Tag: Environment

  • Washington Opens The Virtual Office Door

    On December 9, President Obama signed into law the Telework Enhancement Act, a bill designed to increase telework among federal employees. Sponsored by Representatives John Sarbanes (D-MD), Frank Wolf (R-VA) and Gerry Connolly (D-VA), the legislation gives federal agencies six months to establish a telework policy, determine which employees are eligible to telework, and notify employees of their eligibility. Agency managers and employees are required to enter written telework agreements detailing their work arrangements and to receive telework training. Under the Act, teleworkers and non-teleworkers must be treated equally when it comes to performance appraisals, work requirements, promotions and other management issues. Each agency must designate a Telework Managing Officer, and must incorporate telework into its continuity of operations plan.

    Supporters of the measure, including the National Treasury Employees Union and the Telecommunications Industry Association, rightly tout its potential to improve the productivity of federal employees, reduce the government’s overhead expenses, decrease energy consumption and cut carbon emissions. Indeed, the Telework Research Network estimates that if the eligible federal workers who wanted to telecommute did so once a week, agencies would increase productivity “by over $4.6 billion each year” and save “$850 million in annual real estate, electricity, and related costs.” The country would save nearly six million barrels of foreign oil and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by one million tons per year. The bill would enable agencies to continue functioning during emergencies (federal telecommuters saved the government an estimated $30 million per day when D.C.-area snow storms shut down offices last winter), and it would decrease traffic congestion.

    Increasing the number of federal telecommuters is a good first step towards empowering the nation to tap telework’s many benefits. However, a diverse group of advocates would like to see telework become widely available for all workers. The Obama Administration endorses this goal. Proponents of broad access to telework include champions for small businesses and for energy independence, transportation alternatives, work/life balance, homeowners, environmental protection, disabled Americans, and rural economic development. To maximize telework’s promise — including its potential to open employment opportunities for 17.5 million people — Congress must enact comprehensive legislation offering employers, workers and other stakeholders in both the public and private sectors a wide array of cogent reasons to expand the practice.

    Comprehensive legislation would need to offer either carrots or sticks to constituencies that may resist telework’s growth: organizations with telework-shy managers; commercial landlords worried about telework-induced vacancies; and cities and states afraid that reducing the number of commuters will decrease their revenue. A few key elements:

    Remove Regulatory Barriers
    Perhaps the single greatest regulatory barrier to telework is the threat interstate, part-time telecommuters face of being taxed twice at the state level on the wages they earn at home: once by their home state and then again by their employer’s state. New York has been especially aggressive in taxing nonresidents on the wages they earn at home even though their home states can tax those wages, too. The double tax risk makes telework unaffordable for many Americans.

    Proposed federal legislation called the Telecommuter Tax Fairness Act would eliminate this roadblock to telework, prohibiting states from taxing the income nonresidents earn in their home states. This bill, introduced in the 111th Congress by Representatives Jim Himes (D-CT) and Frank Wolf, enjoys bi-partisan support from lawmakers representing states across the country. It must be included in any package intended to accelerate telework’s adoption.

    Simplify the Home Office Deduction
    The complexity of the current home office deduction discourages home-based workers from taking advantage of it. Potent telework legislation would give both home-based business owners and telecommuting employees the option to take a standard home office deduction.

    Offer Incentives To Employers
    Employers should be allowed to treat as nontaxable income the dollar savings they realize as a result of telework. Alternatively, they should receive a tax credit based either on the cost they incur for equipping employees to telecommute or on the percentage of workers who telecommute. They should receive a payroll tax break when they hire new teleworkers

    Because managerial resistance is a significant obstacle to telework’s growth, and because managers who telecommute themselves may have a more positive view of telework than their office-based colleagues, businesses should receive added incentives to allow managers to telecommute.

    Offer Incentives To Workers
    Workers should be allowed a tax credit based on the amount of time they spend telecommuting or on the cost they incur to purchase equipment and services necessary for telecommuting. They should have the option to treat the value of all equipment and services the employer provides to facilitate telework as a fringe benefit excludable from their taxable income, even when personal use of the tools is also permitted.

