New Geography

Category: Small Cities

  • The New E.D. — Environmental Density

    Developers often have an E.D. problem and are not even aware of it. No, not the type of E.D. temporarily cured with Viagra. Environmental Density — E.D. — is the measurement of the impact of man made construction on a site. In simple terms, E.D. is the average per acre volume of impervious surface due to land development construction. It has two very important impacts, one environmental, and one financial. One acre of land is 43,560 square feet. The lower the E.D. — square foot of impervious surface area divided by 43,560 — the lower the surface area of manmade structures that divert rain run-off, and the less environmental damage.

    Some municipalities have impervious surface limitations in their regulations. These limitations can be counter to human benefits. For example, a developer faced with the limits of allowed impervious surface area would rather not propose a walking system; the regulations could mean a choice between walkways and homes. E.D., on the other hand, is not an imposed limit, but a way to measure the efficiency of the neighborhood design.

    Don’t bother searching the internet for opposing articles on E.D., because we invented the term’s use in relationship to modern land development right here at www.newgeography.com.

    From a financial perspective, the lower the volume of manmade stuff, the lower the development cost. The savings translate into more money that can be spent on higher quality development and/or a drop in the cost of housing and commercial construction. In other words higher quality development at more affordable prices. This affects everyone, worldwide.

    It doesn’t matter if the site is a New Urban “Smart Growth” design, a subdivision in “Garage Grove Acres”, or a Prefurbia neighborhood. E.D. is the number that can easily indicate the direct environmental impact of land development. The E.D. is essentially the Efficiency of Development.

    Assuming that New Geography readers are not all engineers, I’ll use some simple examples of E.D.:

    If the design is wasteful (eliminating waste in design is NOT a subject taught in land planning schools – but it should be), then costs and environmental impacts increase. Nobody but the paving and earthwork contractors being paid to build excessive infrastructure gain from wasteful development. The developer’s profit decreases and the city’s maintenance cost escalates from having to maintain excessive infrastructure… forever. We all pay for this!

    In an urban high density development which has a very large ratio of hard surface area to organic ground (sometimes the E.D. reaches 100%), there are often opportunities to lower the inorganic percentage. Green roofs (landscaped rooftops) have an impact on E.D. because, in theory, the rainfall is held in soils that water landscaping. However, this assumes existing building structures can handle the additional weight and can be modified to properly maintain an organic area. Organic space on ground level benefits 100% of the population, as opposed to a green roof many stories above the pedestrian ways. So for the purposes of this article we will define all rooftops (urban or suburban) as negative impact square footage. Walks, streets, and driveways are all hard surface areas that divert rain. Organic areas absorb rain. Run-off from hard surface area negatively affects the environment.

    Velocity is another problem. Run-off travels on hard surfaces at a much higher rate than it does on landscaped ground. The worst rates are found where there are long runs of straight street with rain traveling along gutters; curved design slows it a bit . Velocity builds momentum as more rain collects in gutters, inlets and sewer pipes. Eventually this wall of water reaches the end of developed land and spills into a natural system, carrying pollutants into major bodies of water. That oil slick on your driveway can be carried to environmentally sensitive areas hundreds or thousands of miles away in a heavy downpour.

    Lower the E.D. ratio and some magnificent things happen.

    A gain in organic space can reduce the disruption of the earth — the moving of dirt — which can significantly lower development costs, as well as provide surface run-off conduits which cost much less than sewer pipe. The designer must learn how to identify waste, and then take the steps to reduce it. This adds an additional element in the initial planning stages, but an extra day or two in design could reduce development costs by hundreds of thousands of dollars.
    Rooftop surface can be reduced by building up, not out. The trend to build single level housing for the empty-nester market results in sprawling homes with terrible E.D. ratios, and it adds to the costs of the structures; roofs and foundations certainly are not cheap. Sprawling homes require longer streets to be reached, another increase in costs and environmental damage. A residential elevator is about $14,000 (installed) for a two story home, and $22,000 for three floors . By using them, builders can construct compact structures and plummet the E.D. ratio.

    Paved areas can be reduced by changing regulations to allow vast, commercial parking areas, shared. by users that have different peak times. Some cities use progressive thinking, and allow this simple technique to lower the E.D. ratio of a region. Paved areas built to municipal standards are incredibly expensive, making the E.D. ratio even more critical.

    When we developed Performance Planning Systems we wanted to create the tools to easily determine E.D. while still in the initial design phases, as well as to provide the education to recognize waste and teach how it can be reduced. E.D. relies on this new technology; tracing accurate space for the calculations would have been too tedious and time consuming in the past. Environmental Density, unlike impervious surface limits, does not impede efforts to create great neighborhoods. It’s not a restriction on what can be built, but a measure of a design’s efficiency that can benefit builders, developers, and environmentalists.

    Rick Harrison is President of Rick Harrison Site Design Studio and Neighborhood Innovations, LLC. He is author of Prefurbia: Reinventing The Suburbs From Disdainable To Sustainable and creator of Performance Planning System. His websites are rhsdplanning.com and performanceplanningsystem.com.

  • Growing America: Demographics and Destiny

    Over the next four decades, American governments will oversee a much larger and far more diverse population. As we gain upward of 100 million people, America will inevitably become a more complex, crowded and competitive place, but it will continue to remain highly dependent on its people’s innovative and entrepreneurial spirit.

    In 2050, the U.S. will look very different from the country in 2000, at the dawn of the new millennium. By mid-century, the U.S. will no longer be a “white country,” but rather a staggering amalgam of racial, ethnic and religious groups, all participants in the construction of a new civilization whose roots lie not in any one country or continent, but across the entirety of human cultures and racial types. No other advanced, populous country will enjoy such ethnic diversity.

    The implications of this change will be profound for governments-perhaps in ways not now commonly anticipated. Many “progressives” believe a more diverse, populous nation will need more guidance from Washington, D.C., but a more complex and varied country will increasingly not fit well into a one-size-fits-all approach.

    Although the economic crisis of 2008 led to a rapid rise of federal power, there has been a stunning and largely unexpected push-back reflected, in part, by the tea party movement. Some states have passed laws that seek to restrict federal prerogatives on a host of issues. More importantly, public opinion, measured in numerous surveys, seems to be drifting away from major expansions of government power.

    Of course, most Americans would accede to the federal government an important role in developing public works, national defense and regulations for health and safety. But generally speaking, they also tend to believe that local communities, neighborhoods and parents should possess the power to craft appropriate solutions on many other problems.

    This also reflects our historical experience. From its origins, American democracy has been largely self-created and fostered a dispersion of power; in many European countries, and more recently in parts of Asia, democracy was forged by central authorities.

    Other periods of massive government intervention, most notably after the New Deal and the Great Society, also elicited reactions against centralization. But the current push-back’s speed and ferocity has been remarkable. Yet the often polarizing debate about the scope of federal power largely has ignored the longer-term trends that will promote the efficacy of an increasingly decentralized approach to governance.

    Perhaps the most important factor here is the trajectory of greater growth and increasing diversity of who we are and how we live. Not only are Americans becoming more racially diverse, but they inhabit a host of different environments, ranging from dense cities to urbanized suburbs, to smaller cities and towns, that have different needs and aspirations.

