Tag: California

  • Salinas Dispatch: A Silver Lining in the Golden State

    From a distance, a crisis often takes on ideological colorings. This is true in California, where the ongoing fiscal meltdown has devolved into a struggle between anti-tax conservatives and free-spending green leftist liberals.

    Yet more nuances surface when you approach a crisis from the context of a specific place. Over the past two years my North Dakota-based consulting partner, Delore Zimmerman, and I have been working in Salinas, a farm community of 150,000, 10 miles inland from the Monterey coast and an hour’s drive south of San Jose. Our work has been funded by a variety of sources, including the city, local business interests and the Chamber of Commerce.

    Our goal has been to find ways to promote upward mobility in the town, which is almost two-thirds Hispanic. Poverty is widespread, and gang problems rank among the worst in California. Unemployment, devastated by the recent recession, hangs at around 15%.

    These conditions are not at all unusual for inland California, and they are particularly prevalent in farm regions. In the Central Valley, over the next range of mountains, conditions are far worse, with some communities losing thousands of acres in production and unemployment rushing upward of 40%.

    One liberal journalist, Rick Wartzman, recently described the vast agricultural region around Fresno as “California’s Detroit.” As environmentalists push to cut back on water supplies and protect fish populations in the San Francisco Bay Delta, Wartzman notes, its local workers and businesspeople “are fast becoming a more endangered species than Chinook salmon or delta smelt.”

    In Salinas, where water comes from local aquifers, wells and the Salinas River, death seems less imminent, but there is a profound sense that things may be deteriorating. Local growers worry about regulatory constraints that will drive up costs to meet new state greenhouse gas standards. They also fear a possible county initiative, promoted by the well-funded local greens, to ban the growing of genetically modified foods.

    The growers’ response to the pressure – as with other businesses in California – is not to quit but to scale down operations. Some are cutting back thousands of acres of lettuce and other green crops that have been the prime business for the area for nearly a century.

    Yet we also see many reasons for hope. Salinas remains a unique place with an amazing richness in what the French call terroir, a combination of climate and soil. The city’s most famous son, John Steinbeck, wrote of the Valley’s unique topography:

    “The high gray-flannel fog of winter closed off the Salinas Valley from the sky and the rest of the world. On every side it sat like a lid on the mountains and made of the great valley a closed pot.”

    Growing conditions in Salinas cannot be easily duplicated elsewhere. Its richness has created a cornucopia responsible for the predominant part of the area’s private-sector employment.

    But it’s not just physical factors that make Salinas – and California – so productive. People matter too. The area is populated by scores of hard-driving agricultural families, people whose forebears transformed the place into the “salad bowl” of a nation. By 1952, when Steinbeck published East of Eden, Salinas produced 70% of the nation’s lettuce and much of its fresh vegetables.

    Salinas’ growers are not hereditary gentry; talk to local farmers and you find people whose roots lay in Italy, Portugal, Ireland, Japan and, increasingly, Mexico. “People, if given opportunity, can accomplish anything,” notes Lorri Kester, CEO of Mann Packing, a leading broccoli producer. “Many of the firms that lead us now were started by ‘Okies’ who worked the land. Now we see the same things with Latinos who started out as hands and now are foremen or managers.”

    What the Salinas growers do best – like their high-tech counterparts up in the Santa Clara Valley – is innovate. Working with the USDA and University of California-Davis scientists, they have led the way in creating new strains of vegetables and new ways of marketing, including the notion of “salad in a bag.”

    But not all the knowledge that makes Salinas such an economic powerhouse comes from entrepreneurs or PhDs. Like many agricultural communities, Salinas has had a sometime brutal labor history, particularly in the 1930s. The worst of this is now thankfully over, but farm labor remains a tough and often unrewarding profession.

    Yet even the hardest-edged growers acknowledge the importance of their labor force. Although education levels remain relatively low, our research revealed an extraordinarily high concentration of people with practical skills that can be applied to growing the agricultural economy. Future mechanization may reduce the overall employee counts but will make growers even more dependent on skilled workers in the fields.

    This proficiency, acquired in the fields and the processing sheds, has helped create another product for the Valley: expertise. Salinas growers, foreman, irrigation workers and marketers now sell their knowledge in other parts of California, as well as to Arizona, Mexico and, increasingly, East Asia. “I am seeing a lot of product and technical products from Salinas go to China and elsewhere,” notes Frank Pierce, a local agricultural consultant.

    Salinas also teaches you to avoid the great distinction made by many pundits between the “knowledge” industry and the productive type that focuses on tangible goods. A successful economy draws on information but also creates real products. There is a relationship between the two that is dynamic and has long been a critical component of California’s economic vitality.

    This is not just true of Salinas. I learned long ago from the founding fathers of Silicon Valley – people like Intel founder Bob Noyce and venture capitalist Don Valentine – that the practical knowledge from making circuits and chips helped create the Valley’s unique engineering terroir. Similarly, the “magic” of Hollywood does not emerge full-blown from the brain storms of stars and moguls. The entertainment complex’s unique abilities grow from the interplay of practical knowledge of less glamorous camera people, grips, editors, caterers and prop-managers servicing what Angelenos invariably refer to as “the industry.”

    Sadly, this insight largely has been lost on California’s political and business leadership. Among the so-called “progressive” community, production of any kind, outside of small artisanal farms or funky software shops, is disdained.

    This anti-development ethos has gained extra traction by claims that large farms and factories might add to the “carbon footprint” of a given place. Among well-funded foundations and some corporate leaders there remains an implicit sense that California can still mine enough riches in cyberspace to support the vast hoi polloi.

    Yet in reality, Californians need hard jobs, even mundane ones. The farm, sound stage or electronics factory provide the employment essential to broad-based prosperity. And when those jobs leave California they usually migrate to a place – whether over the border or abroad – where wages are lower and environmental controls are far weaker.

    This is not to argue that California’s right has the answers either. Lower taxes are generally preferable to higher ones. But in Salinas – and California – sometimes higher taxes might be preferable to cutting services, like the critical training offered by community colleges, which make the economy work and offer hope to the younger generation.

    In Salinas, Mayor Dennis Donahue, a Democrat of the Pat Brown variety, has embraced a call to raise the sales tax in order to maintain basic services. It’s not an ideal solution, but in the real world of running a city, particularly one with a big gang problem, you don’t want to cut back on police and libraries or add to already surging unemployment.

    What California needs most now is what it’s most missing: common sense and a sense of balance. This is what we learned in Salinas. California cannot be saved by ideologies – it needs to be saved from them.

    To be sure, preserving the land and air quality should remain a priority; it is the basis of California’s riches and unique appeal. But sustainability – the great buzzword of our time – needs to apply not only to the environment but also the economy and society. The right-wing solution of lower taxes even at the price of eviscerating the public sector and letting the infrastructure deteriorate does not constitute a program for long-term prosperity.

    We prefer an approach that focuses on practical steps for private and public sectors to collaborate on restoring economic growth. In Salinas, this means establishing – through cooperation with Hartnell, the local community college – a center for the development of agricultural technology. Salinas could use its combination of intellectual and grassroots knowledge to become the Silicon Valley of the “fresh” economy. It would also serve as a center of practical research on E. coli and other diseases that threaten the entire agricultural industry.

