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  • Energy Makes a Super-city

    Superlatives can no longer describe Dubai – there are simply too many. It is now the fastest growing city in the world with $300 billion of construction underway. Once Dubai was a sleepy Arab port nestled between its larger and more famous oil rich neighbors: Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Now tiny Dubai is home to the “world’s tallest building,” and more construction cranes than China and its 1.4 billion people. What is more amazing is that Dubai has a population of just 200,000 native Emirates within a land area one-half the size of Orange County, California. If you count all the workers, the city has a population of 1.8 million.

    It all started with the Burj Al Arab, the “world’s first 7-star hotel,” rising more than 50 floors above the Persian Gulf. Its unique sail shape makes it instantly recognizable. The Burj Al Arab has grown into iconic stature, like the Eiffel Tower.

    The Burj Dubai, the “world’s tallest building,” has passed 165 floors and no one except the Absolute Ruler of Dubai knows the final height. The Burj Dubai is 100 percent sold out. It will contain the world’s first Armani Hotel, and the world’s most expensive offices. Its competitor, Al Burj, a few miles down the road at the Dubai Waterfront, is reported to be 200 floors but they will not commit until Burj Dubai stops its reach for the sky.

    Shoppers can choose from the Mall of the Emirates, the “world’s first shopping mall with an indoor ski slope,” or the Dubai Mall, the “world’s largest shopping mall” at 10 million square feet. It will not reign long as the world’s largest – the Mall of Arabia will be 12 million square feet. The Mall of Arabia will be located at Dubai Land in the “world’s largest amusement park” – three times the size of Disneyworld. These Dubai malls will later be dwarfed by the Bawadi District with 60,000 hotel rooms and 40 million square feet of retail in what will surely be the “world’s largest shopping mall.”

    The products displayed in these malls will pass through the Port of Jebel Ali, the “world’s largest man-made port,” and 8th busiest container part in the world. Jebel Ali is one of three man-made structures that can be seen from outer space – the Hoover Dam and the Great Wall of China being the others.

    Shoppers will arrive at DXB, Dubai’s brand new airport built to accommodate 120 million passengers annually. DXB will become the “world’s busiest airport,” easily surpassing Atlanta Hartsfield, which accommodated 72 million passengers last year.

    New residents of Dubai have already moved into Dubai Marina, the “world’s largest marina,” even larger than Marina Del Rey in Los Angeles. Dubai Marina will be home to 200 residential towers each more than 40 floors with six towers of more than 90 stories. The Princess Tower at 107 stories is the “world’s tallest residential tower,” but the Pentominium, at 120 floors, will become “the world’s tallest residential tower,” next year. Its neighbor, Infinity Tower, at just 80 floors, will be the “world’s tallest tower featuring a 90-degree twist.”

    Dubai has the “world’s largest man-made residential islands” with four of them. Palm Jumeirah, the first of the Palm-shaped trilogy is three-by-five miles. It sold 4,000 residences along 17 separate fronds in three days. Thirty-two hotels will line the trunk. At the crescent of Palm Jumeirah is Atlantis, a 2,000-room hotel. The 61-story Trump International Tower straddles the monorail that connects the Palm to the mainland. The penthouse recently sold for $30 million making it the “world’s most expensive penthouse.” The Queen Elizabeth 2 ocean liner was purchased by Sheikh Mohamed and will be docked at Palm Jumeirah.

    Palm Jebel Ali is 50 percent larger than Palm Jumeirah and part of the Dubai Waterfront project that will house 1.7 million people upon completion in 2020. Jebel Ali will be larger than Paris at seven-by-five miles. Besides 8,000 residences and fifty hotels, homes will be built on stilts with a boardwalk that circles the fronds and spells out a poem written by Sheikh Mohamed that reads:

    Take wisdom from the wise
    It takes a man of vision to write on water
    Not everyone who rides a horse is a jockey
    Great men rise to greater challenges

    Palm Deira, largest of the Palm trilogy, will become the “world’s largest man-made island,” larger than New York’s Manhattan, bigger than central Paris and almost as big as Greater London. Palm Deira will house one million residents. The 42 fronds will be twice as large as its sister Palm islands at nine-by-five miles. Palm Deira will be connected to the mainland by a Central Island that will become the commercial center of the community on the north end of Dubai.

    The fourth offshore mega-project is The World, a collection of 300 islands intended to look like the world from outer space. The project stretches five-by-three miles and is surrounded by an oval breakwater to protect the individual islands from Persian Gulf storms and waves. The ambitious 300-island project will cost $14 billion when completed. Individual islands will sell from $15 million to $250 million. To date, more than half have been sold but that may be deceiving as only half have been offered for sale.