    Americans also are more settled than any time in our history-partially a function of an aging population-and thus more concerned with local developments. As recently as the 1970s, one in five Americans moved annually; in 2004 that number was 14 percent, the lowest rate since 1950. In 2008, barely one in 10 moved, a fraction of the rate in the 1960s. Workers are increasingly unwilling to move even for a promotion due to family and other concerns. The recession accelerated this process, but the pattern appears likely to persist even in good times.

    Americans also prefer to live in decentralized environments. There are more than 65,000 general-purpose governments; the average local jurisdiction population in the United States is 6,200-small enough that nonprofessional politicians can have a serious impact on local issues. This contrasts with the vast preference among academic planners, policy gurus and the national media for larger government units as the best way to regulate and plan for the future.

    Short of a draconian expansion of federal power, this dispersion is likely to continue. Roughly 80 to 90 percent of all metropolitan growth in the last decade took place on the periphery; at the same time, the patterns of domestic migration have seen a shift away from the biggest cities and toward smaller ones. As Joel Garreau noted in his classic Edge City, “planners drool” over high-density development, but most residents in suburbia “hate a lot of this stuff.” They might enjoy a town center, a paseo or a walking district, but they usually resent the proliferation of high-rises or condo complexes. If they wanted to live in buildings like them, they would have stayed in the city.

    Attempts to force major densification in these areas will be fiercely resisted, even in the most liberal communities. Some of the strongest anti-growth hotbeds in the nation are areas like Fairfax County, Va., with high concentrations of progressives-well educated people who might seem amenable to environmentally correct “smart growth”-advocating denser development along transit corridors. As one planning director in a well-to-do suburban Maryland county put it, “Smart growth is something people want. They just don’t want it in their own neighborhood.”

    The great long-term spur to successful dispersion will come from technology, as James Martin first saw in his pioneering 1978 book, The Wired Society. A former software designer for IBM, Martin foresaw the emergence of mass telecommunications that would allow a massive reduction in commuting, greater deconcentration of workplaces and a “localization of physical activities … centered in local communities.”

    Technology would allow skilled people to congregate in communities of their choice or at home. Today not only knowledge workers but also those in construction trades, agriculture and other professions are home-based, conducting their operations out of trucks, vans or home offices.

    Many leading-edge companies now recognize this trend. As much as 40 percent of IBM’s work force operates full time at home or remotely at clients’ businesses. Siemens, Hewlett-Packard, Cisco, Merrill Lynch and American Express have expanded their use of telecommuting, with noted increases in productivity.

    At the same time, employment is shifting away from mega-corporations to smaller units and individuals; between 1980 and 2000, self-employed individuals expanded tenfold to include 16 percent of the work force. The smallest businesses, the microenterprises, have enjoyed the fastest rate of growth, far more than any other business category. By 2006 there were some 20 million such businesses, one for every six private-sector workers.

    Hard economic times could slow this trend, but recessions have historically served as incubators of innovation and entrepreneurship. Many individuals starting new firms will have recently left or been laid off by bigger companies, particularly during a severe economic downturn. Whether they form a new bank, energy company or design firm, they will do it more efficiently-with less overhead, more efficient Internet use and less emphasis on pretentious office settings. In addition, they will do it primarily in places that can scale themselves to economic realities.

    Simultaneously the Internet’s rise allows every business-indeed every family-unprecedented access to information, something that militates against centralized power. Given Internet access, many lay people aren’t easily intimidated into accepting the ability of “experts” to dictate solutions based on exclusive knowledge since the hoi polloi now possess the ability to gather and analyze information. Even the powerful media companies are rapidly losing their ability to define agendas; there are too many sources of information to mobilize mass opinion. The widespread breakdown of support for climate change is a recent example of this phenomenon.

    Once the current drive for centralization falters, support for decentralization will grow, including progressive communities that now favor a heavy-handed expansion of federal power. Attempts to impose solutions from a central point will be increasingly regarded as obtrusive and oppressive to them, just as they would to many more conservative places like South Dakota. In the coming era, in many cases, only locally based solutions-agreed to at the community, municipal or state level-can possibly gather strong support.

    This drive toward dispersing power will prove critical if we hope to meet the needs of an unprecedentedly diverse and complex nation of 400 million. New forms of association-from local electronic newsletters to a proliferation of local farmers markets, festivals and a host of ad hoc social service groups-are already growing. Indeed, after a generation-long decline, volunteerism has spiked among Millennials and seems likely to surge among downshifting baby boomers. In 2008, some 61 million Americans volunteered, representing more than one-quarter of the population older than 16.

    It’s these more intimate units-the family, the neighborhood association, the church or local farmers market-that constitute what Thomas Jefferson called our “little republics,” which are most critical to helping mid-21st-century America. Here, our nation of 400 million souls will find its fundamental sustenance and its best hope for the brightest future.

    This article originally appeared in GOVERNING Magazine.

    Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography.com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010.

    Photo by slynkycat

    May 3, 2010

  • The Worst Cities For Jobs

    In this least good year in decades, someone has to sit at the bottom. For the most part, the denizens are made up of “usual suspects” from the long-devastated rust belt region around the Great Lakes. But as in last year’s survey, there’s also a fair-sized contingent of former hot spots that now seem to resemble something closer to black holes.

    Two sectors have particularly suffered worst from the recession, according to a recent study by the New America Foundation: construction, where employment has dropped by nearly 25%, and manufacturing, which has suffered a 15% decline. The decline in construction jobs has hit the Sunbelt states hardest; the manufacturing rollback has pummeled industrial areas such as the Great Lakes as well as large swaths of the more recently industrialized parts of the Southeast.

    Read how we pick the best cities.

    Then there is California, a state that should be doing much better given its natural advantages and vast human capital but whose regions–with the exception of government-rich Hanford–share various degrees of distress. The bursting of the real estate bubble has hit the Golden State hard, but seeing so many poor performances in my adopted home state is distressing and points to much deeper problems. Rankings author Michael Shires, pointing to the looming prospect of high taxes and expanding regulation, notes that “While California’s economy has come roaring back many times before, a resurgence this time will be slowed by the state’s increasing willingness to aggressively tax and regulate those who will make it happen.”

    Rust Belt Ruins

    The traditional manufacturing heartland long has suffered, and in this recession industrial jobs have declined rapidly and only now seem to be slowly expanding. Ever since we started these surveys back in the early 2000s, cities and towns along the rust belt have inhabited the bottom rungs.

    Starting up from the last place finisher, No. 397 Warren-Troy, Mich., these old industrial cities dominate the nether regions; of the bottom ten finishers overall, six come from the Wolverine State, including long-suffering Detroit, which ranks 394th overall and 65th on the list of large metros (next to its neighbor, Flint, in last place). Other rust belt bottom-dwellers include No. 395 Elkhart and No. 392 Kokomo in nearby Indiana.

    Perhaps more disturbingly, many of those at the bottom come from what used to be called “the new South,” cities that industrialized late and often benefited from the flow of jobs from the old rust belt. Places such as No. 396 Morristown, Tenn., No. 390 Dalton, Ga., and No. 389 Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, N.C., have suffered from a recession that has either forced companies to shut down or move overseas.