    Another step would be to expand the area’s thriving wine corridor to promote the region’s vintages. And there needs to be a plan to restore the historic central core into a bustling business district and to attract the predominately Latino shoppers, now lured to malls and outlet centers outside the city, back into town.

    These steps will take effort and money, but neither free market ideology nor green zealotry alone will get it done. California’s greatness was created not just by entrepreneurs or through its public sector, but in a clever, pragmatic melding of the two. Blessed with resources of topography, climate and human skill, our state should not allow dueling extremes to turn a global paragon into a planetary laughingstock.

    This article originally appeared at Forbes.

    Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography.com and is a presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His next book, The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, will be published by Penguin early next year.

  • The Next Global Financial Crisis: Public Debt

    The cloud of the global financial meltdown has not even cleared, yet another crisis of massive proportions looms on the horizon: global sovereign (public) debt.

    This crisis, like so many others, has its root in the free flow of credit from the preceding economic boom years. The market prices of assets were rising steadily. Rising valuations, especially where they were based on improving revenues from robust economic activity, led to rising income streams for governments. This encouraged governments to borrow more, perhaps often to expand services – and the bureaucracy required to offer services – although sometimes to improve infrastructure.

    At the same time, rising market prices for financial assets encouraged more savers and investors into the market. That led to an increasing supply of investable funds, which drove demand for sovereign and municipal debt (in addition to the mortgage-backed securities). This process, driven by the financial services industry instead of the real economy, is eerily similar to the driving forces behind the “subprime crisis.” The demand for public offerings pulled more debt issuance out of borrowers with seemingly little concern for repayment: the financial sector gains its profits from issuance fees, trading fees, underwriting fees, etc. As in the case of mortgages, it will be those who buy and hold the debt, along with the borrowers, who will suffer the consequences.

    Certainly, emerging nations took advantage of the depth of rich nation capital markets to increase their debt through public offerings. At the end of June 2009, only Italy, Turkey and Brazil were covered by more credit default swap contracts than JP Morgan Chase and Bank of America. In addition to those two global banks, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Telekom AG, France Telecom and Wells Fargo Bank all have more credit derivate coverage than the Philippines.

    Yet there is clearly a potential default problem here. Gross credit default swaps outstanding for the debt of Iceland are equal to 66 percent of GDP, about 20 percent of GDP for Hungary and the Philippines and around 18 percent for Latvia, Portugal, Panama and Bulgaria. If these countries default on their debt, those global banks who sell credit derivatives will be making enormous payments – whether or not the defaulting countries receive any support or bailouts from international donor organizations (like World Bank or International Monetary Fund).

    The table below shows the GDP for the countries named in the most credit default swap contracts (as most recently reported to Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation). For each sovereign (country, state or city), we show the value of their public debt both as a figure and as a percent of GDP. The telling factor here is that the “financial markets,” if they are to be believed, judge these entities as more likely to experience “a credit event” than others. A credit event, as we learned when the AIG saga unraveled can be anything from a decline in the market price of debt to an outright default on payments.

    Sovereigns named in most credit default protection*
    Sovereign Entity  GDP (2008)  Share World GDP (est) Public Debt (current) Debt % GDP
    JAPAN  $     4,348,000,000,000 8.6%  $  7,408,992,000,000 170.4%
    REPUBLIC OF ITALY  $     1,821,000,000,000 3.4%  $  1,888,377,000,000 103.7%
    HELLENIC REPUBLIC (Greece)  $        343,600,000,000 0.4%  $      309,583,600,000 90.1%
    KINGDOM OF BELGIUM  $        390,500,000,000 0.6%  $      315,524,000,000 80.8%
    STATE OF ISRAEL  $        200,700,000,000 0.4%  $      151,929,900,000 75.7%
    REPUBLIC OF HUNGARY  $        205,700,000,000 0.3%  $      151,806,600,000 73.8%
    FRENCH REPUBLIC  $     2,097,000,000,000 3.8%  $  1,404,990,000,000 67.0%
    PORTUGUESE REPUBLIC  $        237,300,000,000 0.4%  $      152,346,600,000 64.2%
    FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY  $     2,863,000,000,000 4.7%  $  1,792,238,000,000 62.6%
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA  $   14,290,000,000,000 21.4%  $  8,688,320,000,000 60.8%
    REPUBLIC OF AUSTRIA  $        325,000,000,000 0.5%  $      191,100,000,000 58.8%
    REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES  $        320,600,000,000 0.5%  $      181,139,000,000 56.5%
    KINGDOM OF NORWAY  $        256,500,000,000 0.3%  $      133,380,000,000 52.0%
    ARGENTINE REPUBLIC  $        575,600,000,000 0.8%  $      293,556,000,000 51.0%
    REPUBLIC OF CROATIA  $           73,360,000,000 0.1%  $        35,873,040,000 48.9%
    REPUBLIC OF COLOMBIA  $        399,400,000,000 0.6%  $      191,712,000,000 48.0%
    UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND  $     2,231,000,000,000 3.5%  $  1,053,032,000,000 47.2%
    REPUBLIC OF PANAMA  $           38,490,000,000 0.0%  $        17,859,360,000 46.4%
    KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS  $        670,200,000,000 0.3%  $      288,186,000,000 43.0%
    MALAYSIA  $        386,600,000,000 0.3%  $      165,078,200,000 42.7%
    KINGDOM OF THAILAND  $        553,400,000,000 0.9%  $      232,428,000,000 42.0%
    REPUBLIC OF POLAND  $        667,400,000,000 0.7%  $      277,638,400,000 41.6%
    FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF BRAZIL  $     1,990,000,000,000 2.7%  $      809,930,000,000 40.7%
    SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF VIETNAM  $        241,800,000,000 0.5%  $        93,334,800,000 38.6%
    KINGDOM OF SPAIN  $     1,378,000,000,000 1.8%  $      516,750,000,000 37.5%
    REPUBLIC OF TURKEY  $        906,500,000,000 1.1%  $      336,311,500,000 37.1%
    KINGDOM OF SWEDEN  $        348,600,000,000 0.6%  $      127,239,000,000 36.5%
    SLOVAK REPUBLIC  $        119,500,000,000 0.2%  $        41,825,000,000 35.0%
    REPUBLIC OF FINLAND  $        195,200,000,000 0.3%  $        64,416,000,000 33.0%
    REPUBLIC OF KOREA  $     1,278,000,000,000 1.4%  $      417,906,000,000 32.7%
    IRELAND  $        191,900,000,000 0.4%  $        60,448,500,000 31.5%
    REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA  $        915,900,000,000 1.7%  $      275,685,900,000 30.1%
    REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA  $        489,700,000,000 0.5%  $      146,420,300,000 29.9%
    CZECH REPUBLIC  $        266,300,000,000 0.5%  $        78,292,200,000 29.4%
    REPUBLIC OF PERU  $        238,900,000,000 0.2%  $        57,574,900,000 24.1%
    REPUBLIC OF ICELAND  $           12,150,000,000 0.0%  $          2,794,500,000 23.0%
    REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA  $           59,140,000,000 0.1%  $        13,010,800,000 22.0%
    KINGDOM OF DENMARK  $        204,900,000,000 0.4%  $        44,668,200,000 21.8%
    UNITED MEXICAN STATES  $     1,559,000,000,000 1.9%  $      316,477,000,000 20.3%
    BOLIVARIAN REPUBLIC OF VENEZUELA  $        357,900,000,000 0.6%  $        62,274,600,000 17.4%
    REPUBLIC OF LATVIA  $           39,980,000,000 0.1%  $          6,796,600,000 17.0%
    REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA  $           93,780,000,000 0.2%  $        15,661,260,000 16.7%
    PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA  $     7,800,000,000,000 7.7%  $  1,224,600,000,000 15.7%
    ROMANIA  $        271,200,000,000 0.3%  $        38,239,200,000 14.1%
    REPUBLIC OF LITHUANIA  $           63,250,000,000 0.1%  $          7,526,750,000 11.9%
    UKRAINE  $        337,000,000,000 0.6%  $        33,700,000,000 10.0%
    REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN  $        176,900,000,000 0.3%  $        16,097,900,000 9.1%
    RUSSIAN FEDERATION  $     2,225,000,000,000 4.3%  $      151,300,000,000 6.8%
    STATE OF QATAR  $           85,350,000,000 0.2%  $          5,121,000,000 6.0%
    STATE OF NEW YORK  $     1,144,481,000,000 2.1%  $        48,500,000,000 4.2%
    STATE OF CALIFORNIA  $     1,801,762,000,000 3.4%  $        69,400,000,000 3.9%
    REPUBLIC OF CHILE  $        245,300,000,000 0.3%  $          9,321,400,000 3.8%
    REPUBLIC OF ESTONIA  $           27,720,000,000 0.1%  $          1,053,360,000 3.8%
    STATE OF FLORIDA  $        744,120,000,000 1.4%  $        24,100,000,000 3.2%
    THE CITY OF NEW YORK  $     1,123,532,000,000 2.1%  $        55,823,000,000 **
    *List from Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation. [www.dtcc.com] Dubai was also on this list, but debt and GDP data were not available.
    **NYC GDP includes entire NY-NJ-PA metropolitan statistical area; debt is for City of NY only.
    Countries in Italics have never failed to meet their debt repayment schedules (Reinhart and Rogoff 2008); Thailand and Korea received IMF assistance to avoid default in the 1990s.