    Officer Incentives To Insurers
    Insurers covering losses that telework can minimize should be recruited to promote telework with tax advantages. Because experienced teleworkers enable their companies to continue operating even when emergencies render the main office unusable, business continuity insurers can limit their exposure by increasing the number of their policyholders that maintain strong, well-designed telework programs. They should receive incentives to do so.

    Automobile insurers should also be enlisted. The less frequently people drive, the fewer accidents occur and the less liability car insurers face. To motivate these insurers, Congress should offer them tax advantages based on 1) the proportion of their corporate policyholders that have both significant telework programs and aggressive policies to replace work-related driving with Web-based or telephone conferencing; and 2) the proportion of their individual policyholders who telecommute regularly.

    Offer Incentives To Commercial Property Owners
    Because businesses with dispersed workers need less office space, commercial landlords may wince at decentralization. However, the landlords able to fill their buildings with a greater number of tenants requiring less space – rather than fewer tenants requiring more – can thrive. In addition to operating greener and more cost-efficient sites, these landlords can reduce their risk of loss: Because each tenant represents a smaller proportion of a landlord’s total revenues, a single tenant’s default or decision to relocate is less likely to deal the landlord an insurmountable blow.

    To entice commercial property owners to encourage their tenants to adopt telework, Congress should offer the owners tax incentives based on the proportion of their tenants that have either vigorous telework programs or well-enforced policies requiring employees to replace business travel with remote conferencing.

    Make State and Local Efforts To Promote Telework A Condition Of Federal Transportation Funding
    By reducing the demand for roads and mass transit, telecommuting minimizes the cost of repair, maintenance and expansion of such infrastructure. Before the federal government subsidizes state and local transportation investments, the funding recipients should be compelled to mitigate costs by promoting telework.

    One step that states receiving federal aid should be required to take is to eliminate tax barriers to interstate telework. For example, they should be prohibited from subjecting a nonresident company to business activity taxes when the company’s sole connection to the state is its employment of a few in-state telecommuters. States could also allow car insurers to offer pay-as-you-drive policies.

    States and municipalities could require their agencies to develop telework programs for their own workers and to engage only those contractors that make the maximum possible use of telework. They could require agencies seeking funds to increase their car fleets or facilities to submit an assessment of whether telework could eliminate or reduce the need. They could compel their employees who seek approval for business travel to demonstrate that remote conferencing would not be an adequate substitute. They could authorize agencies to retain the funds the agencies save as a result of telework.

    States could create offices that promote telework and provide technical/legal support for both public and private employers developing telework programs; designate high traffic and pollution days as telework days and publicize them; and conduct public awareness campaigns to encourage telework, including campaigns specifically targeting businesses. Municipalities could eliminate telework-hostile zoning rules.

    All of these proposals would go a long way towards minimizing needless travel. Some would cost the federal government nothing or save it money. Others require a federal investment, but the investment would be made via business and individual tax breaks — welcome incentives for many members of the incoming Congress. Together, these suggestions would create jobs and strengthen the nation’s energy security. They would reduce traffic, carbon emissions and transportation costs; enable workers to meet conflicting job and family responsibilities; help businesses lower expenses, and drive profits. These are fundamentally important goals with bi-partisan support. Congress should act quickly and forcefully to unleash telework’s potential to meet them.

    Photo by By Rae Allen, “My portable home office on the back deck”

    Nicole Belson Goluboff is a lawyer in New York who writes extensively on the legal consequences of telework. She is the author of The Law of Telecommuting (ALI-ABA 2001 with 2004 Supplement), Telecommuting for Lawyers (ABA 1998) and numerous articles on telework. She is also an Advisory Board member of the Telework Coalition.

  • Dallas: Building America’s Largest Urban Park on the Trinity Riverside

    A flood protection site in Dallas is being transformed into America’s largest urban park. The economic and ecological benefits of conserving this slice of North Texas are destined to reverberate well beyond the city limits. Blackland Prairie is the most endangered large ecosystem in North America. The development that is underway —thankfully — to preserve this remnant of our past will also shore up our natural assets for the future.

    The Trinity River Corridor Project aims to restore or develop a total of 10,000 acres, including 6,000 acres of forest, 2,000 acres along the river’s Elm Fork, and a 2,000-acre floodway extension, which alone will be three times the size of Central Park. Over eighty percent of it will comprise natural landscape, much of it Blackland Prairie ecology. In 1998, a $246 million bond was passed to establish the ambitious public works project, which will also preserve the Great Trinity Forest, the largest urban bottomland hardwood forest in North America.