    Sun Belt Busts

    Ever since the collapse of the housing bubble in 2007, we have seen a remarkable turnaround in many Sunbelt regions. Traditionally, these led the list as emerging boomtowns. Now many appear more like bust-towns.

    Take a look at the rapid decline of such hot spots as Las Vegas, which now ranks 57th out of the 66 largest metros in the country; Phoenix, now lurking at No. 51; and No. 61 West Palm Beach, No. 56 Fort Lauderdale, No. 54 Tampa and No. 45 Miami, all in Florida. Many of these cities stood proudly near the top of the list as recently as three years ago. Perhaps nothing illustrates the reversal of fortunes than the fall of Reno, once our fastest-growing mid-size region, now No. 92 in the same category.

    California: The Great Disaster

    No state has suffered a greater reversal of fortunes than California. Five or six years ago California regions generally inhabited the top half or third of our lists. Today they generally have fallen even faster than the other Sunbelt states, even though the state’s economy boasts many assets beyond merely real estate speculation.

    California now accounts for a remarkable 7 of the bottom 20 regions on our big metro list. The diversity of the disaster spans both the urban centers and the exurbs–witness exurban Riverside-San Bernardino at No. 63 and the city of Oakland at No. 62. Historic high-flyers No. 59 Los Angeles and neighboring Santa Ana-Anaheim Irvine, which checks in at an abysmal No. 60, didn’t fare much better.

    Perhaps more shocking is the poor performance handed in by the state capital, Sacramento, a former high-flyer now mired at No. 54, and San Diego, a high-tech haven with a near-perfect climate, that resides at No. 48. Even No. 47 San Jose/Silicon Valley has done poorly, despite all the consistent hype about the world class tech center. The likes of Steve Jobs of Apple and Eric Schmidt at Google may be minting money, but the region, paced by declines in construction, manufacturing and business services, now has 130,000 fewer jobs than a decade ago. San Francisco does not do much better, clocking in No. 42, just ahead of its equally celebrated alter-ego Portland, Ore.

    Prognosis From the Emergency Room

    If this list tells us the current occupants of intensive care, what then are the prognoses for recovery? It seems the story differs for each of our three basic categories. For the rust belt cities, relief will only come when the country decides to reprioritize industry, while allowing for the restructuring of firms and contracts. On the bright side is the recovery of Ford and the potential for a second life for a greatly reduced General Motors and even Chrysler. A modest surge in production of these firms and related industries, such as steel and electronics, could help some selected regions rise up from the bottom.

    The recovery of the Sunbelt economies seems likely to take hold first. Despite the giddy predictions of East Coast pundits that places like Las Vegas, Phoenix, Orlando and Tampa are doomed to what Leon Trotsky allegedly described as the “dustbin of history,” this is not the first time these areas have suffered a setback. They have still not shown much life yet, but I would not count them out for the long term. There is a lot to be said for a sunny climate, greatly enhanced affordability and what many see as a high quality of life.

    Ultimately, notes Rob Lang, director of Brookings Mountain West and professor of sociology at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas, the assets of these regions have either not changed–pro-business administrations and warm weather–or, in the case of housing affordability, have become more attractive. “Phoenix and Las Vegas will be fine,” Lang predicts, noting that Las Vegas is working to reinvent itself beyond gaming to becoming a “convening capital” for the world economy. Similar dynamics could also boost cities in Florida, particularly if they begin focusing beyond tourism and housing.

    And then there is California, which by all rights should be leading, not lagging, the current recovery. Statewide unemployment, already 12.6%, has been rising while most states have experienced a slight drop. Silicon Valley companies, Hollywood and the basic agricultural base of the state remain world-beaters. But the problem lies largely in an extremely complex regulatory regime that leads companies to shift much of their new production and staffing to other states as well as foreign countries. The constant prospect of a state bankruptcy, in large part due to soaring public employee pension obligations, does not do much to inspire confidence among either local entrepreneurs or investors.

    Hopefully this will be the year when Californians decide that it needs an economy that provides opportunities to people other than software billionaires, movie moguls and their servants. It will have to include much more than the endlessly hyped, highly subsidized “green jobs.” More than anything, it will take rolling back some of the draconian regulations–particularly around climate-change legislation–that force companies, and jobs, to go to places that, while not as intrinsically attractive, are friendlier to job-creating businesses.

    This article originally appeared at Forbes.com.

    Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography.com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010.

    Photo: JSFauxtaugraphy

    April 27, 2010

  • I Heart Des Moines

    Forbes Magazine just released its “Best Places for Business and Careers” list and it’s no surprise to me that Des Moines, Iowa just landed in the top spot. Nearly 5 years ago, I’d have said the same thing you may have just muttered. “Des Moines…that’s fly over country…who’d want to live and work THERE?” I fully appreciate your logic with our cold winters, humid summers, and ag-centric heritage. But weather and corn fields aside, the Des Moines metro, a circle consisting of about half a million people, has captured my heart and I’ve become its most passionate evangelist.

    After a lifetime of Southern California bustle, my wife wasn’t exactly thrilled about my desire to abandon our friends and family infrastructure. But ultimately she wanted me to have more than a view from the windshield of a Honda Civic and to be a stay-at-home mom for our kids. We began to see clearly that reaching goals for entrepreneurship, more family time, and more civic engagement were unattainable in our current location. We were ready to reclaim our time, live with less hassle, and stretch a bit.

    So in 2005, we executed geographic arbitrage landing in Clive, Iowa, a beautiful community on the West side of the Des Moines metro. Soon the memory of my 2.5 hour daily plunge into freeway hell was fading. Views of the beaches and mountains from the window of the 6:20AM flight to DFW became real life experiences on urban bike trails and fishing at the lake blocks from my house. A 20-minute drive from end-to-end, the Des Moines metro area defines easy living and 70 miles equals 60 minutes. (I’m still chronically early to my appointments.)

    During those first months here a local business blogger who’d been reading my copious posts on “Why Des Moines?” reached out to me. After coffee and a few introductions, my personal and business network began to flourish. It was hard to comprehend how quickly anyone who’s willing could reach top level contacts in business, associations, and in government. Before long I was shopping a business plan to investors and prominent business owners in town. I was even introduced to State House representatives who cared about my thoughts on what’s happening in their districts. (I went 33 years never meeting a Congressman in CA.) I realized that within a few phone calls I could reach top decision makers, corporate leaders, and legislators and they were willing to listen to me. My business createWOWmedia is growing rapidly now and I’m reaping the benefits of 2.5 years of head down execution and statewide relationship building. I had the time, the energy, and the start up capital through my CA home sale to stop dreaming and start doing. The Des Moines metro gave me that opportunity and I’m thankful for it.

    I’ve figured out that if you’re willing to endure a couple months spent largely indoors or bundled up that the trade-offs are magical and worth their weight in gold. I wouldn’t trade what I’ve found here for anything. The Des Moines metro and the state of Iowa as a whole offer so much…and ask so little in return. Des Moines is easy living defined.