    The obvious consequence is that a crisis in sovereign debt would cause problems not just within those nations, states or cities – but also among their trading and economic partners, among their lenders (banks, sovereigns or international donor organizations) as well as the global financial institutions who sold default protection through the credit derivatives markets. The financial impact would be more than anything we have seen so far: most global financial institutions received bailouts from their sovereign governments to soften or at least delay the impact of the September 2008 financial crisis. Yet, I believe the more dire consequence of a widespread sovereign debt crisis, if there is one, will be civil unrest fomented by the deterioration in governments’ critical functions that will result from their weakened financial positions.

    Policy makers will have few options available across the globe to combat this crisis. The rich world’s governments have not been able to contain their debt burdens through budgetary discipline alone. Between Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, they’ve done everything except load the helicopter with dollar bills to finance the bailout with freshly-minted U.S. dollars.

    Policymakers are just as likely to precipitate a financial crisis as any other investor or borrower – they seem to have no prescient knowledge of the dangers associated with over-speculation, lack of solid accounting practices, balancing a budget, etc. How else do we explain their dependence on borrowing? Basic accounting principles – not to mention ideas going back at least to the biblical story of Joseph and the Pharoah – would guide users to monitor income and spending; actuarial analysis directs us to save during times of “feast” and spend the surplus during times of “famine.”

    Yet the United States government and others have already decided to monetize their financial problems at levels not seen before. I shudder to even think what sovereign default would mean to a large-country (G8, for example); however, I deem such a scenario as highly unlikely. A quick look at the table indicates the countries that have never defaulted or even rescheduled a debt payment in their history. The defaults will more likely come from spendthrift small countries, or big states like California.

    The world economy has encountered these debt situations before. But in this environment, a sovereign debt crisis would be unlike anything we have experienced in the past. Not only have financial markets become more globally integrated – with countries borrowing and lending across national borders with ease – but the use of credit derivate products has increased the chance of a default turning into a global catastrophe. These derivatives will have a multiplier effect on every sovereign debt default. We know for a fact that credit default swap contracts are written without being limited to the total value of the underlying assets. Therefore, there could be nine to fifteen times as many credit default contracts to be paid by global banks as there is debt in default.

    Today there are outstanding about $2 trillion of credit default swaps contracts on just fifty of the world’s 200 nations. These contracts could come payable under even the most modest credit event, spreading the damage globally even before debt-service payments are missed. For example, it is now known that AIG’s Financial Products Division wrote contracts that became payable when the market price of debt decreased, regardless of whether or not the borrower had missed a payment. These circumstances did not exist during any previous debt crisis, including the most recent default cycle, the emerging market debt crises of the 1980s and the 1990s. If widespread sovereign defaults happen, we can expect to see something new and potentially much more damaging.

    Susanne Trimbath, Ph.D. is CEO and Chief Economist of STP Advisory Services. Her training in finance and economics began with editing briefing documents for the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. She worked in operations at depository trust and clearing corporations in San Francisco and New York, including Depository Trust Company, a subsidiary of DTCC; formerly, she was a Senior Research Economist studying capital markets at the Milken Institute. Her PhD in economics is from New York University. In addition to teaching economics and finance at New York University and University of Southern California (Marshall School of Business), Trimbath is co-author of Beyond Junk Bonds: Expanding High Yield Markets.

  • Enviro-wimps: L.A.’s Big Green Groups Get Comfy, Leaving the Street Fighting to the Little Guys

    So far, 2009 has not been a banner year for greens in Los Angeles. As the area’s mainstream enviros buddy up with self-described green politicians and deep-pocketed land speculators and unions who have seemingly joined the “sustainability” cause, an odd thing is happening: Environmentalists are turning into servants for more powerful, politically-connected masters.

    On March 3, voters shot down Measure B, a controversial solar energy initiative pushed by Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and endorsed heartily by many prominent environmentalists. The stunning defeat in this liberal city came after critics accused the mayor and his friends of secret deals that rushed the measure onto the ballot as a favor to a city union whose workers be guaranteed almost all of the resulting solar jobs.

    Then, on April 29, U.S. District Judge Christina Snyder placed a temporary injunction on part of the “clean trucks” program at the Port of Los Angeles, whose air pollution is so foul that the EPA warns its emissions cause cancer in suburbs like Cerritos, miles upwind of the port. Judge Snyder rejected efforts by Villaraigosa and the Teamsters to force port truckers to give up their independence and work for companies – spun as a green rule, but ridiculed as a move to pressure the truckers to become Teamsters.

    Today, labor unions, big businesses, and politicians are embracing a green economy to solve their own political and financial woes. And the green agenda – repairing a damaged planet and protecting the local environment in which we live – is at risk of ending up an after-thought.

    “I don’t think the traditional environmental organizations are up to speed,” says Miguel Luna of Urban Semillas, a grassroots environmental group. Alberto B. Mendoza, president of the Coalition for Clean Air, concurs: “If we don’t become more modern in our approach, we’ll become obsolete.”