    What It Means For Dallas
    After plans to turn the 715-mile Trinity River into a shipping channel were scrapped, the value of the Trinity River and its surrounding environs was re-evaluated. At the 21st Century City conference, Ignacio Bunster-Ossa, a principal with Philadelphia-based Wallace, Roberts & Todd, calculated benefits that included 19,000 new trees to absorb approximately 380 tons of CO2 – the equivalent of 750,000 miles traveled by automobile; 300 acres of wetlands to sequester 3,000-4,000 tons of CO2; and $8.8 billon in development value to boost the local economy.

    Estimated at around $2.2 billion, the Trinity River Corridor Project also allocates a portion of the land use for recreational amenities including an equestrian center, sports fields, trails, and a “nature interpretative center.” International regattas, fireworks, concerts…these are promises for the future, although at present, the nature interpretive center is the only part of the plan that has been completed.

    Trinity River Audubon Center: A Glimpse
    Trinity River Audubon Center is a 21,000 square foot LEED-certified nature education facility . The view from the window of TRAC Executive Director Chris Culak’s office is vintage Old West: fertile soil, coneflowers, Lemon Beebalm, Black-bellied Whistling Ducks, and a vast many other flora and fauna that have sprung up in this nexus of Cross Timbers, grasslands, and wetlands.

    “The property started out as a quarry in the 1940s,” explains Chris. “Since the mid-60s it has been a dump. The guy who ran it was fined repeatedly. The dump caught fire twice— in 1988 at 1997— and the second time it burned for two months, primarily due to the construction debris. Bulldozers had to roll in to make room for the fire trucks.” Ultimately, stakeholders organized and sued the City.

    The City of Dallas estimated it would cost $107-110 million to clean it up, and would take at least 10 years. In 2000, it resolved the matter by doing a $25 million landfill instead, which was completed in record time. Its partnership with the National Audubon Society to develop a nature center within this property demonstrates how a municipal liability can be transformed into a major asset.

    Today, the Trinity River Audubon Center is the gateway to remarkable biodiversity that blossoms across 120 acres, including four miles of meandering trails. Since opening in October 2008, more than 85,000 people have come through the Center, 30,000 of whom are students. Reflecting the National Audubon Society’s mission to connect people to the outdoors, TRAC is fostering a conservation ethos in children who may not get it elsewhere.

    Getting Down to Brass Tax
    The Trinity River Audubon Center presents a great example of the economic development potential in public-private partnerships. The $15 million TRAC building was jointly paid for by the City of Dallas, which contributed $13.5 million and the National Audubon Society, which covered the rest. Additional funds are appropriations from the federal government for flood control, and from state, county, city, and private funds.

    The City’s return on its initial investment is a restoration project that totals $37 million in capital improvements. As with other public-private partnerships for cultural centers such as the Dallas Museum of Art and the Nasher Sculpture Garden, the City maintains ownership, but only pays a small stipend. Beyond that, these entities must raise their own money.

    “People sometimes say that if it’s worth so much, then private interests will develop it,” says TRAC’s Culak, “but without the vision for implementation and municipal support, you can’t get that kind of development in here.” He added, “The economic benefit will be tenfold, but we’re going to have to put something into it to get as much out of it.”

    Fortunately, Dallas has tremendous resources within its philanthropic community. A core group of visionaries have been keepers of the dream, including Gail Thomas, Ph.D., the president of The Trinity Trust. “The average citizen in Dallas doesn’t have a clue about the marvelous, dramatic changes that will take place in their lives,” says Gail.

    Renewal Takes Awhile
    “In the 20th century we created our cities to move as quickly as we could from one place to another,” explains Gail. “We built these cities in the fast lane, for connectivity. In the midst of building airports, railroads, and highways we forgot the importance of walking, of having our human senses activated by our environment. Consequently, our 20th century cities have been rather cruel to human sensibilities. We seek a more humane city, one that allows for the complexities of diverse lifestyles while offering serene and quiet places that feed the soul.”