    Am I worried about a massive influx of new Iowans pouring in from Western states based on this piece and Forbes’s recommendations? No chance. But if you do decide to take the plunge and reclaim your life from the concrete jungle, shoot me an email and I’d be happy to guide you. That’s what good neighbors and Iowans do.

    Doug Mitchell is a Southern California refugee who moved his family to Des Moines, Iowa to build a better life. Doug can be reached at doug@createWOWmedia.com or on twitter @doug_mitchell

  • The Best Cities For Jobs

    This year’s “best places for jobs” list is easily the most depressing since we began compiling our annual rankings almost a decade ago. In the past–even in bad years–there were always stalwart areas creating lots of new jobs. In 2007’s survey 283 out of 393 metros areas showed job growth, and those at the top were often growing employment by at least 5% to 6%. Last year the number dropped to 63. This year’s survey, measuring growth from January 2009 to January 2010, found only 13 metros with any growth.

    Mike Shires at the Pepperdine School of Public Policy, who develops the survey, calls it “an awful year.” Making it even worse, the source of new jobs in almost all areas were either government employment or highly tax payer-funded sectors like education and health. This year’s best-performing regions were those that suffered the smallest losses in the private economy while bulking up on government steroids.

    So far the recovery has favored the government-dominated apparat and those places where public workers congregate.After all, besides Wall Street, public-financed workers have been the big beneficiaries of the stimulus, with state and local governments receiving more than one-third of all funds. Public employment grew by nearly 2% over the past three years, while private employment has dropped by 7%.

    Read how we pick the best cities.

    Private sector workers have also seen their wages decline, while those working for the various levels of government have held their own. Federal workers now enjoy an average salary roughly 10% higher than their private sector counterparts, while their health, pension and other benefits are as much as four times higher.

    Not surprisingly government workers, according to a recent survey, are more likely to see the economy improving than those engaged in the private sector. It’s not so pretty a picture on Main Street; personal bankruptcy filings rose 23% in the year ending in March.

    Small Is Still Beautiful

    Despite these differences, some patterns from previous years still persist. The most prominent is the almost total domination of the top overall rankings by smaller communities. With the exception of Austin, Texas, all the top 10 growers–and all the net gainers–were small communities. Americans have been moving to smaller towns and cities for much of the past decade, as well as jobs, and this recession may end up accelerating the trend.

    At the top of the list stands No. 1 Jacksonville, N.C., whose economy grew 1.4%, paced by 3.3% growth in government jobs. Fast growth, however, is not a stranger to this Southern community, whose employment base has grown 22.8% since 1998. The area includes the massive Marine Base at Camp Lejeune, a beehive of activity since the U.S. started waging two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Fort Hood-Temple-Fort Hood in Texas came in fourth place overall with Fayetteville, N.C., home to the Army’s Fort Bragg, placing sixth and Lawton, Okla., home of Fort Sill, close behind at No. 7. Similar explanations can apply to war economy hot spots Fort Stewart (No. 20 overall) and Warner Robbins (No. 26), both in Georgia.

    But perhaps nothing captures the current zeitgeist more than the presence, at No. 23, of Hanford-Corcoran, Calif. A large Air Force base and a state prison have bolstered Hanford-Corcoran’s economy, which shows that even in the Golden State–an economic basket case whose unemployment keeps rising–a large concentration of government jobs still guarantees some degree of growth.

    Not all our top-ranked small stars got their stimulus from Uncle Sam. Energy-related growth explains strong performances from Bismarck and ag-rich Fargo, N.D., at Nos. 2 and 8, respectively. You can also credit some energy-related growth to the high standing of Morgantown, W.Va., (No. 17) and Anchorage, Alaska, (No. 18), which have benefited from consistently high prices of oil and other sources of energy.

    Texas at the Top of Big Cities

    Our list of best places among big cities is dominated this year, as last, by Texas, with the Lone Star State producing fully half of our top 10. This year, like last, the No. 1 big city (those with a more than 450,000 non-farm jobs) was Austin, Texas, which enjoys the benefits of being both the state capital and the home to the University of Texas, as well as a large, and growing, tech sector.

    But the Texas story also includes places that do not enjoy Austin’s often overwrought “hip and cool” image. Broad-based economies, partly in energy, have paced the growth of No. 2 San Antonio, No. 3 Houston, No. 5 Dallas and No. 7 Fort Worth. Other consistent big-city Southern performers include No. 8 big metro Raleigh-Cary, N.C., as well as two ascendant Great Plains metropolises, No. 9 Omaha and No. 11 Oklahoma City. None of these places were too hard-hit by the mortgage meltdown, and they all have retained reputations as business-friendly areas.

    The other big winner among the large areas is an obvious one: No. 6 ranked greater Washington, D.C. While most American communities suffer, our putative Moscow on the Potomac has emerged as the big winner under Barack Obama and the congressional centralizers. Remarkably, federal employment in the area has grown at a smart pace throughout the recession. One partial result: Washington office space is now–for the first time ever–more expensive than that in Manhattan. Northern Virginia, home to many beltway bandit companies, ranks No. 4 on our list.

    The Eds and Meds Economy

    With the productive economy outside energy only now getting its footing, the biggest relative winners have been what could be called the “eds and meds” economies. This includes de-industrialized places such as Pittsburgh (ranked a surprising No. 13), Rochester, N.Y., (ranked No. 17) and Buffalo, N.Y. (No. 20). If you have few more factory jobs to lose, little in-migration and a huge collection of institutions relatively immune to the economic turndown, you have a better chance to look good in bad times. The stimulus tilted more toward education and health than to construction and infrastructure, something that has worked to the favor of these cities.

    We can see this in New York City, whose huge and growing concentration of colleges and hospitals helped propel it to No. 10 among the big regions, its best ranking ever, despite losing almost 130,000 jobs. This is all the more remarkable since the Big Apple was the epicenter of the financial collapse, although that also made it the prime beneficiary of the federal bailout and Wall Street’s boom. Soaring salaries for hedge fund managers and new hires at financial firms could be pacing new growth in the city’s elaborate service industry, from toenail painters, restaurateurs and psychologists to dog walkers and yoga instructors.

    The health of the eds and meds economy, however, has even been enough to lift some traditional bottom-dwelling sad sacks, such as No. 14’s Philadelphia, to unfamiliar, if rather relative, heights. With private-sector growth weak everywhere, cities with lots of big hospitals, universities and nonprofit foundations look better for the time being than they have in a generation.

    The Road Ahead

    We expect our list to change next year, but how it will do so will depend as much on politics as economics. The current policy approaches–with healthy increases in government employment and strong support for education–have worked relatively well for taxpayer-financed economies including those with a strong “eds and meds” sectors. State universities, now confronted with the real pain of the recession felt by state taxpayers, are already crying for heavy increases in federal support.

    But if Congress takes a turn to the center, or even right, after November, the advantageous position of the favored government-supported sectors may erode. Particularly vulnerable will be state workers, whose current federally sanctioned reprieve could be terminated if voters force legislators to start addressing concerns over the huge governmental deficits both locally and nationally. Given D.C.’s unique ability to print money, Washington and its environs will likely continue to expand, as they did under the spendthrift Bush regime, but many state and local governments may be forced onto a stringent diet.