    In Los Angeles, developers now market, or “green wash,” big new buildings as “sustainable” – meaning healthy for the planet over the long term. The city of Los Angeles requires large buildings to follow “LEED” rules – low flush toilets, on-site renewable energy and the like. But do these projects cause more congested streets filled with idling cars, for example, than the energy they claim to save? In truth, nobody knows. “If you have a project that would normally be four stories high and now it has 20 stories,” says Hollywood activist Bob Blue, there’s a “net increase in power, water, sewer, traffic, pollution – and impact.”

    Yet among many greens, LEED is a closed debate – and represents a profound shift. In the 1990s, greens like Marcia Hanscom, Rex Frankel, Bruce Robertson, Cathy Knight, Sabrina Venskus, and Patricia McPherson took on Los Angeles City Hall, preventing it from wiping out the Ballona Wetlands to erect a vast housing development, Playa Vista. Those greens publicly trounced the pols and their speculator friends over absurd “sustainability” claims — including an effort to count the grassy median strips as “open space.”

    Nowadays, though, Los Angeles enviros are sliding toward the argument that big development is good for the air, land and water – and small bits of green are enough. Environmentalists rarely engage in the city’s intense development hearings. “Maybe one time an environmentalist showed up,” Blue says, “but it was on the behalf of the developer.”

    Within the green movement, Andy Lipkis, the founder of Tree People, and Mark Gold, executive director of Heal the Bay, have reputations as heavyweights with access to Villaraigosa and other politicians. Neither of them, though, wants to jump into rough-and-tumble politics. Lipkis, a likeable and dedicated activist, proudly says he is politically “naive.” Gold, a smart and equally dedicated environmentalist, says he is not “even a little” worried that politicians, labor unions or speculators are hijacking the greens’ issues.

    But today, developers regularly peddle their proposed apartments near L.A. freeways as “sustainable” – claiming they bring workers closer to jobs. The developments are backed by Villaraigosa and the L.A. City Council – to the horror of health experts. Researchers now know, for certain, that children living in these projects are burdened with often lifelong lung disease. “They are putting individuals at risk,” says USC professor Jim Gauderman, whose 2007 study confirmed it.

    Heavily focused on lowering emissions region-wide to fight global warming, greens now praise freeway-adjacent housing projects, utterly forgetting about the young humans involved. Incredibly, city Planning Commissioner Michael Woo, a Villaraigosa-appointee, hasn’t heard a word of opposition from them. Two years after USC’s study, he says, “I’m not sure there’s a political will to stop housing projects at these locations.”

    Grassroots activist Marcia Hanscom, who has never gotten anything by staying quiet, worked for years with other environmentalists to save the Ballona Wetlands. In 2003, that relentless effort paid off – the state bought more than 600 acres to protect and restore. But now, she says, the environmental movement in L.A. has lost its way. It’s time to talk openly about a “mid-course correction.”

    L.A. politicians “sometimes call me as if I’m one of their staff members,” she notes, “and I’m supposed to do what they say. They have their roles mixed up. I’m here to advocate for the environment, not to advocate for them.”

    Pro-green politicians control the office of mayor, almost every Los Angeles City Council seat, every Los Angeles Unified School Board seat, and, for years, have controlled the legislature. Yet the greens seem oddly incapable of asserting power. Mark Gold of Heal the Bay, for example, went out of his way to endorse solar power Measure B, even though Villaraigosa clearly dissed him by dreaming it up utterly without Gold’s input. What L.A. union boss would stand for that?

    Stefanie Taylor, interim managing director interim of the Green L.A. Coalition, a group of over 100 organizations, says, “We have to make sure we’re at the table when these decisions are made about the new green economy.” But right now, says enviro-lobbyist John White, environmentalists are “more like the menu.”

    The stark difference between the daily work of Hanscom, the grassroots environmentalist, and Jonathan Parfrey, the political insider and mainstream environmentalist, is instructive. When the Weekly talked with Hanscom, she was in the middle of an almost surreal battle to keep glaring, Vegas-style digital billboards, made up of 480,000 piercingly bright LED light bulbs, from being allowed adjacent to the blue herons and wildflowers of the Ballona Wetlands.

    Says Hanscom, “The city has the Ballona Wetlands as a part of a billboard ‘sign district?’ It’s outrageous! I even had [developer] lobbyists and lawyers ask me what they were thinking.”

    As Hanscom aimed her firepower at City Hall, environmentalist Parfrey, one of Antonio Villaraigosa’s newest political appointees, was getting ready to visit a Department of Water and Power wind farm way out of town, with the idea of creating “educational tours” for environmentalists. Nothing wrong with that, but it sounded like a public relations campaign for the big utility.

    It’s hard to escape the fact that Los Angeles power brokers regard the environmental movement not as a passionate force they can tap to improve the quality of life and to clean the air, water, and open spaces, but, increasingly, as just another jobs program. And some of the greenest greens have begun to wonder if their own leaders are taking part in the movement’s demise.

    Patrick Range McDonald is a staff writer at L.A. Weekly, and this piece appears in full at www.laweekly.com. Contact Patrick Range McDonald at pmcdonald@laweekly.com.

  • Who Killed California’s Economy?

    Right now California’s economy is moribund, and the prospects for a quick turnaround are not good. Unable to pay its bills, the state is issuing IOUs; its once strong credit rating has collapsed. The state that once boasted the seventh-largest gross domestic product in the world is looking less like a celebrated global innovator and more like a fiscal basket case along the lines of Argentina or Latvia.

    It took some amazing incompetence to toss this best-endowed of places down into the dustbin of history. Yet conventional wisdom views the crisis largely as a legacy of Proposition 13, which in effect capped only taxes.

    This lets too many malefactors off the hook. I covered the Proposition 13 campaign for the Washington Post and examined its aftermath up close. It passed because California was running huge surpluses at the time, even as soaring property taxes were driving people from their homes.

    Admittedly it was a crude instrument, but by limiting those property taxes Proposition 13 managed to save people’s houses. To the surprise of many prognosticators, the state government did not go out of business. It has continued to expand faster than either its income or population. Between 2003 and 2007, spending grew 31%, compared with a 5% population increase. Today the overall tax burden as percent of state income, according to the Tax Foundation, has risen to the sixth-highest in the nation.

    The media and political pundits refuse to see this gap between the state’s budget and its ability to pay as an essential issue. It is. (This is not to say structural reform is not needed. I would support, for example, reforming some of the unintended ill-effects of Proposition 13 that weakened local government and left control of the budget to Sacramento.)

    But the fundamental problem remains. California’s economy–once wondrously diverse with aerospace, high-tech, agriculture and international trade–has run aground. Burdened by taxes and ever-growing regulation, the state is routinely rated by executives as having among the worst business climates in the nation. No surprise, then, that California’s jobs engine has sputtered, and it may be heading toward 15% unemployment.

    So if we are to assign blame, let’s not start with the poor, old anti-tax activist Howard Jarvis (who helped pass Proposition 13 and passed away over 20 years ago), but with the bigger culprits behind California’s fall. Here are five contenders:

    1. Arnold Schwarzenegger

    The Terminator came to power with the support of much of the middle class and business community. But since taking office, he’s resembled not the single-minded character for which he’s famous but rather someone with multiple personalities.

    First, he played the governator, a tough guy ready to blow up the dysfunctional structure of government. He picked a street fight against all the powerful liberal interest groups. But the meathead lacked his hero Ronald Reagan’s communication skills and political focus. Defeated in a series of initiative battles, he was left bleeding the streets by those who he had once labeled “girlie men.”