    To get to this vision will require a significant amount of development, over the next decade and beyond. Says Culak, “This is on the same order as building DFW Airport was over 50 years ago. Any resistance we have to it is just like it was then.” He continues, “People want things instantly. They are still asking, ‘What’s in it for me?’ Unless you go on vacation to Indianapolis, Pittsburgh or Vancouver, you don’t necessarily know what other cities are doing. For Dallas, this is it. It’s a city built on a prairie next to a river. The Trinity River is the only natural resource we have. You’ve got to use what you have.”

    Dallasites are in for a surprise when they discover that what we do have is a river made for kayaking. The standing wave, a practice whitewater feature, will open this spring, the horse park will open its first barns this coming year, and the first of two Calatrava bridges will open in October 2011.

    Such events represent a great thrust forward for a project that is still a mystery to many in this community. “There have been a lot of naysayers,” says Gail, “but we think we’ll have the last laugh.”

    Photo of Trinity River near Dallas by gurdonark — Robert Nunnally

    Anna Clark is the author of Green, American Style and the president of EarthPeople. She lives in one of Dallas’ first residences to earn a Platinum-LEED certification from the U.S. Green Building Council.

  • How Liberalism Self-destructed

    Democrats are still looking for explanations for their stunning rejection in the midterms — citing everything from voting rights violations and Middle America’s racist orientation to Americans’ inability to perceive the underlying genius of President Barack Obama’s economic policy.

    What they have failed to consider is the albatross of contemporary liberalism.

    Liberalism once embraced the mission of fostering upward mobility and a stronger economy. But liberalism’s appeal has diminished, particularly among middle-class voters, as it has become increasingly control-oriented and economically cumbersome.

    Today, according to most recent polling, no more than one in five voters call themselves liberal.

    This contrasts with the far broader support for the familiar form of liberalism forged from the 1930s to the 1990s. Democratic presidents from Franklin D. Roosevelt to Bill Clinton focused largely on basic middle-class concerns — such as expanding economic opportunity, property ownership and growth.

    Modern-day liberalism, however, is often ambivalent about expanding the economy — preferring a mix of redistribution with redirection along green lines. Its base of political shock troops, public-employee unions, appears only tangentially interested in the health of the overall economy.

    In the short run, the diminishment of middle-of-the-road Democrats at the state and national level will probably only worsen these tendencies, leaving a rump party tied to the coastal regions, big cities and college towns. There, many voters are dependents of government, subsidized students or public employees, or wealthy creative people, college professors and business service providers.

    This process — driven in large part by the liberal attachment to economically regressive policies such as cap and trade — cost the Democrats mightily throughout the American heartland. Politicians who survived the tsunami, such as Sen. Joe Manchin in West Virginia, did so by denouncing proposals in states where green policies are regarded as hostile to productive local industries that are major employers.

    Populism, a traditional support of liberalism, has been undermined by a deep suspicion that President Barack Obama’s economic policy favors Wall Street investment bankers over those who work on Main Street. This allowed the GOP, a party long beholden to monied interests, to win virtually every income segment earning more than $50,000.

    Obama also emphasized an urban agenda that promoted nationally directed smart growth, inefficient light rail and almost ludicrous plans for a national high-speed rail network. These proposals appealed to the new urbanist cadre but had little appeal for the vast majority of Americans who live in outer-ring neighborhoods, suburbs and small towns.

    The failure of Obama-style liberalism has less to do with government activism than with how the administration defined its activism. Rather than deal with basic concerns, it appeared to endorse the notion of bringing the federal government into aspects of life — from health care to zoning — traditionally controlled at the local level.

    This approach is unpopular even among “millennials,” who, with minorities, represent the best hope for the Democratic left. As the generational chroniclers Morley Winograd and Michael Hais point out, millennials favor government action — but generally at the local level, which is seen as more effective and collaborative. Top-down solutions from “experts,” Winograd and Hais write in a forthcoming book, are as offensive to millennials as the right’s penchant for dictating lifestyles.

    Often eager to micromanage people’s lives, contemporary liberalism tends to obsess on the ephemeral while missing the substantial. Measures such as San Francisco’s recent ban on Happy Meals follow efforts to control the minutiae of daily life. This approach trivializes the serious things government should do to boost economic growth and opportunity.

    Perhaps worst of all, the new liberals suffer from what British author Austin Williams has labeled a “poverty of ambition.” FDR offered a New Deal for the middle class, President Harry S. Truman offered a Fair Deal and President John F. Kennedy pushed us to reach the moon.