    On the other hand, a welcome return to basic growth in overall economy would further boost those relatively low-cost areas–notably in Texas, the Great Plains and the Intermountain West–that have in recent years enjoyed the strongest trajectory in the non-government related sectors, including natural resource-based industries . These places have pro-business regulatory and tax regimes, lots of available land and affordable housing, which will attract new businesses and workers to their areas.

    This change could also benefit some places, such as Silicon Valley, parts of Southern California and the Pacific Northwest, which despite high costs still retain globally competitive, tech-related sectors. A resurgent job market in these areas would erase the current apparent advantage enjoyed by “eds and meds” based economies in favor of those places that will serve as the real incubators for a revived private sector economy. With the resumption growth, hopefully, our economy next year will begin resembling the more capitalist, competitive one we have enjoyed in the past.

    This article originally appeared at Forbes.com.

    Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography.com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010.

    Photo: kiril106

    April 20, 2010

  • The Millennial Metropolis

    Back in the 1950s and 60s when Baby Boomers were young, places like Los Angeles led the nation’s explosive growth in suburban living that has defined the American Dream ever since. As Kevin Roderick observed, the San Fernando Valley became, by extension, “America’s suburb” – a model which would be repeated in virtually every community across the country.

    These suburbs – perfectly suited to the sun-washed car culture of Southern California – have remained the ideal for most Americans. And they remain so for the children of Boomer and Generation X parents, Millennials,(born 1982-2003), who express the same strong interest in raising their families in suburban settings.

    According to the most recent generational survey research, done for Washington-based think tank, NDN, by Frank N. Magid Associates, 43 percent of Millennials describe suburbs as their “ideal place to live,” compared to just 31 percent of older generations. In the same survey, a majority of older generations (56%) expressed a preference for either small town or rural living. This may reflect the roots of many older Americans, who are more likely to have grown up outside of a major metropolis, or it may indicate a desire of older people for a presumably simpler lifestyle.

    By contrast, these locations were cited by only 34 percent of Millennials as their
    preferred place to live. A majority (54%) of Millennials live in suburban America and most of those who do express a preference for raising their own families in similar settings. Even though big cities are often thought of as the place where young people prefer to live and work, only 17 percent of Millennials say they want to live in one, less than a third of those expressing a preference for suburban living. Nor are they particularly anxious to spend their lives as renters in dense, urban locations. A full 64 percent of Millennials surveyed, said it was “very important” to have an opportunity to own their own home. Twenty percent of adult Millennials named owning a home as one of their most important priorities in life, right behind being a good parent and having a successful marriage.

    This suggests that some of the greatest opportunities in housing will be in those metropolitan areas that can provide the same amenities of suburban life that Los Angeles did sixty years ago. In this Millennials are just like their parents who moved to the suburbs in order to buy their own home, with a front and back yard, however small, in a safe neighborhood with good schools.

    Given the fact that nearly four in five Millennials express a desire to have children, cities that wish to attract Millennials for the long-term will have to offer these same benefits. These Millennial metropolises also will need to be built with the active participation of their citizens, using the most modern communication technologies, to create a community that reflects this generation’s community-oriented values and beliefs. Metropolises that wish to attract Millennials, will also need to include them in their governing institutions. Such cities will have a leg up on those run by closed, good old boy networks that don’t reflect the tolerance and transparency Millennials believe in.

    The passion of Millennials for social networking and smart phones reflects their need to stay in touch with their wide circle of friends every moment of the day and night. In fact, 83 percent of this generation say that they go to sleep with their cell phone. This group-oriented behavior is reflected in the efforts of Millennials to find win-win solutions to any problem and their strong desire to strengthen civic institutions. Seventy percent of college age Millennials have performed some sort of community service and virtually every member of the generation (94%) considers volunteer service as an effective way to deal with challenges in their local community.

    The other key characteristic of the Millenial metropolis will be how it carves out a safe place for children. The Boomer parents of Millennials took intense interest in every aspect of their children’s lives, earning them the sobriquet “helicopter parents” because of their constant hovering. Now the Generation X “stealth fighter parents” of younger Millennials are turning the Boomer desire to hover and talk into a push for action and better bottom line results.

    This can already be seen in cities like Los Angeles where a parent revolution is successfully challenging the entrenched interests in the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD).

    The idea began with a website, www.parentrevolution.org, that offered a bargain to parents willing to participate in a grass roots effort to improve individual schools. The organizers, led by Ben Austin, a long time advocate on behalf of Los Angeles’s kids, promised that if half of the parents in a school attendance district signed an online petition indicating their willingness to participate in improving their local school, they would “give you a great school for your child to attend.”

    This process has worked both in working class areas like East Los Angeles’ Garfield High School and the Mark Twain Middle School in affluent West LA. With the backing of the parents, Austin went to the Los Angeles school district and demanded that they either put the management of the school “out to bid,” or his organization would be forced to respond to the parent’s demands by starting a charter school in competition with the LAUSD school. Since each child has seven thousand dollars of potential state funding in their back pack, a newly enlightened LAUSD agreed to these demands. When 3000 parents showed up to demonstrate their support of the concept, the school district voted 6-1 to adopt a policy mandating competitive bids eventually be issued for the management of all 250 “demonstrably failing schools” as defined by federal education law.

    The key to building the Millenial metropolis will be to accommodate such changes. Places like Dallas, Houston, Austin, or Raleigh-Durham that have survived the Great Recession reasonably well now are focusing on producing open, accessible communities with good schools and safe streets. These communities appear best positioned to take advantage of the next bloom of urban growth. Of course the ability to provide America’s next great generation with good jobs and a growing economy will also be required if any metropolis wants to attract Millennials. But with the right leadership and a sustained effort to focus on the basics of family living, almost any city has the opportunity to become a leader in the rebirth of America’s Millennial Era metropolises.

    Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais are fellows of the New Democrat Network and the New Policy Institute and co-authors of Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube, and the Future of American Politics (Rutgers University Press: 2008), named one of the 10 favorite books by the New York Times in 2008.

    Photo: Papalars

  • The War For Jobs, Part II: Teamwork On The Frontlines

    So if we are in a new war — this one for business and job growth — what role does local government play?

    It would be a mistake to over-emphasize the role of government, especially at the local level. Despite the claims of politicians from both parties about how many jobs their policies “created,” governments don’t create jobs, at least not in the private sector. Ventura, for example, is estimated to generate about seven to eight billion dollars in annual economic activity. The sales and profitability of thousands of individual businesses are only marginally impacted by what goes on at City Hall, no matter what cheerleaders or critics might claim.

    Still, local government can obviously contribute to a healthier economic climate — and it can certainly get in the way of one.

    There are four broad areas where our impact (good and bad) is greatest: services and infrastructure; taxation; regulation; and encouragement.

    When local Chambers of Commerce advocate for “business-friendly” policies, they usually underplay the most important function of local government: providing vital services (from policing to clean water) and key infrastructure (from roads to sewer pipes). That’s the core function of government, and the more cost-effectively local government does that, the better it is for local business.

    Yet it’s taxation, regulation and “encouragement” that advocates and critics focus on, and argue over endlessly. Important questions. But there is a catalytic spark when encouraging business starts with two simple words: teamwork and focus.