    Next Arnold quickly discovered his feminine side, becoming a kinder, ultra-green terminator. He waxed poetic about California’s special mission as the earth’s guardian. While the housing bubble was filling the state coffers, he believed the delusions of his chief financial adviser, San Francisco investment banker David Crane, that California represented “ground zero for creative destruction.”

    Yet over the past few years there’s been more destruction than creation. Employment in high-tech fields has stagnated (See related story, “Best Cities For Technology Jobs“) while there have been huge setbacks in the construction, manufacturing, warehousing and agricultural sectors.

    Driven away by strict regulations, businesses take their jobs outside California even in relatively good times. Indeed, according to a recent Milken Institute report, between 2000 and 2007 California lost nearly 400,000 manufacturing jobs. All that time, industrial employment was growing in major competitive rivals like Texas and Arizona.

    With the state reeling, Arnold has decided, once again, to try out a new part. Now he’s posturing as the strong man who stands up to dominant liberal interests. But few on the left, few on the right or few in the middle take him seriously anymore. He may still earn acclaim from Manhattan media offices or Barack Obama’s EPA, but in his home state he looks more an over-sized lame duck, quacking meaninglessly for the cameras.

    2. The Public Sector

    Who needs an economy when you have fat pensions and almost unlimited political power? That’s the mentality of California’s 356,000 workers and their unions, who make up the best-organized, best-funded and most powerful interest group in the state.

    State government continued to expand in size even when anyone with a room-temperature IQ knew California was headed for a massive financial meltdown. Scattered layoffs and the short-term salary givebacks now being considered won’t cure the core problem: an overgenerous retirement system. The unfunded liabilities for these employees’ generous pensions are now estimated at over $200 billion.

    The people who preside over these pensions represent the apex of this labor aristocracy. This year two of the biggest public pension funds, CalPERS and CalSTERS, handed out six-figure bonuses to its top executives even though they had lost workers billions of dollars.

    Almost no one dares suggest trimming the pension funds, particularly Democrats who are often pawns of the public unions. Some reforms on the table, like gutting the two-thirds majority required to pass the budget, would effectively hand these unions keys to the treasury.

    3. The Environment

    Obama holds up California’s environmental policy as a model for the nation. May God protect the rest of the country. California’s environmental activists once did an enviable job protecting our coasts and mountains, expanding public lands and working to improve water and air resources. But now, like sailors who have taken possession of a distillery, they have gotten drunk on power and now rampage through every part of the economy.

    In California today, everyone who makes a buck in the private sector–from developers and manufacturers to energy producers and farmers–cringes in fear of draconian regulations in the name of protecting the environment. The activists don’t much care, since they get their money from trust-funders and their nonprofits. The losers are California’s middle and working classes, the people who drive trucks, who work in factories and warehouses or who have white-collar jobs tied to these industries.

    Historically, many of these environmentally unfriendly jobs have been sources of upward mobility for Latino immigrants. Latinos also make up the vast majority of workers in the rich Central Valley. Large swaths of this area are being de-developed back to desert–due less to a mild drought than to regulations designed to save obscure fish species in the state’s delta. Over 450,000 acres have already been allowed to go fallow. Nearly 30,000 agriculture jobs–held mostly by Latinos–were lost in the month of May alone. Unemployment, which is at a 17% rate across the Valley, reaches upward of 40% in some towns such as Mendota.

    4. The Business Community

    This insanity has been enabled by a lack of strong opposition to it. One potential source–California’s business leadership–has become progressively more feeble over the past generation. Some members of the business elite, like those who work in Hollywood and Silicon Valley, tend to be too self-referential and complacent to care about the bigger issues. Others have either given up or are afraid to oppose the dominant forces of the environmental activists and the public sector.

    Theoretically, according to business consultant Larry Kosmont, business should be able to make a strong case, particularly with the growing Latino caucus in the legislature. “You have all these job losses in Latino districts represented by Latino legislators who don’t realize what they are doing to their own people,” he says. “They have forgotten there’s an economy to think about.”

    But so far California’s business executives have failed to adopt a strategy to make this case to the public. Nor can they count on the largely clueless Republicans for support, since GOP members are often too narrowly identified as anti-tax and anti-immigration zealots to make much of a case with the mainstream voter. “The business community is so afraid they are keeping their heads down,” observes Ross DeVol, director of regional economics at the Milken Institute. “I feel they if they keep this up much longer, they won’t have heads.”

    5. Californians

    At some point Californians–the ones paying the bills and getting little in return–need to rouse themselves. The problem could be demographic. Over the past few years much of our middle class has fled the state, including a growing number to “dust bowl” states like Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas from which so many Californians trace their roots.

    The last hope lies with those of us still enamored with California. We have allowed ourselves to be ruled by a motley alliance of self-righteous zealots, fools and cowards; now we must do something. Some think the solution is reining in citizens’ power by using the jury pool to staff a state convention, as proposed by the Bay Area Council, or finding ways to undermine the initiative system, which would remove critical checks on legislative power.

    We should, however, be very cautious about handing more power to the state’s leaders. With our acquiescence, they have led this most blessed state toward utter ruin. Structural reforms alone, however necessary, won’t turn around the economy’s fundamental problems and help California reclaim its role as a productive driver of the American dream.

    This article originally appeared at Forbes.

    Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography.com and is a presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His next book, The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, will be published by Penguin early next year.

  • Go to Oklahoma, Young Man

    One of the great migrations of Americans was from Dust Bowl Oklahoma to California during the Great Depression. People came from all over the parched plains to California; South Dakotans, Nebraskans, Oklahomans and others. But only one group had a name. No one called them Dakoties, nor Nebies, but they did call them “Okies.” Their legacy was spread by John Steinbeck’s Grapes of Wrath. Indeed, so many came to California that it enacted an “anti-Okie” law, which was duly set aside by the United States Supreme Court (Edwards v. the People of California).

    How things change. A Sacramento Bee article reports on the migration of Californians to, of all places Oklahoma and nearby states. For decades, Oklahoma has been the ultimate of “flyover country,” one of the last places people on the coast would think of moving to. Yet, as I pointed out in 2005, Oklahoma has become more competitive, at least partially because its advantages in housing costs and hassle free commuting. Moreover, it’s more than Californians. Seattle, which lost home-grown Boeing to Chicago some years ago, lost its NBA “Supersonics” to Oklahoma City last year. Having spent most of my life on the coast, I never would have imagined that Oklahoma City would become competitive with California and Seattle. But it has.

  • Lessons from the Left: When Radicals Rule – For Thirty Years

    Contrary to popular notions held even here in southern California, Santa Monica was never really a beach town or bedroom community. It was a blue-collar industrial town, home to the famed Douglas Aircraft from before World War II until the 1970s.

    When I first lived there in the early ’70s, the city was pretty dilapidated, decaying and declining (except for the attractive neighborhoods of large expensive homes in the city’s northern sections). I remember a lot of retirees, students, and like me and my wife, renters of small apartments in old buildings. The tiredness of the place was incongruous with its great location and weather. But then the first of several spectacular rises in real estate values took off. Rents started rising precipitously as well, and in a city where 80% of residents were renters, a political earthquake shook the establishment: in 1979 voters passed rent control and soon after that elected a slate of politicians backed by the SMRR – Santa Monicans for Renter Rights – to a majority on the city council. It has now been 30 years that the city of Santa Monica has been dominated by the politics and politicians of SMRR. What have they wrought?

