Tag: Chicago

  • Chicago Condo Market Inertia

    New home sales went down by a whopping 73 percent in the Windy City during the first six months of this year. But developers, anticipating high demand – especially for the condo market – have committed to keep building them. From the article in Crain’s Chicago:

    “Developers are building at a record pace, with 9,528 units scheduled to be finished by the end of next year, Appraisal Research says. Nearly 33% of those remain unsold, a high percentage but slightly better than the first quarter’s 35%.”

  • New York’s loss is Chicago’s Gain?

    The Chicago Tribune reported recently on the state of the finance industry in the Chicago area. Reports indicate smaller, more nimble finance companies in Chicago are tapping an exodus of traders, bankers and investment managers:

    Employment in the securities and commodity industries has held steady in the Windy City, showing an unusual resilience while marquee names such as Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers hemorrhage billions of dollars in connection with subprime mortgages. Members of the Chicago trading community say the transparency and technology provided by the futures and options exchanges has insulated them from losses the International Monetary Fund estimates will total $1 trillion.

    Looking at the historical numbers, Chicago passed NYC in banking employment in 2001, but that industry is in slow decline in Chicago after peaking in late 2006. Securities jobs in Chicago have remained steady, while this sector in New York City began its sharp decline in September 2007. I’d say any evidence of Chicago growth based on New York’s finance job loss is still anecdotal. (Click the chart for a bigger image.)

    Chicago Trib link via Steve Bartin.

  • Chicago Students’ Greatest Fear: Getting Shot

    With 36 Chicago Public School children murdered in the last 12 months, the Chicago Sun-Times reports that getting shot has become the number one fear of children in the city’s violent neighborhoods.

    The fear seems most pervasive among fifth to eighth graders.

  • Windy City Triumphalism at Odds with Souring Economy

    Mayor Daley said this week that the economy in Chicago is the worst that he’s seen since becoming mayor.

    You’d never guess this judging by the article about “demographic inversion” published in the New Republic by Alan Ehrenhalt . The author prints a lot of anecdotal evidence about on-going gentrification he witnesses in his hometown but unfortunately offers precious few statistics about job growth.

    The vacancy rate for industrial real estate in the Chicago area recently climbed to its highest level in 14 years. The governor also called violence in the city “out of control.”

  • The Cost of Chicago Jobs

    In Chicago’s recent history, when you think of beers, Jesse Jackson and his sons Yusaf and Jonathan come to mind. Yusaf and Jonathan Jackson were fortunate enough to receive a coveted Anheuser-Busch distributorship on the north side of Chicago. Just the other day, MillerCoors announced it would move its corporate headquarters to downtown Chicago by the summer or fall of 2009. The cost was high. The City of Chicago and the State of Illinois will pay $20 million to help bring 300 to 400 jobs to Chicago.

    Chicago was in competition with Dallas for MillerCoors. Even though Dallas lost the MillerCoors battle to Chicago, Texas as of late has been the big winner in landing corporate headquarters. In April of 2008,Texas became the number one state for headquarters of the 500 largest corporate headquarters compiled by Fortune Magazine. As the Houston Chronicle reported, “Texas now boasts 58 headquarters, three more than New York, the previous No. 1, and California, with 52. The Houston area has 26 of the companies.”

    In the same week as the MillerCoors announcement, some rather grim news for Chicago and Illinois was released. The Illinois Department of Employment and Security reported that the “Illinois unemployment rate for June was 6.8 percent, climbing 0.4 percent points from May. The number of unemployed increased for the second month in a row, rising by 26,900 to 463,900 unemployed individuals, and reaching it highest level since June 1993.” To put things in perspective, last month, while the Illinois unemployment rate was 6.8 percent, the national unemployment rate was 5.5.

    While Illinois and Chicago give MillerCoors the $20 million welcome, America’s largest retailer is an object of derision in Chicago. Wal-Mart was allowed to open its first store in Chicago’s city limits after a protracted fight in the City Council. The pro-union Chicago Aldermen have prevented any more Wal-Marts in Chicago. The thousands of jobs Wal-Mart could have provided Chicago’s poor and working class will not happen.

    The taxpayers are allowed to subsidize MillerCoors with $20 million (for 400 jobs) in Chicago, but having several Wal-Marts employing thousands of job seekers is not to be in Chicago. Instead of challenging Chicago’s City Council to open up the city to an aggressive anti-union company, Mayor Daley wants organized labor peace. The organized labor calm is necessary to bring the Olympics to Chicago in 2016. Chicago didn’t have much domestic competition from other U.S. cities bidding on the Olympics because it’s a money loser for taxpayers. Mayor Daley, the unions, and businesses with heavy clout view the Olympics as a great heist with high tax tolerant Chicago taxpayers left with the tab.