    That’s where we in Ventura are putting our energy to grow business and high value, high wage jobs.

    We’ve put together a team to focus on the business sectors that will drive economic recovery. Alex Schneider directs our successful Ventura Ventures Technology Center. With thirteen start-up high tech businesses, it’s the tangible outcome of our intense focus on new economy business development. On the first of May, Joey Briglio returns to work on green business development. We are transferring Eric Wallner from the Community Services Department to capitalize on his expertise in growing our visitor and creative business sector.

    These new assignments complete the team that also includes Economic Development Manager Sid White and Ventura Business Ombudsman Alex Herrera. White concentrates on Downtown Redevelopment, real estate, Auto Center redevelopment, general business assistance/loan programs, and ongoing work with County Economic Development organizations. Herrera provides personal access and follow-through for local businesses of all sizes. All are assigned to the Community Development Department under Director Jeff Lambert. As City Manager, I’m taking a hands-on approach to working directly with all of them on our new business strategy.

    This is our team. This is our focus.

    Past battles over land use gave Ventura a reputation for being “anti-business.” We can argue ‘til the cows come home whether this was fair or not. But why re-fight those battles? We’re in a new war and our goal is to change our reputation by winning the battles ahead.

    Almost nobody in Ventura wants to pave the city with oversized real estate overdevelopment. Almost everybody wants robust business growth to generate local jobs, enhance the range of private goods and services available to local residents, and to augment revenue to support public services. When 200 Ventura business and community leaders assembled last May for our Economic Summit, what emerged was a community consensus that is as wide as it is deep: focus on growing our own businesses, especially green ones — and increasingly, every business is turning greener.

    In all the buzz about ‘green jobs’ in the energy sector, it’s important to focus on ‘clean tech’ innovation in every field. Our own Patagonia is a blue-chip model for the green future. In recent years, top executives from Walmart, GE and other global giants have visited Patagonia’s downtown Ventura headquarters to study their rigorous focus on reducing waste and shifting to more sustainable supply chains. Is Patagonia a pioneer in renewable forms of energy? No, they make outdoor clothes. Their local workforce exemplifies the opportunity America – and even high-cost coastal California – still has to lead the world in producing globally-competitive quality products and services.

    It was a theme hammered home by Mayor Bill Fulton in his State of the City speech this year:

    “We are fortunate to be located close to two major economic engines… that constantly spin off startup businesses in the high-tech and biotech centers: UC Santa Barbara to our north and Amgen to our south.

    In the past two years, Ventura has made a major effort — unlike any other city in this region — to connect with these institutions, with startup entrepreneurs, and with venture capitalists, to encourage spin-off businesses to locate and grow here in Ventura. And it’s working. Today — for the first time — we are part of the high-tech/biotech business ecosystem.

    “This is a time of great change and uncertainty in our society. Old ways of doing things are falling by the wayside quickly, and new ways are emerging rapidly. Such times can be frightening, but they are also pregnant with great possibilities. We in Ventura are very determined and well positioned to take advantage of those opportunities in order to reinforce Ventura as a great place to live and work.”

    For a city committed to living within our means, we are focusing our team on earning a reputation that Ventura is serious about winning the new war for jobs. We hope to be a pioneer in forging strategy and tactics that will set the standard for other cities in California tackling the urgent task of reinventing the California dream. Reinvigorating the seventh largest economy on the planet will be based on victory in the war on jobs.

    This article is part two of a two-part series by Rick Cole on the war for jobs.

    Flckr photo of Ventura at night by Wink

    Rick Cole is city manager of Ventura, California, and 2009 recipient of the Municipal Management Association of Southern California’s Excellence in Government Award. He can be reached at RCole@ci.ventura.ca.us

  • The War For Jobs Trumps The War For Sales Tax Dollars: Part I

    At the beginning of every war, generals always try to fight the last one. Experienced professionals are often the last to realize the times and terrain have changed.

    Since the passage of Proposition 13 — the 1978 ‘taxpayer revolt’ against California property taxes — most California cities have focused on generating sales tax. Property tax, which had been the traditional backbone of local revenue, was slashed by 60%, sparking an intense Darwinian struggle between cities for sales tax market share. During the nineties, the cities along the 101 Corridor in Ventura County competed intensely in the “mall wars” over which cities would get auto dealers and major retailers. The City of Ventura won some and lost some, but during the last consumer boom we were still number two in the County in sales tax per capita, after Thousand Oaks.

    This intercity competition spawned redevelopment megadeals, tax sharing agreements and fawning over chain stores and “big boxes.” “Public-private partnerships” was the name given to deals cut with favored developers and retailers. Some cities won the lottery (Camarillo declared its strawberry fields next to the freeway “blighted” in order to grab redevelopment funding to build its successful outlet center), and some lost (Oxnard’s planned 600,000 square foot “Riverpark Collection” sits vacant and forlorn, and the city’s downtown theater and restaurant development scrapes along with continuing city subsidies).

    With the steep drop in sales tax revenue across California, cities are tempted to try that much harder to grab a bigger slice of a shrinking pie. That’s why a major retailer that pays low wages to mainly part-time employees stills gets more attention and help from cities than a similar size manufacturer or company headquarters paying top salaries. That’s why cities review detailed reports on their top 100 retailers every quarter and don’t even keep lists of their top 100 employers.

    But that is fighting the last war. In the debt-fueled boom that crashed in 2007, 70% of every dollar was going to consumer spending, as consumers tapped their credit cards and home equity loans. To cash in on that spending spree, developers could continue to build new shopping centers and auto malls.

    Now all that has changed. Consumers not only have less income and credit, they are saddled with more debt. Even a recovery in consumer buying power might not translate into needing more stores, as the Internet changes the way people live, shop and entertain themselves. Retail square footage will be slashed as inventory is digitized (think e-books) or as consumers take advantage of an electronic market that offers infinitely more variety than any store (think Zappos Shoes and More.)

    Today’s sharp drop in sales tax is an economic Pearl Harbor. The next war has already begun. Cities will need to fight, not for more stores, but for high wage private sector jobs that can directly compete in the brutal global economy. There are two basic ways to do that: provide value through local advantage, or provide world-class quality.

    Local advantage is not easy. Local retailers and service businesses still compete with corporate giants by adapting to serve a local clientele. Our downtown is primarily made up of these niche companies, serving local customers and clients. But economies of scale continue to favor bigger players.

    World-class quality is even harder. “Buy American” is a nice slogan, but most Americans pay no attention to labels on their underwear or their autos. To sustain high wage jobs, companies located here must overcome the cost disadvantage of operating in coastal California by providing products or services that are worth the premium.

    Patagonia, the outdoor specialty clothing powerhouse, is a high profile success story for competing in the world economy. Although they do nearly $400 million in annual sales, most of the company’s actual work (manufacturing, shipping, back office functions and retailing) takes place elsewhere. But its highest-value headquarters function remains in Ventura, providing 200 high quality, high wage jobs. Their unique passion for a green supply chain landed them on the cover of Fortune as “The Coolest Company on the Planet.”

    Can cities be as effective at growing these kinds of companies as they have been at luring Walmarts and Lexus dealers?