    There have been some momentous battles. Property owners, denied the full use and fair value of their property, came to calling the place “the People’s Republic of Santa Monica.” As economists would predict, rent control resulted in the loss of rental units (and therefore the number of renters), slowed construction of new units, led to the deterioration of existing units as landlords deferred maintenance, decreased the city’s diversity, and increased its exclusivity. These were all opposite effects the original intentions of the new radical rulers.

    But rent control was not the only “social justice” concern on the SMRR agenda; “homeless friendly” policies led to an explosion of homeless people in the city, which comedian Harry Shearer reminds the nation every week on his NPR radio show is “The Home of the Homeless.”

    Other battles fought over the years have involved traffic issues, a living wage ordinance, preferential parking zones, McMansions, development and redevelopment, planning, zoning, schools, affordable housing requirements, and the height of fences and hedges – a thousand things big and small one would expect in a city of 85,000 residents and an annual budget of over $500 million. At some point in the 1980s, the SMRR-dominated City Council, once anti-development, realized that development could generate millions of dollars for city government necessary for funding its political agenda. Massive rezoning and redevelopment were approved.

    One might think that inconsistent policies often causing opposite effect of their intentions would have weakened the left. But two large factors have come into play over time. First, SMRR does not rule without consent and consensus – many, perhaps more than half, of home owners have supported the progressive politics and policies of the SMRR-controlled city council. Secondly, despite the concerns of some property owners and economists, Santa Monica has prospered. Despite powerful regulation, hotels, arts, jobs, and restaurants continue to flow into the city. Opponents on both sides concede most of the population is content and satisfied with the status quo.

    This has been accomplished with pragmatism and a willingness to change policies that were not working. The worst effects of rent control are in the past due to a state law that allowed vacancy decontrol. Same with homelessness: residents wanted to be “progressive” but realized that being kind to the homeless only increased their numbers. The city still overdoes it on permits, regulations, etc., but homeowners and business want to be “progressive,” so they go along with it (and they like regulation when it benefits their interests).

    The city decided to make itself a tourist destination, and it is, but when it looked like nothing but hotels would be built, voters passed a proposition to halt hotel development. On the other hand, last November voters defeated Prop T, which would have limited most commercial development in the city to 75,000 square feet a year for the next 15 years.

    Santa Monica Place, a huge indoor shopping mall, outlived its usefulness, so now it’s being rebuilt as an outdoor mixed-use development. A living wage law was passed by the City Council, and then repealed by voters.

    SMRR is a political machine that has dominated the city for 30 years, using money, favors, jobs for the connected (and bupkis for those not) to build voting blocs for power and control. It inserts its people onto all the boards and commissions with input into policymaking. Their power ultimately comes from persuading renters, who are still a big majority of the city’s inhabitants, that they need SMRR for protection from “greedy landlords.”

    So SMRR dominates political life in the city of Santa Monica, but it does so with the consent of many homeowners, property and business owners, as well as renters. Santa Monica is green, PC, insufferably “tolerant,” self-satisfied, etc., but still doing well for itself. Taxes, rules, regulations and restrictions are onerous, but people and businesses still want to be there.

    I have lived through and observed the political battles of the last 30 years as a renter, homeowner and briefly as a landlord (never again, thanks). The transformation of Santa Monica reflects an interesting story: left-leaning activists who realize they can bend the establishment by controlling it from the inside. They then become the new establishment, but like in today’s left-leaning academia, work to make sure they themselves are never similarly deposed. And yes, I wonder if it holds lessons for the nation, with President Obama and the Democrats now in control and looking to implement a left-leaning agenda.

    What might those lessons be? One, particularly difficult for conservatives to accept, is that the time-tested machinations of leftist political machines sometimes work. They work for the powerful and the connected (who get to have their cake and eat it too: financial reward with a patina of progressivism), and they are perceived to work for the powerless and unconnected (however deleterious in reality). And that the left can come to power and rule with the consent of the governed, if it doesn’t “push the envelope” beyond a certain point, changes course when warranted, rewards cronies and allies, co-opts opponents where possible (and freezes them out where not). It worked for Tammany Hall, it has worked for Mayor Daley, and it seems to be working for Obama. Saul Alinsky would be proud of his protégé.

    Perhaps at the heart of its success is that like all successful political machines, SMRR “fixes potholes.” Frank Gruber, who writes a weekly column about life and politics in Santa Monica for The Lookout News, calls this “squeaky wheel government.” SMRR council members try to turn every complaining resident – and there are many – into happy SMRR voters. Whatever the aims of SMRR, they have created a popular government.

    Gruber, who considers himself an “old leftie” of the “jobs, housing, education, environment” school, takes SMRR to task for putting the needs of comfortable voters (traffic, for instance) ahead of the needs of the larger community (such as jobs for minority youth). (A collection of Gruber’s columns has recently been published in a book called, fittingly, Urban Worrier: Making Politics Personal.)

    In the 2008 elections, in which Santa Monicans voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama, all four incumbents of the City Council won easily. SMRR seems as entrenched as always. In at least this paradisiacal portion of Southern California, left-wing government appears to be working – even if sometimes at odds with its own old radical objectives.

    Dr. Roger Selbert is a trend analyst, researcher, writer and speaker. Growth Strategies is his newsletter on economic, social and demographic trends; IntegratedRetailing.com is his web site on retail trends. Roger is US economic analyst for the Institute for Business Cycle Analysis and its US Consumer Demand Index, a monthly survey of American households’ buying intentions.

  • Balancing the California Budget

    The battle to find ways to close California’s gaping $24 billion budget shortfall continues, with Governor Schwarzenegger calling for deep cuts and reorganization throughout state government. Last week, making a “rare speech to a joint session of the Legislature,” Gov. Schwarzenegger argued that the state has “run out of time,” and faces a situation where “Our wallet is empty, our bank is closed, and our credit is dried up”.

    The challenges facing California’s policy makers in balancing the budget can be examined by checking out the Los Angeles Times’ “Interactive California Budget Balancer”. While the state has many different options available to it, making cuts to potentially popular programs will only serve to irritate interest groups which argue for the efficacy and essential nature of their favored programs. Couple this reluctance to make cuts with popular resistance to tax increases, recently seen when voters rejected a set of measures on May 19, and one can better understand the true magnitude of the budget impasse facing the state.

  • Salinas and Self-Governance

    “Man is the only kind of varmint who sets his own trap, baits it, then steps in it.” — John Steinbeck

    Though probably not intended as a political commentary, Steinbeck’s utterance perfectly describes the current California budget crisis. And, given the revenue and service delivery relationship between cities and the state, traps can be set and baited in Sacramento, leaving mayors, city councils and city managers to step in them.

    This is what is happening today in Steinbeck’s hometown of Salinas (his childhood home is pictured), where the city faces a structural deficit of nearly $20 million, out of a $97 million general budget. Given the dramatic scope of the decisions it faces, the city government is taking a unique approach to finding solutions: gathering residents together in a series of facilitated discussions about the budget crisis. I attended one of these workshops in early April, where I watched around a hundred Salinas residents participate in a three-hour dialogue, and learned anew the challenges to self-governance, and its power.

