land and location, so they tend to consider only those factors conventionally considered “economic” – investment, training, labour relations, management, etc. But since the planning system is designed to restrain physical development, it would be strange indeed if it did not restrain economic development as well….”
It is not hard to see the same effects occurring in California and Australia and everywhere else that urban growth constraints are strangling the urban economy (which happens to be the most important part of the economy, period).
Moncler Outlet outlet brands,nhan cuoi such as down jackets, except for some special offers, this year’s new down jacket prices and more in the thousand or so, compared with previous years up 100-300 dollars.Louis Vuitton Online Store is filled with a myriad of mesmerizing attire options to draw inspiration for this season.If you are ready to buy a home you can opt to have the newest Phoenix AZ homes for sale or Tucson real estate sent to Canada Goose Outlet you.The Louis Vuitton Official nhan nu Website decided to combine ethnic details with contemporary day chuyen architecture and even Punk elements
Some of the suppliers – Martinrea, máy ảnh chuyên nghiệp chân máy ảnh máy nghe nhạc ipod máy ghi âm phụ kiện laptop điện thoại bàn tổng đài điện thoại tổng đài panasonic máy fax panasonicGetrag and Rassini – are themselves major international players in the auto industry. It no longer makes sense to speak of the North American auto industry in terms of the Detroit Big Three or even the Big Three plus foreign makers
Finally, how will the financial crisis of 2008 affect the North American auto industry? It might be interesting to examine the impact of the financial crisis on the Big Three, on foreign producers and on key automotive suppliers. With North America’s population pushing toward 550 million, one could assume, because of the impact of delayed purchasing over the past years. van phong pham The interesting questions are how much – and what – will be produced domestically and, perhaps most interesting of all, who will be the most important players in the industry.
máy quay sony máy nghe nhạc sony tủ lạnh toshiba tủ lạnh panasonic máy giặt electrolux máy tính tiền Another key issue is how all of these components arrive at their destinations on time loading dock in London on time. lò vi sóng nồi cơm điện máy xay sinh tố máy đánh trứng máy xay thịt máy làm sữa chua máy làm sữa đậu nành máy pha cà phê thiết bị lọc nước quạt không cánh bàn ủi bàn là máy hút bụi This can lead into discussions about factors that impede the system including congestion, the lack of maintenance, the failure of the NAFTA
The North thiết bị văn phòng American automotive sector is structured by supply chains that cross national borders and link specialized production facilities spread widely through the three nations The three national governments have continued to emphasize that NAFTA is a classic free trade agreement among sovereign nations. To address this issue, students might consider: . What is it? máy may brother máy hút mùi máy sấy tóc máy đo huyết áp màn hình samsung máy lạnh panasonic tai nghe sony
We know that getting a Vietnam visa is just a small task in preparing for your trip to Vietnam, but often consumes a lot of time and money. Because some people think that getting a Vietnam visa is very complicated, they decide to cancel their trip to Vietnam Vietnam visas We think that in these cases, people have not ben updated on Vietnam visa renewal achievements.
In Vietnam, visa-on-arrival started in 2003 and as of 2011 it is the predominant way tourists from Australia, North America and Europe come into Vietnam Visa to vietnam As Vietnam opens its economic and travelling door, the number of arrivals is on a sharp increase, every time it is counted. Following the rise in the number of international visitors, visa-on-arrival service has grown accordingly to meet the demand. Pioneering this trend vietnam visa online is the international renowned service. Please find below information to see if getting visa upon arrival at the airport good for you or not.
Vietnam visa on arrival is the cheapest way for you. With us, you only pay 20 USD or less, depending on the number of people in your group. And visa for vietnam you will receive authorization to receive visas at the airport. after getting the paper work, Vietnam visa application you will pay an additional fixed charge for each person is: 25 USD/person for single entry, 50 USD/person for multiple entries, and 100 USD/ person for 6 months multiple entries. And no more hidden charged.