    In contrast, contemporary liberals seem more concerned about controlling soda consumption and choo-chooing back to 19th-century urbanism. This poverty of ambition hurts Democrats outside the urban centers. For example, when I met with mayors from small, traditionally Democratic cities in Kentucky and asked what the stimulus had done for them, almost uniformly they said it accomplished little or nothing.

    A more traditional liberal approach might have focused on improvements that could leave tangible markers of progress across the nation. The New Deal’s major infrastructure projects — ports, airports, hydroelectric systems, road networks — transformed large parts of the country, notably in the West and South, from backwaters to thriving modern economies.

    When FDR commissioned projects such as the Tennessee Valley Authority, he literally brought light to darkened regions. The loyalty created by FDR and Truman built a base of support for liberalism that lasted for nearly a half-century.

    Today’s liberals don’t show enthusiasm for airports or dams — or anything that may kick up some dirt. Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Interior Deanna Archuleta, for example, promised a Las Vegas audience: “You will never see another federal dam.”

    Harold Ickes, FDR’s enterprising interior secretary, must be turning over in his grave.

    The administration would have done well to revive programs like the New Deal Works Progress Administration and Civilian Conservation Corps. These addressed unemployment by providing jobs that also made the country stronger and more competitive. They employed more than 3 million people building thousands of roads, educational buildings and water, sewer and other infrastructure projects.

    Why was this approach never seriously proposed for this economic crisis? Green resistance to turning dirt may have been part of it. But undoubtedly more critical was opposition from public- sector unions, which seem to fear any program that threatens their economic privileges.

    In retrospect, it’s easy to see why many great liberals — like FDR and New York City Mayor Fiorello LaGuardia — detested the idea of public-sector unions.

    Of course, green, public-sector-dominated politics can work — as it has in fiscally challenged blue havens such as California and New York. But then, a net 3 million more people — many from the middle class — have left these two states in the past 10 years.

    If this defines success, you have to wonder what constitutes failure.

    This article originally appeared in Politico.

    Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography.com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University and an adjunct fellow with the Legatum Institute in London. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in February, 2010.

    Photo: Tony the Misfit

  • A Price on Carbon: the New Greenmail

    Hidden from view during the Australian election, a carbon price is back on the political agenda. This comes as no surprise. Anyone following the debate, however, will see that it has nothing to do with the environment. For some time we have been urged to “act now”, but the grounds keep shifting and changing. Early on it was the drought. Then the Great Barrier Reef. After that the Bali Conference. Then the election of Barack Obama. Next came the Copenhagen Conference. Then being “left behind” in clean technology. Now, apparently, “inaction will cost more in the end”. All have come and gone – including the drought which was supposed to be with us forever.

    Even so, we are assured that a price on carbon is “inevitable”.

    The frantic search for a rationale is driven by the plain fact that there is no environmental reason for Australia to have a carbon price. In tandem with efforts to manufacture urgency, there has been an equally devious campaign to misrepresent the process of climate change, or at least the IPCC’s “consensus” version. Crucial has been the cynical manipulation of words like “pollution” and “clean”. “Carbon pollution” is a scientifically absurd term designed to distort the basic issue. If the “consensus” science is right, the problem is with the concentrations of carbon dioxide, not the natural, clean, life-giving gas itself. Most of the public associate “pollution” with “dirty” emissions such as exhaust fumes and particulate matter. By definition, reducing such pollution is good. Many, if not most, still believe this is what climate action is about, thanks to obscurantist Greens and others. In the same way, “clean” energy is seen as the antidote to “dirty” or “polluting” gases. Who can be against cleanliness? Derivative terms like “the big polluters” are also deceptive.

    Greens, activists and others with a stake in climate action live in mortal dread of the public grasping the truth. Since the concentrations are the issue, rather than carbon dioxide as such, Australia can do nothing about climate change. Our share of global emissions is too small. Nor do the world’s highest emitters show any sign of caring about what we do.