    The last several decades, Illinois has been a sub-standard performer in jobs and population growth. In December 2007, Crain’s Chicago Business described the Illinois job situation:

    “Financial pressures on Illinois residents are deepening, as the state continues to lose economic ground compared to the nation and its own past.

    That’s the gloomy bottom line on a comprehensive study of the state’s economy being released this morning by the Chicago-based Center for Tax and Budget Accountability and the two research units of Northern Illinois University at DeKalb.

    The study finds that, though the rate of decline has somewhat slowed, Illinois continues to lose good-paying manufacturing jobs to service-industry posts that tend to pay less.

    As a result, most Illinois workers actually earned less in 2007 than they did in 2000, adjusted for inflation, with median household income dropping from $54,900 in 1999-2000 to $49,328 today.”

    An important part of the erosion of jobs-based earnings in the state is due to the loss of manufacturing jobs. Howard Wial and Alec Friedhoff did a study for the Brookings Institute in 2005 on manufacturing jobs lost in the Great Lakes Region from 1995-2005. The greater Chicago area was one of the leaders in manufacturing jobs lost. Wial and Friedhoff report:

    “Total employment in metropolitan Chicago grew moderately before the 2001 recession, declined from 2000 through 2003 and rose again in 2004 and 2005. The region gained 346,000 jobs (an 8.2 percent increase) from 1995 through 2000. Despite recent gains, total employment fell total employment fell by 109,900 (2.4 percent) from 2000 through 2005. Over the entire period 1995-2005,the region gained 236,100 jobs (5.6 percent), well below the national growth rate.

    Manufacturing employment declined almost continuously since 1995,with the largest annual losses occurring in 2001 and 2002. The region lost 35,700 manufacturing jobs (a decline of percent) from 1995 through 2000 and another 141,300 (22.2 percent) from 2000 through 2005. The result was a loss of 177,000 manufacturing jobs (a 26.3 percent decline) over the entire decade, the largest total loss of all regions in this analysis.”

    The Chicago Tribune had an interesting fact in their article about MillerCoors coming to Cook County. The Tribune reports that the county’s job growth for “management of companies” jobs is nowhere near that of adjacent counties. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Tribune reports: “between 2001 and 2006, they grew 7 percent in Cook County, 33 percent in DuPage County and 83 percent in Lake County.”

    In conclusion, Chicago needs all the jobs it can get. Cutting regulations and eliminating union mandates would be lot cheaper and more effective for attracting jobs then subsidizing a major corporation with $20 million dollars from taxpayers. The MillerCoors deal is indicative of the costs Chicago taxpayers endure. It’s ironic though, MillerCoors will be located in downtown Chicago (which is a special taxing district that has an 11.25 percent retail sales tax, the highest in America). The tax proceeds from the highest retail sales tax is meant to subsidize economic development in downtown Chicago. So, Chicago may lose retail jobs downtown.

    Steve Bartin is a resident of Cook County and native who blogs regularly about urban affairs at http://nalert.blogspot.com. He works in Internet sales.

  • Commuting Patterns in Chicago

    You may have read our recent commuting case study of the Los Angeles region written by Ali Modarres. Ali put together some detailed commuting pattern maps of the area.

    Here’s another similar commuting map of the Chicago area. It’s interesting to note the major difference in commute times of neighborhoods often in close proximity. Obviously, distance to jobs matters, but so does the occupational make-up of the neighborhood.

  • Should Obama Trade Chicago for Phoenix?

    Invoking Studs Terkel, Oprah Winfrey, and Barry Goldwater, Tristam Hunt of the Times Online suggests that Obama needs to trade in Chicago’s “progressive European tradition” for the “Wild West, libertarian ethos” of Phoenix. What he’s really suggesting is that Obama needs to nail down the sprawling periphery to win it:

    For all his love of metropolitan, liberal Chicago, it is grumpy old John McCain’s Phoenix that represents the psephological future. And sooner or later, Mr. Obama will have to join those tens of thousands of his Illinois compatriots swapping the icy winds of downtown Chicago for the sprawling embrace of metropolitan Phoenix

    For McCain, Patrick Ottenhoff lists his top 5 places McCain should go, leading with the Ohio River Valley tour, to focus on the economically depressed areas where Obama fared poorly vs. Clinton.