For more information please email to vietnam visa on arrival Or hotline: +84.90.824.6047 Kevin Nguyen (Mr)
That economies of cities depend on issues independent of density hardly argues for suburban sprawl as a superior form of urbanity. So long as density does not correlate with lowered productivity (except to the extent that a dense city may be “specialized”, and historically limited in its range of economic generators), higher densities provide the more sustainable and convenient habitat, and always have. It might be noted that suburbia means houses, with high-density nodes of activity scattered among the more generalized residential sprawl. Hence, commercial, retail, and industrial enclaves need not be counted in the spectrum of “suburban” features as economic generators superior to equivalent enclaves in a more dense urban environment. It’s about design, design, design in preference to zoning. If we are to consider the economic contributions of suburbia, we must also count all the negatives, over-extended infrastructure being perhaps the most salient. How one correlates L.A.s wealth with sprawl ignores the negative effects of hither and yon automobile transit which takes the suburbanite to all points of the compass in search of a living.
Some thoughts:
Looking at our cities as an “economic machine” we can it’s not about density, but access. High-density citites, with their congested stop-and-go transport, do not on average provide superior integration in terms of access – actually a bit less so, generally. The principle is obvious enough so we should forget density and just stick to the access question.
And access-integration is a value that changes all depending on what you’re producing exactly. Economies of scale have radically different optimum points depending on the function, especially with the Internet, and cities can too easily evolve to the functions that best suit them.
I also think big citites (not dense, as such) can be more efficient than small towns simply because you have less redundant labour. I think small operations have staff twiddling their thumbs more often, whereas big operations tend to have everyone working solidly because you can more easily cut staff in and out when required or not. And so you get better utilisation of capital, too, and especially so if you engineer local over-population which drives people to run your machine into the painful hours of the night (via the intense threat of unemployment). The latter is what New Zealand does; New Zealand is a country slowly rotting into third world status because the mindful people don’t fight for it, they just flee to Australia. And I’m not blaming them.
Thanks for covering our work Wendell.
Your characterization of our results is quite fair, but let me just add a few qualifications and comments that may be illuminating to the readers interested in these issues.
Our work indeed has been mostly about how population size of integrated urban areas (e.g. metropolitan areas) affects their characteristics, including measures of economic performance, innovation, crime, etc. Ultimately we want to understand what cities are, in their most essential aspects, as human social networks co-located in space and time and subject to certain efficiency constraints.
The issue of population density is fascinating because it is inevitably entangled with the issue of city population size and with urban productivity. Looking at cities of roughly the same type (with similar transportation technology and geographic constraints) at the same time we always see that larger cities are denser. On the other hand, as Wendell rightly observes, the tendency over (recent) time has been for cities to become less dense, and this trend is closely associated with (but is not the cause of) economic development. We see these dynamics all around us with the growth of suburban areas in US metropolitan areas, outside old European cities and in fast urbanizing nations, e.g. in Bangalore, India.
What seems to be the case worldwide and through time is that, for cities to exist, their spatial density profile must allow movement of people, energy, materials and information across the city sufficiently quickly and cheaply.
This can be achieved in many different ways. Think of Venice in the 13th century with its canals, or of a dense transit city like Tokyo, or indeed of the less dense contemporary car cities of North America. The difference between these radically distinct spatial urban forms is that less dense places are spatially larger and rely on faster transportation, which must be available to all, to fulfill their primary socioeconomic functions. As Andrew pointed out access is most important, and this can be achieved in different ways in different circumstances.
To these general considerations there are two other observations that should also be kept in mind: Given an opportunity people seem to enjoy more space at home and their choices of transportation depend on density and wealth.
As cities and nations grow economically, people seem to prefer to have more space at home, helping explain, perhaps, the rise of suburbia and the general trend towards decreasing urban densities over time worldwide. This is a controversial issue among urban planners, who are often interested in urban design that integrates many functions spatially and that therefore may encourage higher residential densities. Depending on this integration of services and on the cost of land and transportation, different detailed spatial forms tend to emerge. They all reflect tradeoffs between having space at home and access to the cities many functions.
On the other hand a lower density city that depends on the car, at its present level of technology, will consume more energy in transportation and consequently emit more CO2 than a denser city relying on an energy efficient transit system. Much of the energy savings that are possible in larger cities hinge on the use of transportation modes that consume less energy per capita per distance travelled, such as walking. While cities are not built primarily to save energy, this may become an important strategic issue both environmentally and in terms of economic security.