    If these superlatives were not enough, Dubai is building a business center to rival New York City’s Manhattan, London’s City or Tokyo’s Ginza Strip . Business Bay will wrap around the Burj Dubai and contain 230 high-rise office towers, each 40 floors or more. All 230 office towers are sold. The Burl Al Alam will be the “world’s tallest commercial tower” at 108 floors of mixed-use apartments, office and hotel. When completed this business center will contain 64 million square feet of office space. Halliburton and Baker-Hughes have already announced that Dubai will become their world headquarters.

    Easily lost in the superlative is the size of Dubai. It is only one of seven emirates that make up the United Arab Emirates. It is not an oil rich nation like its neighbor. Abu Dhabi that owns 94 percent of the oil in the UAE. Dubai’s oil will run out in 2016. Sheikh Mohamed, Emir and Absolute Ruler of Dubai, steered Dubai onto a course of development predicting the rise in oil prices that would bring a gusher of oil money into the Persian Gulf. Each day the nations that surround the Persian Gulf pump 20 million barrels of oil to a thirsty world. At $140/barrel, they earn $2.8 billion per day, $19.6 billion per week, $84 billion per month and $1 trillion per year.

    Dubai correctly anticipated the staggering transfer of wealth to the Arab oil producing states and like a smart business man, geared up to provide plenty of product for his wealthy clientele. With $300 billion of projects under development and one-third of the world’s cranes, Dubai has become the “fastest growing city in the world,” – yet another superlative that hardly tells the story. It is a story of a city about to become a player on a global scale – and one that the established great urban regions will have to take seriously in the years to come.

    Robert J. Cristiano Ph.D. has more than 25 years experience in real estate development in Southern California. He obtained financing from the Middle East following the collapse of the savings & loan industry in the early 90s and has become an expert on that region. He is a resident of Newport Beach, CA.

  • Houston, New York Has a Problem

    The Southern city welcomes the middle class; heavily regulated and expensive Gotham drives it away.

    New Yorkers are rightly proud of their city’s renaissance over the last two decades, but when it comes to growth, Gotham pales beside Houston. Between 2000 and 2007, the New York region grew by just 2.7%, while greater Houston — the country’s sixth-largest metropolitan area — grew by 19.4%, expanding to 5.6 million people from 4.7 million.

    To East Coast urbanites, Houston’s appeal must be mysterious: The city isn’t all that economically productive — earnings per employee in Manhattan are almost double those in Houston — and its climate is unpleasant, with stultifying humidity and more days with temperatures exceeding 90 degrees than any other large American city. Since these two major factors in urban growth don’t explain Houston’s success, what does?

    Houston’s great advantage, it turns out, is its ability to provide affordable living for middle-income Americans, something that is increasingly hard to achieve in the Big Apple. That Houston is a middle-class city is mirrored in the nature of its economy. Both greater Houston and Manhattan have about 2 million employees.

    In Manhattan, almost 600,000 of them work in the idea-intensive sectors of finance, insurance, and professional services; only 2% are in manufacturing, and fewer than that in construction. Finance increasingly drives New York City’s economy as a whole. By contrast, Houston is a manufacturing powerhouse that makes machinery, food products, and electronics, with a retail sector twice the size of Manhattan’s and lots of middle-class jobs.

    Housing prices are the most important part of Houston’s recipe for middle-class affordability. In Gotham, the extraordinarily high housing costs aren’t a problem for the hyper-rich. With enough money, you can live in a spacious aerie overlooking Central Park, shop at Barney’s, eat at Le Bernardin, and send your children to Brearley or Dalton.

    The abundance of poorer immigrant New Yorkers, in turn, tells us that for people simply seeking a lifestyle that beats rural Brazil, the city’s many entry level service-sector jobs, wide array of social services, and extensive public transportation can offset high apartment prices.

    But what if, like most Americans, you are neither a partner at Goldman Sachs nor a penniless immigrant? Consider an average American family with skills that put them in the middle of the U.S. income distribution — nurses, sales representatives, retail managers — and aspirations to a middle-class lifestyle. What kind of life will such people lead in Houston and New York City, respectively?

    For starters, they’ll probably earn less in Houston, though not as much less as you might think. In the 2000 U.S. Census, the typical registered nurse made $50,000 in New York and $40,000 in Houston. A retail manager earned $28,000 in New York and $27,800 in Houston. Let’s be generous to New York and assume that our middle-income family would earn $70,000 there but just $60,000 in Houston.

    If our Houston family’s income is lower, however, its housing costs are much lower. In 2006, residents of Harris County, the 4-million-person area that includes Houston, told the census that the average owner-occupied housing unit was worth $126,000. Residents valued about 80% of the homes in the county at less than $200,000. The National Association of Realtors gives $150,000 as the median price of recent Houston home sales; though NAR figures don’t always accurately reflect average home prices, they do capture the prices of newer, often higher-quality, housing.