    The first hurdle attendees encountered was informational. From the size of the deficit, to utility users’ tax revenues, to what portion of the budget is spent on cops versus parks, it was evident that most attendees had little understanding about how their city government actually functions. This is not to cast aspersions on Salinas: lack of basic civic knowledge, especially of local government, is a national tragedy, contributing to uninformed discussions that easily turn partisan. Several participants came to the workshop with single-issue views about the police chief’s salary, or the amount spent on maintenance, but when faced with the full budget picture, and other residents with contrary opinions, they soon moderated their judgments.

    Participants were forced to wrestle with the same difficult trade-offs as their elected representatives, and in so doing, learned that governing – even at the local level – is a complex process of moving interlocking levers. Using a program template developed by San Diego’s Viewpoint Learning, participants were presented with a set of three “visions” of Salinas, each with related service and revenue frameworks. A budget cut in a certain area has specific ramifications, as do tax and fee increases, but rarely do any of us participate in conversations where we have to confront such decisions. As Mayor of Salinas Dennis Donohue told me, “The gap between service expectations by the public and the public sector’s inability to deliver those services needs to be bridged.” This can only happen effectively when the public both understands and legitimately weighs its options.

    Finally, as the dialogues reached the final hour, I began to sense a change in the attitude of those hundred or so Salinans gathered in a community college cafeteria. What began as a crash course in local government civics, and moved to the plate-balancing act that is a budget process, concluded with participants taking ownership of their city. A debate at one table about a sales tax increase moved into a discussion of, “What can we do to keep our young people from moving out of Salinas after High School?” When presented to the full group, this thought was echoed, with others extolling “What it is that’s great about Salinas,” wondering how this could be communicated, and what role they might play in improving their community.

    Salinas is one of several cities around California, and around the country, employing this “participatory budgeting” process in response to painful fiscal decisions. Even cities as large as Philadelphia, with its “Tight Times, Tough Choices” project, involved over 4,000 residents in budget deliberations. Each has different elements depending on the size of the city and scope of the budget challenge, but those with the greatest impact do the following: accurately inform the public, engage them in a conversation that involves having to make legitimate trade-offs, and create a space in which residents can not only offer informed opinions, but actually participate in the building of their city.

    It seems that budget deficits are yielding surpluses in local involvement.

    Pete Peterson is Executive Director of Common Sense California, a multi-partisan non-profit organization that supports civic participation around California. He also lectures on civic engagement at Pepperdine’s School of Public Policy.

  • San Jose, California: Bustling Metropolis or Bedroom Community?

    Dionne Warwick posed the question more than 40 years ago, yet most Americans still don’t know ‘The way to San Jose’. Possessing neither the international cachet of San Francisco nor the notoriety of Oakland, San Jose continues to fly under the national radar in comparison to its Bay Area compatriots. Even with its self-proclaimed status as the ‘Heart of Silicon Valley’, many would be hard pressed to locate San Jose on a map of California.

    More well-known American cities may try to gain population by branding themselves as interesting places, but San Jose does not struggle to attract newcomers. Sprawling over 178 square miles, San Jose sits at the southern end of the San Francisco Bay. This year the city exceeded the 1 million population mark for the first time.

    So what makes this city, the 10th-largest in the United States, appealing? Unlike its precious neighbor 50 miles to the north, San Francisco, people move to San Jose primarily for jobs – especially those related to the coveted technology sector. Whereas San Francisco balances its role as playground for the independently wealthy and welfare state for the lumpenproletariat, San Jose remains favored among families and those looking for a safe environment in which to raise children – not to mention, the weather is better.

    San Jose does not stimulate a sense of urban exaltation. Aside from a commercial downtown core with a collection of mediocre high-rises (limited in height due to do downtown’s adjacency to the San Jose Airport), the city is unapologetically suburban in a character.

    San Jose’s pattern of development can be traced back to its origins as an agricultural community supporting early Spanish settlers who chose to settle in the fertile Santa Clara Valley. It remained a modest-size agrarian community until the end of World War II when it underwent a period of rapid expansion-not unlike that of Los Angeles to the south. During the 1950s, with the emergence of semiconductor technology derived from silicon, San Jose and the greater Santa Clara Valley exploded into a center for the evolution of computer technology.

    Today, San Jose can best be understood by its ambivalent relationship with neighboring Silicon Valley cities. Mid-size suburbs such as Cupertino, Sunnyvale, Mountain View and Palo Alto, all located west/northwest of San Jose as one travels up the peninsula towards San Francisco, are very distinct and separate entities. Home to some of Silicon Valley’s heaviest hitters (Cupertino has Apple, Sunnyvale has Yahoo!, Mountain View has Google, Palo Alto has Hewlett-Packard, Facebook and Stanford University), these cities largely define the technology-focused region. To be sure, San Jose’s has its share of big players, including eBay and Adobe as well as the ‘Innovation Triangle’, an industrial area of north San Jose, home to the headquarters of large companies like Cisco Systems and Cypress Semiconductor.

    Yet, despite the presence of these firms, San Jose has become ever more a residential community, with among the worst jobs to housing balances in the region. Furthermore, a whopping 59% of the city’s developed land constitutes residential use – 78% of that being single-family detached housing. In this sense, despite being the largest city, San Jose essentially serves as a ‘bedroom community’ for the rest of Silicon Valley.

    This has been a burden for the city, which, unlike its neighbors, lacks enough large information technology companies to help fill their tax coffers. In contrast job rich ‘green’ cities like Palo Alto have remained staunchly ‘anti-growth’ regarding residential development and consequently have very high housing prices.

    This pattern poses fiscal problems for San Jose. City officials have long been aware of the need to stimulate economic development instead of continuing to lose out to its neighbors but the city seems determined to increase further its role as dormitory for its neighbors. Indeed, amazingly the city’s development agenda has in recent years shifted to a relentless focus on high-density, multi-family residential in the downtown core and along transit corridors. In 2007, 79% of all new housing built in San Jose was multi-family – a staggering deviation from its history of low density development.

    Though well-intentioned, the slant towards densification has yielded a glut of empty condo units throughout the city. Those that have purchased units in new developments often find themselves with underwater mortgages. During a recent visit to one the flashy new downtown condo buildings, The 88, I entered a desolate sales office and was greeted by a skittish sales agent. When asked how sales were, my question was deferred without a direct answer in an act of not-so-quiet desperation.

    Although it’s clear most people in San Jose prefer lower density living, the city government continues hedging tax dollars against a future in which newcomers will want to live in a high-density setting. Outside of downtown, low to mid-rise multi-family housing has been built along the city’s light-rail lines in what are conceived to be ‘transit villages’. The popularity for such a lifestyle is questionable given the high price point and unreasonable HOA dues of these condo units, particularly when single-family detached houses can be purchased at comparable prices.

    Despite these issues, San Jose seems hell-bent on its path towards densification. The city has major plans to develop the area around its Diridon Train Station, just west of downtown, as California High-Speed Rail and BART are projected to make their way to San Jose. Furthermore, the city government is counting on the Oakland A’s baseball team making a move to San Jose.