  • Mapping Power Brokers at Muckety.com

    When most of us think “social networking” the first thing that comes to mind are personal sites like Facebook or LinkedIn. Recognizing the power of personal connection, Muckety.com is a news site that works in a fantastic interactive social network map connecting muckety-mucks in each news story.

    Now that Obama has won the Democratic nomination, Muckety is focusing on Chicago, starting with a piece detailing the city’s 100 most networked people. Carol Eisenberg writes:

    George W. Bush saw the world through the prism of the Texas oilmen whose livelihood and passions he shared.

    When he became president, he chose Houston oil executives and Austin honchos for top posts in his administration – with huge implications for national policy. If Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is elected, he would in all likelihood draw heavily from his home base in Chicago – to very different effect.

    Keep an eye on Muckety’s ongoing Chicago coverage.

  • Perspective on Chicago: From City of Big Shoulders to Entertainment Machine?

    After decades of living in the shadows not only of New York, but such emergent regions as Los Angeles, the San Francisco Bay Area, Atlanta, Houston and Dallas, Chicago suddenly seems to be on a roll. It may be very close to placing its “favorite son” – Senator Barack Obama – as our next President, with all the enormous increase in prestige and patronage that entails. It could win the 2016 Olympics. And recently, Fast Company, the trendoid business magazine for the perennially hip and cool, named it America’s “city of the year.

    How you view Chicago’s rise has much to do with who you are. For many working and middle class Chicagoans, the changes in recent years have been far from favorable, as our blogger Steve Bartin points out. Job growth has been slow, the schools have emptied out as many families have moved to the suburbs. But for those at the apex of society – notably condo developers, well-connected politicos, the cultural elite and a rising African-American upper class – this renewed Chicago represents truly a great city of opportunity.

    This shift in identity is quite a change for what was once seen as “the city of big shoulders.” Unlike patrician Boston or mercantile cosmopolitan New York, Chicago can be seen as the quintessential American city – a bit rough at the edges, productive and unpretentious. It emerged the biggest and fastest growing of the Midwestern boomtowns of the late 1800s. A settlement of barely 350 in 1835, it mushroomed to 100,000 at the time of Abraham Lincoln’s election in 1860, and housed over a million forty years later.

    Chicago was elemental – its industry bigger, its politicians more corrupt, its criminals seemingly more lethal and better organized. So, too were its business leaders. Chicago, one speculator wrote following the panic of 1837, “resounded with the groans of ruined men and the sobs of defrauded women who entrusted all to greedy speculators.” Undaunted, the city’s elites proved relentless in their ambition, lobbying Washington and Wall Street for dominant position in the burgeoning east-west trade. St. Louis businesspeople, noted the Chicago Tribune in 1868, “wore their pantaloons out sitting and waiting for trade to come to them” while Chicago’s “wore their shoes out running after it.”

    Our focus on Chicago shows that this spirit of opportunistic boosterism has not been lost. The excellent piece by Carol Eisenberg on Muckety.com – part of this package – reveals the remarkable unanimity among the city’s business, political and cultural elite under the regime of the second Mayor Richard Daley. The impressive recovery of the city’s central core, and surrounding waves of gentrification, have turned the city into a favorite role model for younger cities from Los Angeles to Miami looking to prove their urban bona fides.

    This marks a dramatic change in popular perceptions of Chicago. A Swedish visitor in 1850, described it as “one of the most miserable and ugly cities” in America. Later, it was known as an industrial powerhouse; when Berlin in the early 1870s developed as a major manufacturing center, it was christened “Chicago on the Spree.” Yet by then Chicago was also developing a softer side: it was home to the reform efforts of Jane Addams, whose focus on rough ghetto neighborhoods inspired others around the country. Rebuilding after the devastating fire of 1871, the city also embarked on an ambitious program of civic improvement, constructing over the next three decades a major library system, a new home for the Arts Institute, the Field Columbian Museum and a large expansion of the University of Chicago.

    It is this more gilded, elegant Chicago – home of arguably the nation’s and even the world’s greatest collection of 20th Century high-rise structures – that foreshadows the current city. The success of Millennium Park, the powerful if now fading condo boom, the city’s newfound celebratory culture (think Oprah Winfrey and Barack Obama), its growth in fine restaurants, nightclubs and other entertainments has persuaded some observers like the University of Chicago’s Terry Nichols Clark to declare that Chicago is indeed the model city of the future.