    In Houston, you’ll find a lot of nice places listing for $175,000, and they’ll probably sell for about 10% less, or $160,000. These are relatively new houses, often with four or more bedrooms. Some have more than 3,000 square feet of living space, swimming pools, and plenty of mahogany and leaded glass. Almost all seem to be in pleasant neighborhoods — a few are even in gated communities. The lots tend to be modest, about one-fifth of an acre, but that still leaves plenty of room for the kids to play. For a family that has about $35,000 available for a down payment, basic housing costs — that is, mortgage payments — would be about $9,200 a year.

    The average home price in New York City is dramatically higher. In 2006, the census put it at $496,000, and $787,900 in Manhattan — way out of reach for a family earning $70,000 a year. There are cheaper options: a perfectly pleasant Staten Island home with three bedrooms and two baths for $340,000, for instance. These houses don’t have the amenities you would find in new Houston houses, but they offer 2,000 square feet of living space. Alternatively, the family might purchase a condominium, with two or three bedrooms, in Queens — say, in Howard Beach or Far Rockaway. Even for the Staten Island option, a family making the same $35,000 down payment would face basic housing costs of about $24,000 a year.

    You thus get much more house in Houston and pay a lot less for it. Small wonder Houston looks so good to middle-class Americans.

    It looks even better once you take taxes into account. Federal taxes are roughly equal for the two families: about $7,000 per year. But under the Texas constitution, to enact a state income tax requires approval by statewide referendum — and two-thirds of the revenues generated by such a tax, if passed, must go toward reducing other taxes. As a result, Texas doesn’t have any state income taxes. Nor, for that matter, does it have any city income taxes.

    Houston residents do have to pay property taxes, which come to about $4,800 for a $160,000 home. In New York City, not only would a middle-class family have to pay local property taxes, probably about $3,400; they would also have to pay state and city income taxes — adding another $4,000 or so to their tax burden, depending on deductions and other factors. State and local levies thus add about $2,600 to the cost of living in New York.

    Ah, but doesn’t it cost a lot more to get around sprawling Houston? The Houstonians must have two cars: the poor public-transit system leaves them no other choice. American families earning $60,000 typically spend about $8,500 a year on transportation — and sure enough, in Houston, that’s sufficient (barely) to cover gas, insurance, and payments on two relatively inexpensive cars.

    The New Yorkers could save a lot by giving up on cars altogether and relying solely on Gotham’s extensive network of buses and subways, but on Staten Island or in outer Queens, that would mean a significant lifestyle cost. Family members would have to walk to the grocery store and rely on taxis for other trips. A more reasonable approach would be to have one car for local trips and use public transit to get to work. With a public-transit bill of $80 per month, a fair guess is that the New York family will end up spending about $3,000 less per year than the Houstonians on getting around.

    Just as with housing, however, there’s a significant difference in the quality of transportation in Houston and New York. In Houston, the middle-class breadwinner likely will drive an air-conditioned car from an air-conditioned home to an air-conditioned workplace, and take 27.4 minutes to do it, on average. Commuting via New York public transit is more complicated. If you live in Queens, the average commute to midtown Manhattan (if that’s where you work) is 42 minutes, and longer if you’re coming from Far Rockaway.

    From Staten Island, the average commute is 44 minutes — and often something of a triathlon, with bus, ferry, and subway stages. Our middle-class New York commuter thus spends at least 120 more hours in transit per year than does his Houston counterpart. And except perhaps for the ones spent on the ferry, none of those hours is as agreeable as sitting in an air-conditioned car listening to the radio.

    Will rising oil prices eat away Houston’s cost advantages? While there’s no question that more expensive crude favors dense New York, the impact of paying more at the pump is likely to be modest. If the Houston residents buy 500 more gallons of gas per year than the New Yorkers, and if the price of gas jumps by $3 a gallon, then the price of Houston living will increase by $1,500. This is a real cost, but it doesn’t come close to evening the playing field.

    Further, the Houston family could always drive a 50-miles-to-the-gallon hybrid, which would let them buy only 400 gallons of gas to drive 20,000 miles. Big-city boosters may like to think that rising gas prices will end suburban sprawl, but a far more likely response to expensive oil is a large switch to more fuel-efficient cars.

    After housing, taxes, and transportation, the New Yorkers have $26,000 left. The Houston family has $30,500, and those dollars go a lot further than they would in New York. The American Chamber of Commerce produces local price indexes for various areas, including Houston and Queens (though not Staten Island). The overall price index for Queens is 150, which means that it costs 50% more to live there than it does in the average American locale. The price index for Houston is 88.