    Ventura is a test case. Our Ventura Ventures Technology Center and quest for Google Fiber are innovative experiments. We are “incubating” thirteen tiny start-ups – and fostering what Lottay CEO Harry Lin, an experienced high tech entrepreneur, calls a “technology ecosystem” of connected players in the new company game.

    If we succeed in our efforts to promote new and expanded “world class quality” companies and the high wage, high value jobs they produce, will that help pay the bills for city services? Isn’t a new Walmart still a better bet?

    The answer is not clear-cut. A new Walmart will provide some tangible real revenue, particularly if it diverts Ventura residents from driving to Oxnard to shop at their Walmart. But if Walmart primarily takes customers away from our two Targets and our other retail outlets, there’s little actual gain in revenue. And the point is, in a shrinking retail market (lower incomes, lower spending, more diversion to the Internet), there isn’t much opportunity to keep adding new stores, especially in a competitive market where Oxnard is trying to fill up the brand new center they have sitting vacant. To refill our recent sales tax declines, we’d need the net sales tax of about ten new Walmarts, or their equivalent. For obvious reasons, that can’t happen and won’t. It still makes sense to “buy local” where a penny on every dollar stays home to fund city services. But we can’t build enough stores to restore a prosperous economy or the community services we’ve had to slash.

    So while Ventura’s entrepreneurial emphasis on high wage jobs may be experimental, at least we are fighting the right war. It will be a while before we know whether we are winning. But fighting the last war is a sure loser. Even if the economy “recovers,” it will be years before the region’s retail space is filled — if ever. The best thing we can do to create a healthy retail environment is to generate new wealth in our region through robust business and job growth.

    In the early years following Proposition 13, some cities led the way toward retail development in the war for sales tax dollars. Today, Ventura is adopting new tactics and weapons in the war for jobs. That may seem like a new and untested strategy. It is. Yet in a changing world, there is great opportunity to rebuild local prosperity on a new and stronger foundation.

    This article is part one of a two-part series by Rick Cole on the new war for jobs.

    Flckr photo of Ventura by ah zut

    Rick Cole is city manager of Ventura, California, and 2009 recipient of the Municipal Management Association of Southern California’s Excellence in Government Award. He can be reached at RCole@ci.ventura.ca.us

  • Denver Relocation: The Search for Higher Ground

    In 2003 our family relocated to Folsom, California from Carson City, Nevada, after my father-in-law was diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease, to help with his care. In many ways the transition felt like an immersion into what Joel Kotkin calls the “city of aspiration.” Folsom, a Sacramento region suburb of 50,000, was notable for its robust economy, impressive K-12 schools, world-class bike paths, and low crime. It offered a favorable environment for families and upwardly mobile professionals.

    Seven years later, the landscape has certainly changed. My father-in-law has passed on, and California’s high cost of living continues to have a profound impact on our personal finances. This scenario, coupled with the currently dire economic picture, gave my wife and I pause to again rethink our future path. After many long nights of thoughtful dialogue, we came to the realization that it was time to break ties with the Golden State. In early summer, Denver will become our next home.

    This pending relocation offers our family an opportunity to embrace what I call “the geography of place”— the merging of what one wants to do with where one wants to live. As a process, it embodies a deep exploration into our values and upbringing, hopes and fears, past and future. And while a move of any distance can be daunting, it’s this deeper journey of self that makes the experience rich and meaningful.

    Our plans come at a time of decline in nationwide domestic relocation. Prominent demographer William Frey, in conjunction with the Brookings Institution, led a recent study on migration trends. He found that in 2007-08, the overall U.S. migration rate reached its lowest point since World War II, particularly for long-distance moves and renters. His study also indicated that migrations to exurban and newer suburban counties dropped substantially, simultaneously bringing unanticipated population “windfalls” to many large urban centers. The overall rate of decline is largely attributed to the economic slowdown crippling many parts of the nation, leading to job and income loss as well as upside down mortgages.

    Deciding where to settle down during these uncertain times required a well-thought-out process grounded in a clear set of criteria. After much discussion, we developed the five-C approach to classify our optimum home locale:

    1. Culture: Our ideal environment should have a rich, culturally diverse set of demographics. As a biracial family, social acceptance in our community is paramount.

    2. Charm: Our perfect residential picture is a neighborhood that represents a hybrid of walkable urbanism, housing affordability, safety, and community, which are often found in more suburban environs.

    3. Community: We both enjoy opportunities for civic connection. Proximity to hubs of social connection – such as coffee houses and universities – is a must.

    4. Convenience: By choice we are a one-car household, which makes bicycle, light-rail and walkable accessibility to centers of city activity and conveniences key.

    5. Climate: As a native Midwesterner married to a Southern Californian, we found common ground in a locale offering a change of seasons with generally moderate temperature.

    The upshot of our vetting process had some correspondence with a recent Best Cities for a Fresh Start list compiled by relocation.com. Topping that list is Austin, Texas, an impressive city that I recently visited as a part of my urban research study tour. The Dallas/Ft. Worth area came in second, followed by Charlotte, North Carolina. Denver was fourth, with Columbus, Ohio (my hometown) and Indianapolis tying for fifth on the list.

    Our personal list yielded five locations:

    Portland, Oregon: This Pacific Northwest jewel has received much media attention for its progressive urban practices. And for good reason. It boasts strong community and civic vibes, great neighborhoods, a transportation system ranked among the best in the nation, and a hip, urbane population base. In the end, though, the overcast, rainy climate was too much to overcome in a transition from ever-sunny California.

    Ft. Worth, Texas: For economic vibrancy Ft. Worth, with its sister-city, Dallas, tops the list. It also has good reputation for housing options, schools, civic pride, and decent weather. On the downside, property taxes are a bit high (we estimate 6 to 10 times higher than Denver). And as a bi-racial couple we had some reservations since, as one area resident put it, “Texas is still the South.”

    Boise, Idaho: Despite concerns about Boise’s diversity, the area has extremely low housing costs. Its strong university presence (Boise State) and vibrant downtown were also appealing. On the downside, the airport would have posed some travel limitations. Moreover, the area lacks the depth of social and cultural options common in more urbanized settings.

    Indianapolis, Indiana: Having lived in the Indianapolis area in the early ‘90s, this state capital has always held a special place in my heart, with its strong African-American communities, myriad array of spectator sports, and low cost of living. While I’ll always be a Hoosier at heart, the advantages of this Midwestern city were outweighed by its bleak winter climate. My wife’s need for sunshine booted it out of contention.

    And then there was Denver.

    Denver, our city of choice, impressed us with its myriad quality-of-life intangibles. While not on the order of California, it is culturally diverse with a strong sense of civic vibrancy. The area offers a wealth of housing options that fit our parameters: semi-urban, walkable, affordable, and safe.

    Culturally, the city has a young, active vibe to it. People are involved in varied outdoor activities and events, which underscore the recognition of Denver as one of the most physically fit cities in the U.S. Many have also described it as unpretentious. It has a progressive political structure, as well as a strong economic development platform for the future.