    From the Champs-Élysées to Tiananmen Square, grand urban visions are what have defined cities historically. As a product of the Silicon Valley ethos as well as an observer of planning trends, I would argue that this is no longer valid – especially for any city with the hopes of a prosperous future. Rather, in democratic societies, it will be the idiosyncrasies of individual actors and the prospect of upward mobility that will define a sense of place.

    Obsessed with density and urban form, planners don’t seem to grasp the chicken and egg conundrum – the notion that lifestyle amenities follow on the heels of economic opportunity. San Jose needs to cast its future on nurturing its entrepreneurs instead of trying to become something it is not yet ready to become.

    Adam Nathaniel Mayer is a native of the San Francisco Bay Area. Raised in the town of Los Gatos, on the edge of Silicon Valley, Adam developed a keen interest in the importance of place within the framework of a highly globalized economy. He currently lives in San Francisco where he works in the architecture profession.

  • Can California Make A Comeback?

    These are times that thrill some easterners’ souls. However bad things might be on Wall Street or Beacon Hill, there’s nothing more pleasing to Atlantic America than the whiff of devastation on the other coast.

    And to be sure, you can make a strong case that the California dream is all but dead. The state is effectively bankrupt, its political leadership discredited and the economy, with some exceptions, doing considerably worse than most anyplace outside Michigan. By next year, suggests forecaster Bill Watkins, unemployment could nudge up towards an almost Depression-like 15%.

    Despite all this, I am not ready to write off the Golden State. For one thing, I’ve seen this movie before. The first time was in the mid 1970s. The end of the Vietnam War devastated the state’s then powerful defense industry, leaving large swaths of unemployment and generating the first talk about the state’s long-term decline.

    An even scarier remake came out in the 1990s. Everything was going wrong, from the collapse of the Soviet Union and the unexpected deflating of Japan to a nearly Pharaonic set of plagues, ranging from earthquakes and fires to the awful Los Angeles riots of 1992.

    Yet each time California came roaring back, having reformed itself and discovered new ways to create wealth. In the wake of the early ’70s decline came the first full flowering of Silicon Valley as well as other tech regions, from the west San Fernando Valley to Orange and San Diego counties. Much of the spark for this explosion of growth came from those formerly employed in the defense and space sectors.

    The ’90s recovery was even more remarkable. Amazingly, the politicians actually were part of the solution. Aware the state’s economy was crashing, the state’s top pols–Assembly Speaker Willie Brown, Sen. John Vasconcellos, Gov. Pete Wilson–made a concerted effort to reform the state’s regulatory regime and otherwise welcomed businesses.

    The private sector responded. High-tech, Hollywood, international trade, fashion, agriculture and a growing immigrant entrepreneurial culture all generated jobs and restored the state’s faded luster.

    These sectors still exist and still excel even under difficult conditions. The problem this time is that the political class seems clueless how to meet the challenge.

    Politics have not always been a curse to California. In the 1950s and 1960s, the Golden State’s growth stemmed in large part from what historian Kevin Starr describes as “a sense of mission” on the part of leaders in both parties. Starr chronicles this period in his forthcoming book, Golden Dreams: California in an Age of Abundance, 1950-1963.

    Under figures like Earl Warren, Goodwin Knight and Pat Brown, Starr notes, California “assembled the infrastructure for a great commonwealth.” Their legacy–the great University system, the California Water Project, the freeways and state park system–still undergirds what’s left of the state economy.

    Perhaps the best thing about these investments was that they helped the middle class. Sure, nasty growers, missile makers and rapacious developers all made out like bandits–which is why many of them also backed Pat Brown. But the ’50s and ’60s also ushered in a remarkable period of widespread prosperity.

    Millions of working- and middle-class people gained good-paying jobs, and could send their children to what was widely seen as the world’s best public university system. People who grew up in New York tenements or dusty Midwest farm towns now could enjoy a suburban lifestyle complete with single-family homes, cars, swimming pools and drive-through hamburger stands.

    “This was an epic success story for the middle class,” historian Starr notes. It’s one reason why, when people ask me about my politics, I proudly identify myself as a Pat Brown Democrat.

    That’s why California’s current decline is so bothersome. A state that once was home to a huge aspirational middle class has become increasingly bifurcated between a sizable overclass, clustered largely near the coast, and a growing poverty population.

    Over the past 40 years California’s official poverty rate grew from 9% to nearly 13% in 2007, before the recession. Three of its counties–Monterey, San Francisco and Los Angeles–boast large populations of the über rich but, adjusted for cost of living, also suffer some of the highest percentages of impoverished households in the nation.

    Most worrisome has been the decline of the middle–the increasingly diverse ranks of homeowners, small business people and professionals. The middle has been heading out of state for much of the past decade. Politically, they have proven no match for the power of the wealthy trustfunders of the left, the powerful public employee union as well as a small, but determined right wing.

    The good news is that the middle class shows signs of stirring. The nearly two-to-one rejection of the governor’s budget compromise reflected a groundswell of anger toward both the Terminator and his allies in the legislature.

    Simply put, California voters sense we need something more than an artful quick fix built to please the various Sacramento interest groups. Required now is a more sweeping revolutionary change that takes power away from the state’s most powerful lobby, the public employees, whose one desired reform would be ending the two-thirds rule for approval of new taxes and budgets.

    Middle-class Californians are asking, with justification, why we should be increasing taxes–we’re ranked sixth-highest in the nationto pay for gold-plated state employee pensions as well as an ever-expanding social welfare program. Although state spending has grown at an adjusted 26% per capita over the past 10 years, it is hard to discern any improvement in roads, schools or much of anything else.

    As an opening gambit, the right’s solution–strict limits on state spending–makes perfect sense. However, long-lasting reform needs to be about more than preserving property and low taxes. To appeal to the state’s increasingly minority population, as well as the younger generation, a reform movement also has to be about economic growth and jobs.

    Not surprisingly, local leaders of the “tea party” movement gained some profile from last week’s vote. Yet the right, which has exhibited strong nativist tendencies, is not likely to win over an increasingly diverse state.

    In my mind, California’s revival depends on three key things. First, the lobbyist-dominated Sacramento cabal needs to be shattered, perhaps turning the legislature into a part-time body, as proposed by one group. Perhaps the cleverest plan has come from Robert Hertzberg, a former Speaker of the Assembly who heads up the reformist California Forward group.

    Hertzberg proposes a radical decentralization of power to the state’s various regions, as well as cities and even boroughs in urban areas like Los Angeles. This would break the power of the Sacramento system by devolving tax and spending authority to local governments.

    Secondly, California needs to develop a long-term economic growth strategy. Over the past decade, California’s growth has become ever more bubblicious, dependent first on the dot-com bubble and then one in housing. The basic economy–manufacturing, business services, agriculture, energy–has been either ignored or overly regulated. Not surprisingly, we could see 20% unemployment, or worse, in places like Salinas and Fresno by next year.

    Third, both political reform and an economic strategy aimed at restoring upward mobility depends on a revival of middle-class politics in this state. It would include building an alliance between the more reasoned tea partiers and saner elements of the progressive community.

    The new alliance would not be red or blue, liberal or conservative, but would represent what historian Starr calls “the party of California.” At last there could be a political home for Californians who are angry as hell but still not yet ready to give up on the most intriguing, attractive and potentially productive of all the states.

    This article originally appeared at Forbes.

    Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography.com and is a presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History and is finishing a book on the American future.