    If we exclude the areas that our two families have already paid for (housing and transportation) and average the remaining categories in the index (food, utilities, health, and miscellaneous), Queens is 24% more expensive than the average American area and Houston is 6% less expensive. Thus — again, after housing, taxes, and transportation — the Queens residents’ real remainder is a little less than $21,000; the Houston family’s is $32,200. The Houston family is effectively 53% richer and solidly in the middle class, with plenty of money for going out to dinner at Applebee’s or taking vacations to San Antonio. The family on Staten Island or in Queens is straining constantly to make ends meet.

    If the key factor making Houston a middle-class magnet is its plentiful and inexpensive housing, that raises the question: why is it so cheap? The low cost of homes reflects the low cost of supplying homes in Texas. Building an “economy” 2,000-square-foot house in Houston costs about $120,000, and a slightly larger “standard” one about $150,000.

    Why is it so much more expensive in New York? For one, supplying housing in New York City costs much, much more — for a 1,500-square-foot apartment, the construction cost alone is more than $500,000. Also, part of the reason is geographic: an old port on a narrow island can’t grow outward, as Houston has, and the costs of building up — New York’s fate, especially in Manhattan — will always be higher than those of building out. And the unavoidable fact is that New York makes it harder to build housing than Chicago does — and a lot harder than Houston does.

    The permitting process in Manhattan is an arduous, unpredictable, multiyear odyssey involving a dizzying array of regulations, environmental, and other hosts of agencies. A further obstacle: rent control. When other municipalities dropped rent control after World War II, New York clung to it, despite the fact that artificially reduced rents discourage people from building new housing.

    Houston, by contrast, has always been gung ho about development. Houston’s builders have managed — better than in any other American city — to make the case to the public that restrictions on development will make the city less affordable to the less successful.

    Of course, Houston’s development isn’t costless. Like most growing places, it must struggle with water issues, sanitation, and congestion. For environmentalists who worry about carbon dioxide emissions and global warming, Houston’s rapid growth is particularly worrisome, since Houstonians are among the biggest carbon emitters in the country — all those humid 90-degree days mean a lot of electricity to cool off, and all that driving gobbles plenty of gas.

    But Houston’s success shows that a relatively deregulated free-market city, with a powerful urban growth machine, can do a much better job of taking care of middle-income Americans than the more “progressive” big governments of the Northeast and the West Coast.

    The right response to Houston’s growth is not to stymie it through regulation that would make the city less affordable. It’s for other areas, New York included, to cut construction costs and start beating the Sunbelt at its own game.

    This article appeared first at the New York Sun.

    Mr. Glaeser, a professor of economics at Harvard University, is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. This article is adapted from the forthcoming issue of City Journal.

  • How We Pick the Best Cities

    By Michael Shires

    This year’s rankings continue the methodology used last year, which emphasizes the robustness of a region’s growth and allows the rankings to include all of the metropolitan statistical areas for which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports monthly employment data. They are derived from three-month rolling averages of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics “state and area” unadjusted employment data reported from November 1996 to January 2008.

    The data reflect the North American Industry Classification System categories, including total nonfarm employment, manufacturing, financial services, business and professional services, educational and health services, information, retail and wholesale trade, transportation and utilities, leisure and hospitality, and government.
    “Large” areas include those with a current nonfarm employment base of at least 450,000 jobs. “Midsize” areas range from 150,000 to 450,000 jobs. “Small” areas have as many as 150,000 jobs. Two communities in last year’s top midsize MSA group grew enough that they are now considered large MSAs: Birmingham, Ala., and Oklahoma City. In the smaller MSAs, Asheville, N.C., moved from the small to midsize category.

    This year’s rankings use four measures of growth to rank all areas for which full data sets were available from the past 10 years — 335 regions in total. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, however, no longer reports employment detail for MSAs with employment levels less than 30,000 in its monthly models (a total of 59 MSAs were dropped). As a result, this year’s rankings can be directly compared to the 2007 rankings for MSAs for the large and midsize categories, but there are some adjustments needed for year-to-year comparisons in small MSA category. In instances where the analysis refers to changes in ranking order, these adjustments have been taken into account.

    The index is calculated from a normalized, weighted summary of: 1) recent growth trend: the current and prior year’s employment growth rates, with the current year emphasized (two points); 2) mid-term growth: the average annual 2002-2007 growth rate (two points); 3) long-term trend: the sum of the 2002-2007 and 1996-2001 employment growth rates multiplied by the ratio of the 1996-2001 growth rate over the 2002-2007 growth rate (two points); and 4) current year growth (one point).