    With a population of nearly 600,000, Denver is the 24th most populous city in the U.S. and the 16th most populous metropolitan area in the nation. Geographically, it’s located in the center of the U.S., nestled in a mountain range that makes harsh cold weather and winds a rarity. While the city gets its fair share of snow, the winter months are rarely bleak. In fact, a draw for many residents is the 300-plus days of sunshine the city receives each year.

    We stand to gain immeasurably moving from über-expensive California. And in terms of intangibles, several are prominent. We’re looking to capitalize on Denver’s new urbanist-influenced walkability. The city has lots of options, from the hip and trendy Lo Do District to the established community of Capitol Hill. A key requirement of our ultimate housing choice will be a quality school district, along with proximity to transportation, coffee houses, grocery stores, fine dining venues, and even co-working sites. In our current residence in Folsom, California, it’s a challenge to stroll by foot to area amenities.

    As intellectually inclined individuals, it was also exciting to find that Denver holds the distinction of being the most educated city in the U.S. with the highest percentage of high school and college graduates of any U.S. metropolitan area. According to census estimates, 92% of the metro area population has a high school diploma, and 35% has at least a bachelor’s degree, compared to the national average of 81.7% for high school diplomas and 23% with a college degree.

    And finally, as a former resident of Indianapolis, a city that fed my obsession for spectator sports, Denver’s robust athletics scene certainly raised my heart rate. The hub of professional franchises in football, basketball, baseball, and hockey, it is one of the nation’s top sports meccas. It has certainly sparked a picture in my mind of hanging out at sporting events, beer in hand, enjoying the scene.

    In the end, relocating to a new geographical locale is never smooth. It requires a great deal of thoughtfulness, conversation and patience. My family views it as the ultimate “Mile High” climb for higher ground amid the economic unsettledness currently affecting California. If well-orchestrated, the payoff will be significant: a better quality of life and a rich existence. That’s our hope; that’s our goal for 2010.

    Photo of Denver’s Lo Do district by Michael Scott

    Michael P. Scott is a Northern California urban journalist, demographic researcher and technical writer. He can be reached at michael@vdowntownamerica.com.

  • All In The Family

    For over a generation pundits, policymakers and futurists have predicted the decline of the American family. Yet in reality, the family, although changing rapidly, is becoming not less but more important.

    This can be traced to demographic shifts, including immigration and extended life spans, as well as to changes of attitudes among our increasingly diverse population. Furthermore, severe economic pressures are transforming the family–as they have throughout much of history–into the ultimate “safety net” for millions of people.

    Those who argue the family is less important note that barely one in five households–although more than one-third of the total population–consists of a married couple with children living at home. Yet family relations are more complex than that; people remain tied to one another well after they first move away. My mother, at 87, is still my mother, after all, as well as the grandmother to my daughters. Those ties still dominate her actions and attitudes.

    Critically, marriage, the basis of the family, is also far from a dying institution. Sociologist Andrew Cherlin notes that over 80% of Americans eventually get married, often after a period of cohabitation. Later marriages are also reflected in later childrearing. Younger women today may be less likely to have children, but far more older women are giving birth; since 1982 the number of those over 35 who give birth has more than tripled. This trend has accelerated and will continue to do so given advances in natal science.

    More important, people continue to value the stability and cohesion that only families can provide. According to social historian Stephanie Coontz, Americans today are more likely to be in regular contact with their parents than in the past. Some 90% consider their parental relations close, and far more children are likely to live with at least one parent now than they were as recently as the 1940s.

    To be sure, as Coontz makes clear, the 21st-century family will not reprise the Ozzie-and-Harriet norms of the 1950s. Everything from divorce to immigration and gay marriage is reshaping family relations. While Americans may “swing back” to a more family-oriented society, social historian Alan Wolfe notes, “it will be with a difference.”

    But family will remain the central force that informs our communities and economy. For example, when people move, a 2008 Pew study reveals, they tend to go to areas where they have relatives. Family, as one Pew researcher notes, “trumps money when people make decisions about where to live.”

    Perhaps nothing better illustrates this trend than the increase in multigenerational households. As people live longer and produce offspring later, family ties are strengthening. A recent Pew survey reveals that the number of households accommodating at least two adult generations has grown in recent years. Today the percentage of such multigenerational households–some 16%–is higher than any time since the 1950s and swelled by some 7 million since 2000. At the same time, the once rapid growth of single-person households, which nearly tripled since the 1950s, has begun to slow and, among those over 65, has declined in recent years.

    Rather than be hived off in isolation, grandparents are playing a larger role in family life, both as financial supporters and as sources of reliable child care. Living with or being close to grandparents is particularly important for younger Americans, many of whom are struggling to raise families in expensive regions such as New York or Los Angeles. As Queens resident and real estate agent Judy Markowitz puts it, “In Manhattan, people with kids have nannies. In Queens, we have grandparents.”

    As these caregivers age, in turn, they will require help for themselves. One welcome change, already evolving, is the number of older adults moving in with their children. Institutionalized care for people over 75, once seen as inevitable, has dropped since the mid-1980s, as more families hire part-time help or have aging parents move in with them.

    Today as many as 6 million grandparents live with their offspring, allowing, by one estimate, as many as half a million people to avoid nursing homes. Between 2000 and 2007, according to the Census Bureau, the number of people over 65 living with adult children increased by more than 50%. One California builder reports that one third of new home buyers want a “granny flat,” an addition to accommodate an aging parent. Roughly one third of American homes have the potential to create such units. In the coming decades homes that can be adapted to the changing needs of families will become an increasingly desirable commodity.

    Arguably the strongest force for continued importance of family comes from the two groups, ethnic minorities and millennials, who will shape the next few decades. Immigrants, particularly Latinos and Asians, are also far more likely to live in married households with children than are other Americans. They are also more than twice as likely, according to Pew, to live in households with at least two adult generations.

    The other key group will be the millennials, those Americans born since 1982. As noted generational researchers Morley Winograd and Mike Hais suggest in their landmark book Millennial Makeover, the rising “millennial” or “echo boom” generation–those born after 1983–enjoy more favorable relations with their parents: Half stay in daily touch, and almost all are in weekly contact.

    The millennials, Winograd and Hais suggest, generally do not share the generational angst that defined many boomers. Indeed three-quarters of 13-to-24-year-olds, according to one 2007 survey, consider time spent with family the greatest source of happiness, rating it even higher than time spent with friends or a significant other. And they seem determined to start families of their own: More than 80% think getting married will make them happy, and some 77% say they definitely or probably will want children, while less than 12% say they likely will not.

    The current tough economic conditions may be slowing family formation but is clearly bolstering close, long-term ties between children and parents. One quarter of Gen Xers, for example, still receive financial help from their parents, as do nearly a third of those under 25.This trend has been mounting since well before the recession. Ten percent of all adults younger than 35 told Pew researchers last year that they had moved in with their parents over the past year.

    Higher college debts, high home prices and a less-than-vibrant job market could all extend this virtual adolescence in which children maintain strong ties of dependence into adulthood. Although these conditions may increase support for more governmental assistance among some, young people are finding out there’s one institution that, despite political shifts, really can be counted on: the family.

    This article originally appeared at Forbes.com.

    Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography.com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in Febuary, 2010.

    Photo: driki