    No Australian Prime Minister did, or could have done, more to push climate onto the world’s agenda than Kevin Rudd. Asked about the Copenhagen fiasco in the dying days of his prime ministership, Rudd delivered this famous outburst: “There was no government in the world like the Australian Government which threw its every energy at bringing about a deal, a global deal, on climate change. Penny Wong and I sat up for three days and three nights with 20 leaders from around the world to try and frame a global agreement.” The UN assigned Rudd a special role drafting the text of the prospective protocol. Ultimately, he was rebuffed by large and small emitters alike. The face-saving accord was cobbled together without him.

    Australia can’t combat climate change directly by reducing its own emissions, or indirectly by encouraging larger emitters to reduce theirs. If we lack the power to prevent adverse climate effects, should they eventuate, we can’t avoid any higher costs of delayed action. Forget the constant bleating about China “doing its part.” Now the world’s largest emitter, China’s official policy is to reduce the “carbon intensity” of its economy (the carbon emitted per unit of GDP), not to cut emissions. This means emissions will continue to rise, although (possibly) at a diminishing rate. The point is this “action” is way short of what the IPCC considers necessary to make a difference. Greens keep asking the wrong question. It’s not whether China does “something” that matters, but whether that something is relevant. India does even less. As for the second largest emitter, opinion polls suggest a carbon price will remain dead in the United States after the November mid-term elections.

    So why must Australia have a carbon price? One thing is for sure: it has nothing to do with climate. In his early interviews as Minister for Climate Change, Greg Combet referred to it, repeatedly, as “a very important economic reform”. Calling it an environmental measure would raise too many awkward questions. Certainly, a carbon price has serious economic impacts, but gracing it with the label “economic reform” is disingenuous. The word “reform” connotes improvement. Economic reform is designed to spur growth by improving productivity and efficiency. In contrast, a carbon price damages productivity, by raising cost inputs, and hampers efficient resource allocation. It isn’t economic reform. It’s an environmental measure, but utterly futile.

    Climate activists were elated when Marius Kloppers, the boss of BHP Billiton, recently declared that a global carbon price is inevitable, so Australia should get in early. His grounds for this belief are a mystery. All the evidence suggests that a global price on carbon will be as elusive as world peace. He would have been on firmer ground to restrict his prediction to Australia. Still, environmental factors were far from Kloppers’s mind. As the arguments for a carbon price fall in succession, one lingers on. Endless speculation is undermining investor confidence, so the argument runs, and producing uncertainty in industries with long investment lead times, like the capital-intensive energy industry. This can only be ended with the swift introduction of a carbon price. Of course the argument is entirely circular. The activists, politicians and journalists who push this line are themselves instrumental in generating the speculation, uncertainty and paralysis, and for obvious reasons.

    Back in the 1980s, “greenmail”, an amalgam of blackmail and greenback, referred to the practice of buying enough shares in a company to threaten a takeover, thereby forcing the company to buy the shares back at a premium. As the practise and word have since faded away, perhaps it’s time to revive the term “greenmail” and invest it with new meaning. Greenmail occurs when officials and activists with media power disrupt stability and certainty in a particular industry, maintaining pressure and an air of crisis, to intimidate business leaders holding out against some senseless green measure.

    If Australia does end up with a carbon price, it will be due to greenmail rather than any rational consideration.

    This article first appeared at The New City Journal.

    Photo by Amit (Sydney)

  • Environmental Consequences of Low Fertility Rates

    But isn’t it great news for the environment that we are having fewer children?”

    We should always stress the positive in life. Were it not for the dramatic slowdown in birthrates that began the late 1960s and 70s, the apocalyptic warnings of overpopulation then voiced Paul Ehrlich, the Club of Rome, and many others could well have come true in short order. We are lucky that they did not. But it is not clear the “the planet” is any better off as a consequence.

    Consider, for example, that when Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and the other Asian Tiger countries first began to experience sharp declines in fertility in the 1970s, their economies simultaneously took off, leading to far higher levels of per capita and total consumption. More recently, China, and to a lesser extent India, have followed the same pattern. Viewed through the lens of demography this does not look like a coincidence.

    The first order effect of fertility decline is that there are proportionately fewer children to raise and educate. This both frees up female labor to join the formal economy, and allows for greater investment in the education of each remaining child. All else being equal, both factors stimulate economic development, and by extension pollution and resource depletion.

    Low fertility societies can put extra burdens on the environment in other ways as well. For example, they have a higher proportion of singles and childless couples, who generally have more money and opportunity to engage in new forms of consumption, such as world travel or eating out regularly, than do people bearing the responsibilities of family life. (Think of Japan’s so-called “parasite singles”—childless, young adults notorious for their high living).