The analogy with biological organisms in these respects is not very helpful. Although the roads and cables of cities look a bit like our vascular system they behave very differently. Cities that are large – like the elephant in the picture– act more like mice and vice-versa. That is, large cities are fast, not slow and ponderous, and they are not dominated by network constraints that force them to slow down with size. The presence of more people that can in principle be reached accelerates socio-economic rates, including their economic output. This is much like what happens to your inbox or your blog page: the more people you reach the busier you’ll be dealing with their replies, comments, etc.
From all this, the conclusion is that cities can exist in many different spatial forms, and specifically at lower or higher densities, provided that people can interact easily. Given the same level of transportation technology larger cities will be denser. Given faster transportation cities will deflate and become spatially more spread-out. Nevertheless the level of social interactions on the average may be preserved across these changes, and sometimes even expanded by new technologies. Measuring the density of social interactions in cities (which are very different from residential density) remains an interesting and open research problem.
Several of these interesting issues are addressed in a few future publications from our group that are presently in review and will appear over the next few months.
Finally, we do not call ourselves “West’s team” or “West et al”. We are a group of independent researchers interested in understanding cities more quantitatively across their many social, economic, infrastructural and spatial dimensions.
The authorship order in each of our papers reflects credit on the work, both in terms of its analytic and conceptual development. We sometimes call ourselves the “Santa Fe Institute Urban Scaling Group” or Cities Group, but that also excludes some of our most important external collaborators, such as Prof. José Lobo (Arizona State University) – who among us first measured the scaling of the economic productivity of cities – or Prof. Deborah Strumsky (University of North Carolina, Charlotte) who, along with José, is responsible for many of our insights on technological innovation in cities. Lack of accuracy in referring to our work affects our ability to do our research, including career and funding opportunities and to collaborate with each other. We thank you in advance for the extra effort involved in citing the work accurately in the future.
Please visit our project’s webpage for more details.
The principal urban area is the urban area within a metropolitan area that has the largest population. For example, in the Riverside-San Bernardino metropolitan area, the Riverside-San Bernardino urban area is the principal urban area. Other urban areas, such as Murrietta, Hemet and Indio (Palm Springs) would be secondary urban areas.advertising online free
Given the same level of transportation technology larger cities will be denser. Given faster transportation cities will deflate and become spatially more spread-out.www warehouse direct
I feel fervently about this and I like learning about this subject. If possible, as you gain information, please update this blog with more information. I have found it really useful.ten boom
I also think big citites (not dense, as such) can be more efficient than small towns simply because you have less redundant labour. I think small operations have staff twiddling their thumbs more often, whereas big operations tend to have everyone working solidly because you can more easily cut staff in and out when required or not. And so you get better utilisation of capital, too, and especially so if you engineer local over-population which drives people to run your machine into the painful hours of the night (via the intense threat of unemployment). The latter is what New Zealand does; New Zealand is a country slowly rotting into third world status because the mindful people don’t fight for it, they just flee to Australia. And I’m not blaming them.
plumber apex | London Ontario optometrist
This info thread actually is. This could be one of that the most helpful blogrolls i have ever come across on this topic. Basically wonderful article the smiths t-shirt
The proof is the Quang cao google buses and trains that converge on six large downtown areas in the United States, where 40 percent to 75 percent of commuters use transit. This is not because the people who work south of 59th Street in Manhattan, in Chicago’s Loop, or the downtown areas of Philadelphia, Washington, Boston or San Francisco have more effectively managed their guilt Quang cao tren google than the Austin commuter. It is rather because transit meets their needs. Commuters are rational. They take the mode of transport that best suits their needs. Transit’s market shares around the country (many of them miniscule) speak volumes about how well transit meets the needs of potential Quang cao google adwords customers.
Well, this is really a nice post.I really like the way you start and conclude your thoughts. Thank you so much for this information. keep posting such good stuff.
cell phone spy software
nokia mobile prices
DUO Residences will be accessible via Bugis MRT station on the Circle Line. Commuting to Toa Payoh and Paya Lebar area as well as the city area is therefore very cheap calls to Pakistan
convenient. It is also near to many eateries along the Bugis Heritage Area as well as the Bras Basah Area.