    Clark’s new urban vision sees a city that marries upper crust with proto-bohemian elements, providing a spectacle for the well-to-do and distracted. Such cities may no longer serve as a vehicle for class mobility, but as an “entertainment machine” for the privileged. For these elite residents, the lures are not economic opportunity, but rather “bicycle paths, beaches and softball fields,” and “up-to-the-date consumption opportunities in the hip restaurants, bars, shops, and boutiques abundant in restructured urban neighborhoods.”

    Clark and other observers give much of the credit to the political regime of Mayor Richard J. Daley, under whose auspices Senator Obama has enjoyed his meteoric rise. But this is not a partisan issue. Conservative author Joseph Epstein, a usually restrained observer, also is in the Daley cheering section,

    Looking behind this celebratory consensus, long-time Chicago observer Steve Bartin sees a far less pretty picture. Corruption, he notes, has not diminished under the younger Daley – new revelations are certain to tarnish Senator Obama’s clean image. Nor can the economic performance of the city be seen as widely successful as it appears to luxury real estate developers. Jobs have languished, Bartin points out, and many others are threatened by technology and the shift of employment to the suburbs as well as more affordable Sunbelt cities.

    Of course, as in other large American cities, Chicago’s real estate market has provided a boon for developers and the high-wage earning elites, including a rising African-American professional class. But many observers, including Bartin, point out that it has not been so good for the poor, who have been often displaced and economically marginalized. At the same time, the middle class, particularly those with children, continue to flee to the suburbs, keeping population growth stagnant or even negative. Roughly half of all white families (as of 2005) leave when their children reach school age.

    The editors at Newgeography.com welcome Chicagoans and other observers to post their comments on this collection – or just their comments – to our new site. We invite controversy, but require politeness and respect among combatants.

    Joel Kotkin is the Executive Editor of Newgeography.com.

  • The Decline of Chicago: The City that Doesn’t Work

    Recently, Crain’s Chicago Business reported on Chicago winning an award from Fast Company magazine. “Chicago stood out in our reporting for its creativity and vitality,” Editor and Managing Director Bob Safian said at a press conference here. “Chicago offers something distinctive.”

    Fast Company Magazine is representative of much of the media: not much on hard facts about Chicago. The Windy City has distinctions but not positive ones. Chicago’s retail sales tax is the highest in the nation at 10.25 percent. Unions, high taxes, and political corruption have made Chicago one of the leaders in big city decline.

    One of the great modern myths of big city America is that Chicago is some sort of successful town and a role model for others. By any traditional performance standards Chicago has failed. Like many old, big industrial cities, Chicago peaked in the 1950 Census with a population of 3,620,962. In the 1950s over two percent of the entire U.S. population lived within Chicago city limits. Over a half century later, while America’s population doubled, Chicago’s population declined. The 1960, 1970, 1980, and 1990 Census numbers showed Chicago losing population.

    Mayor Daley and Chicago residents were quite excited about the 2000 Census showing Chicago gaining over 112,000 people (a growth rate at half the national average for the 1990s). It appears the 1990s were an anomaly for Chicago. Since the year 2000, according to Census estimates, Chicago again continued its population decline with a loss of 63,000 from 2000 to 2006 leaving a total of 2,833,321.

    Recently, the Web site Real Clear Politics listed two Chicago area Congressional districts among the country’s ten fastest-shrinking districts, in terms of percentage of population lost between 2000 and 2005. Jan Schakowsky’s district lost 7.9 percent of its population. Congressman Rahm Emanuel’s district lost 5.1 percent.

    Though 2000 was a somewhat positive year, that year’s Census numbers mask some rather disturbing trends. The white flight out of Chicago continued with 150,000 non- Hispanic white people leaving Chicago from 1990 to 2,000. African-Americans, for the first time, began leaving Chicago with a net loss of 5,000. The population gain in Chicago during the 1990s was due to Hispanics.

    One of the great fables urban lovers of Chicago like to talk about is some comeback of the city. The comeback, according to this urban legend, involves white families staying in Chicago to raise their children. With Chicago’s 150,000 white population decline from 1990 to 2000: Chicago was only 31.3 percent non-Hispanic white.

    What is even more pronounced is the lack of white children in the public school system. The entire Chicago Public School System is only 9 percent white. Not a single public high school has a population that is majority white. Not one.

    Recently, the stubborn facts of Chicago’s population decline made news. As CBS TV Chicago reported in January of 2008:

    Half-empty schools are ‘unacceptable’ because they don’t serve their students or the communities they’re supposed to anchor, Mayor Richard M. Daley said Thursday, setting the stage for the biggest wave of school closings in decades.

    Officials contend 147 of 417 neighborhood elementary schools are from half to more than two-thirds empty because enrollment has declined by 41,000 students in the last seven years. A tentative CPS plan calls for up to 50 under-used schools to close, consolidate with other schools or phase out over the next five years.