    A rising proportion of childless households also affects the pattern of living arrangements in ways that can be harmful to environment. Five childless singles living in separate housing units, each with its own washer and dryer, stove, refrigerator, etc., will tend to have a bigger environment footprint than a five-person family that lives under one roof, as will be confirmed by any “carbon footprint” calculator. Such factors help to explain why even in places like Japan and Germany where population is already deceasing in absolute size, increases in per capita consumption result in increasing total carbon emissions.

    Of course, over time, low birthrates lead not to just fewer children, but to fewer working age people as well, even as the percentage of dependent elders explodes. This means that as population aging runs it course, it may depress economic activity for a variety of reasons. Yet even if these and other factors related to population aging ultimately cause a Great Recession and thereby tamp down use of natural resources, is still not clear the consequences for the environment are necessarily positive.

    For example, a society that is paying more and more for pensions and health care also has fewer financial resources available for environmental remediation and investment in “green technology” Also, a society facing dwindling numbers of workers available to support each retiree may respond by adopting patterns of production and consumption that save labor but are far more energy intensive and thereby create lots of environmental damage. (Modern industrialized agriculture, with its high inputs of fossil energy, synthetic chemicals, and water, for example, becomes closer to a necessity if there are dwindling numbers of people available to work the land).

    An aging society may also come to believe that there is no other way to preserve an eroding tax base or to pay for old age entitlement than by stimulating economic growth by whatever means. These could include subsiding suburban sprawl, bailing out auto makers, and other measures that are particularly hard on the planet. Finally, once the point of absolute population decline sets in, this may work against the feasibility of mass transit, high speed rail, and other forms of infrastructure that require a high population density to be economically feasible.

    Was Malthus wrong?
    Malthus and his many present day followers could still be right that we face a future of scarcity. Particularly alarming is the declining growth in agricultural productivity. The so-called Green Revolution, which involved the intensive use of petroleum-based fertilizers, synthetic chemical pesticides herbicides, irrigation, genetic engineering of crops and animals, mechanization, and economies of scale, appears to be approaching its limits. Already, the rate of productivity growth on American and European agriculture has dropped substantially in this decade compared to the 1990s, due to such factors as soil and water depletion, the increasing resistance of pests to chemical treatment, and the simple fact that there is only so much fertilizer one can add to soils and still have it benefit crops. World food production no longer produces a surplus, and in recent years has fallen below the rate of population growth. Decreasing genetic diversity in the crops on which humans depend also makes world agricultural production increasingly vulnerable to climate change, which is always occurring regardless of cause. Feeding the next one billion could be a lot harder than feeding the last one billion, even if most are seniors.

    Yet here again, emerging scarcities of food and other natural resources argue against any reversal in the current downward trend in fertility. If a huge and growing portion of mankind already finds the cost of children prohibitive under modern conditions how will they respond in their family planning when the cost of food and energy (to say nothing of health care and pension contributions) rises further?

    Key to understanding here is that phrase “modern conditions,” or more specifically the institutional arrangement that affect the economics of family life far more than the simple “cost of living.” If rising food and energy prices cause a reversal of the global trend toward urbanism and a renewal of small-scale, local production and rural life, this could be begin to restore the economic basis of the family. In that process, children would regain stranding as productive assets and fertility rates could be expected to rise as a result.

    The ongoing rollback of social security and other intergenerational transfer programs around the world pushes in the same direction. But until globalism and the welfare state are damaged to the extent that they lose even their short-term viability, increasing scarcity will push down fertility rates by increasing the cost of children and thereby accelerate global aging with all its attendant challenges.

    Phillip Longman, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation and the Washington Monthly, is the author of The Empty Cradle and many other writings on demographics and social change.

    Photo by Ethan Prater

  • The EPA: Leading Into A Rain Garden?

    Newly-installed solar Panels on the White House are an obvious signal that this administration wants to lead by example. Conservatives will no doubt find ways to ridicule the panels, and liberals will praise them as a display to the world that we are a green nation. About one year ago, on Oct. 5, 2009, the President signed Executive Order (EO) 13514, “Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy, and Economic Performance.” Like the white house solar panels, this EO also is intended to urge federal agencies to lead by example. It sets as policy that federal agencies shall “…conserve and protect water resources through efficiency, reuse, and storm water management.”