Nokia mobiles prices in Pakistan
based upon voluminous econometric analysis that cities tend to become more efficient as they grow in population. mattress memory foam
The collapse of the housing market that triggered the Great Recession also has made Millennials sophisticated, knowledgeable consumers when making decisions about how and when to purchase a home. quang cao google Rather than thinking they should buy a home as soon as they get married or qualify for a mortgage, seventy percent of BHGRE’s respondents said the time to buy a house is when a person can “afford it and maintain their lifestyle
These findings suggest the current policies of the Federal Reserve and its Chairman, in thẻ bảo hành Ben Bernanke to keep interest rates low in order to stimulate this key part of the U.S. economy are right on target. If home builders and sellers can in thẻ nhựa tailor their offerings to these technologically sophisticated, family-oriented potential buyers, Millennials could well play an important role in reinvigorating the in thẻ vip nation’s housing market, further spurring the nation’s recovery from the Great Recession.
El Centro de tai lieu Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) espanyol,
bao cao thuc tap
dependent del Ministerio de Presidencia, realitzà un estudi específic per a Catalunya, fet gens comú al CIS,
luan van ngan hang
i que no s’ha tornat a repetir. El CIS ha estat denunciat repetidament i públicament de respondre als
de an mon hoc
interessos dels partits en el govern espanyol, bàsicament pel que fa a les enquestes d’intenció de vot.
DUO Residences will be accessible via Bugis MRT station on the Circle Line. Commuting to Toa Payoh and Paya Lebar area as well as the city area is therefore very
convenient. It is also near to many eateries along the Bugis Heritage Area as well as the Bras Basah Area.
duo-residence.org – DUO
They have provided strong quantitative evidence, based upon voluminous econometric analysis that cities tend to become more efficient as they grow in population. sample condolences
Future residents will be able to access the nearby Compass Point in Sengkang and Greenwich V in Fernvale Link which is a short drive away for some family fun and gatherings. A truly unique lifestyle awaits you.
Lush Acres Location
They have provided strong quantitative evidence, based upon voluminous econometric analysis that cities tend to become more efficient as they grow in population. sora classes
If your looking for Online Illinois license plate sticker renewals then you have need to come to the right place.We offer the fastest Illinois license plate sticker renewals in the state. We are tied directly into the sate’s renewal database which allows us to process your request almost instantly Welsh Rugby shirts
West, et al demonstrate a familiarity with urban geography that is all too rare, even among analysts who have studied cities for far longer. nj photo booth rental
There’s a lot of folks that I think would really enjoy your content. Please let me know. buy facebook likes
Future residents will be able to walk to Jurong East MRT Station which is located right beside it. Also, nature awaits your family and friends at the Jurong Lake Park and the Jurong Country Park. Also, the ultimate nature awaits you the Japanese Garden. small business web design
Seattle and Houston urban areas have population densities much lower than those of Paris, London, Hong Kong and even Los Angeles http://www.everycode.co.uk/store/jacamo/
máy in đa năng Overall, three-fourths of those surveyed named home ownership as an indicator of having succeeded financially,máy nghe nhạc sony more than seven times the number who named other major expenditures such as taking tủ lạnh toshiba extravagant vacations, buying an expensive car, or owning designer clothing. tủ lạnh panasonic
New Jersey (that’s nearly 30 miles south of Toms River). Suffice it to say most of this vast region is not dense at all. http://bestnjelectrician.com/
They have provided strong quantitative evidence, based upon voluminous econometric analysis that cities tend to become more effici visit homepage
This is the economic, or functional manifestation of the urban organism (the urban area, the area of continuous urbanization, is the physical plumber in edison nj
I really enjoyed the quality information you offer to your visitors for this blog. I will bookmark this page for my future reference. Thanks!
Manual Directory Submission
Buy backlinks
high pagerank backlinks
thanks for this great article
Houston Web Design | Austin Web Design | Web design price, web design cost
You may post on the technical support for the blog. You could log it’s insane. Your blog information should escalate your connections. rebelmouse.com/jennyboltonboostyourbustreview
If more people that write articles really concerned themselves with writing great content like you, more readers would be interested in their writings. Thank you for caring about your content.
https://www.rebelmouse.com/savethemarriage/