    Most of the underused schools are on the South and West Sides, often where the student population is largely African-American, and in lakefront neighborhoods that include Lincoln Park, Lake View, Uptown and North Center.”

    The situation isn’t any better in Chicago’s Catholic School System. The Chicago Tribune reported on February 27, 2007:

    Nicholas Wolsonovich, superintendent of schools for the archdiocese, called the exodus from Chicago’s Catholic schools ‘mind-boggling.’ In 1964, he said, some 500 schools were spread across the diocese, with about 366,000 students. Now, the system has 257 schools and fewer than 100,000 students. Over the last decade statewide, the number of Catholic schools has dropped from 592 in 1997 to 510 this year, according to figures released at the conference.

    Chicago’s political elite love to give speeches about the importance of public education, but not for their children. Mayor Daley sent his children to private schools. Deborah Lynch, the former head of the Chicago Teacher’s Union, sent her kids to private schools. America’s newest political superstar, Barack Obama, sends his kids to private schools. With the exodus of the rich from Chicago’s public schools, 69 percent of the children in the Chicago Public School system are poor.

    The horrible public schools, high taxes, and crime have driven families out of Chicago. The city’s job base cannot compete with anti-union places like Houston and Phoenix.

    Chicago used to be the number one convention town in America but Las Vegas and Orlando now lead the pack. Chicago has lost its top spot as busiest airport to Atlanta. Chicago’s high priced unions and restrictive work rules have driven business elsewhere. For decades, Chicago was a major banking center with two major banking headquarters located on LaSalle Street. Continental Bank and First National Bank of Chicago were always among the top ten largest banks for much of the twentieth century.

    No longer. Continental was purchased by Bank of America while First National Bank of Chicago was purchased by JP Morgan. Not a single bank in the top 25 largest banks in America is headquartered in Chicago. While Chicago’s financial district declines Charlotte, North Carolina has emerged as a bigger banking town. Charlotte has the headquarters of two of the four largest banks in America: Wachovia and Bank of America.

    Other elements of Chicago’s financial district also show major weaknesses. Chicago doesn’t have one major mutual fund company headquarters. Chicago’s mutual fund job base is smaller than Denver, Indianapolis, or Baltimore. Chicago has a few major hedge funds but nothing like New York City or London. Chicago is the futures capital of America with the merger of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade but even here the news isn’t all positive. Computers have shed tens of thousands of jobs in the futures industry. Futures trading floors are headed for extinction within the next three to seven years, eliminating even more jobs.

    Chicago’s high tax life style has driven businesses and jobs to the suburbs. Chicago is one ofthe only towns in America with an employee head tax on employment. Companies with over 50 employees must pay $4 a month per employee to the city. Most of the major corporate headquarters in the Chicago area are located in Chicago’s suburbs. Motorola, Walgreens, All State, Kraft, Anixter, Illinois Tool Works, McDonald’s, Alberta-Culver, and Abbott Labs all have their corporate headquarters outside city limits.

    Recently, Chicago got its first Wal-Mart. In most places in America, politicians allow consumers to decide whether a business should fail or succeed. In Chicago, with the power of the unions, Chicago’s city council has made it difficult for Wal-Mart to open up any more stores. Chicago’s poor are relegated to paying higher retail prices and have less access to entry-level jobs. The adjacent suburb of Niles has the unusual distinction of being the only town in America (with less than 45,000 people) with two Wal-Marts. One of the Niles Wal-Marts is located right across the street from Chicago.

    The largest employer in the city of Chicago is the Federal government. Followed by the City of Chicago Public School system. Other major employers are the city of Chicago, the Chicago Transit Authority, the Cook County government, and the Chicago Park District. These thousands of government workers provide the backbone of the coalition for higher taxes, generous pensions and “political stability”.

    Chicago’s political system is inefficient and costly. There are no term limits in Chicago. The Democratic Party has controlled the Mayor’s office since 1931(a big city record). There’s no opposition: Democrat’s control 49 out of 50 seats on the city council. Corruption is everywhere. Barely a month can go by without a major scandal. The FBI has the largest public corruption squad in the United States located in Chicago . Chicago voters don’t seem to care. Those who care about high taxes, good public schools, and low crime are a small minority in Chicago.

    In conclusion, Chicago’s long decline continues. In the coming years, public pension commitments will test even the high tax tolerant Chicago residents. Look for low regulation, low tax Houston to overtake Chicago in population in the next eight to 15 years.