    How far have we come… and how far are we likely to be able to go in achieving these goals?

    For federal facilities, the EPA’s green infrastructure solutions , biological systems and engineered systems include, but are not necessarily limited to:

    • Rain gardens, bioretention, and infiltration planters
    • Porous pavements
    • Vegetated swales and bioswales
    • Green roofs
    • Trees and tree boxes
    • Pocket wetlands
    • Reforestation/revegetation
    • Protection and enhancement of riparian buffers and floodplains
    • Rainwater harvesting for use (e.g., irrigation, HVAC make‐up, non‐potable indoor uses)

    For new facilities, these would be good moves. For many years, our design firm has been planning new developments with very low environmental impacts, using approaches that have been either volunteered by the developer or mandated by the local regulations. We accomplish low impact designs by reducing the infrastructure needed for new development, which reduces both economic and environmental impact. Land development can be more efficient, when designed properly, than conventional or Smart Growth design methods; it can allow lower development costs while still complying with EPA mandates. It can be done by harnessing new design methods made possible by the development of new technologies. While “green” brings an image to builders’ minds of expensive, problematic development, being “green” can be less expensive if done right.

    Speaking from my experience in designing 700 neighborhoods in 46 States (and 13 countries), all with innovative design methods, and building a Net-Zero home in 1983, as well as a dual-certified Green home in 2009, here’s how I evaluate the likelihood of success of the current EPA options:

    Rain gardens, bioretention, and infiltration planters: These organic methods are possibly the most economically viable, but they do come with constant maintenance costs that the building facility owner must be aware of. A bio-retention that is not designed properly or maintained constantly will quickly fail. Unlike concrete pipes and iron sewer grates along curbs which can be left alone for decades, an organic solution to storm water must be installed by an experienced expert with a proven track record, and maintained by personnel that know what they are doing. If built correctly and maintained constantly, this can be the lowest cost solution IF there is enough land area and proper topography (flow of the land) to design the system properly in the first place. Typically, these systems rely on surface flow with no curbing or special curbing to allow drainage off paved areas. On newly developed sites, this could mean a significant cost saving. On existing development, replacing curb may be expensive.

    Porous pavements: Sounds simple – install a pavement that allows rain to flow through to the ground. The big problem and huge expense comes from making sure that the ground under the pavement also porous. In other words, if you were to remove an asphalt parking lot and replace it with porous asphalt, the environmental impact would not change. Why? Because under the original asphalt is likely a non-porous class 5 (or similar) base. In a genuinely porous paved surface, the storm water moving through the pavement must continue through the ground below. This means a base that allows storm water to be held and filtered slowly to the ground below, or directed elsewhere. Sounds expensive? You betcha! Two other major problems: heavy vehicles used at federal facilities could damage these systems, and, if the ground freezes, expansion could be a problem. Long term lifespan of porous pavements may be less than that of solid surfaces.

    Vegetated swales and bioswales: See rain gardens, above.

    Green roofs: Retrofit Green Roofs on to buildings not originally designed for them? Green roofs did not work well in 1983 when I built my Net-Zero home during the first (failed, somehow forgotten) green movement, so I’m not sure what has changed to make them feasible. Green roofs can absorb the sun’s energy to solve the heat island problem of large facilities, but simply coating a dark roof with a light or white color solves the heat island problem with little expense.

    Trees and tree boxes: Trees and tree boxes will have little impact on reducing storm water impacts. Of course there are other benefits for planting trees, so, while a good thing, this does little to comply with the mandate.

    Pocket wetlands: See rain gardens, above.

    Reforestation/revegetation: Assumes the federal facility has plenty of space to allow such a thing.

    Protection and enhancement of riparian buffers and floodplains: Assumes there are riparian buffers and flood plains on the site, or adjacent to the site, that can be altered.

    Rainwater harvesting for use (e.g., irrigation, HVAC make‐up, non‐potable indoor uses): Also a good solution when possible. For example, when 90% of the surface is paving and rooftop, the resulting storage of rainfall could be tremendous, depending upon where in the country the facilities are located, and ample to irrigate the remaining small surface.

    Nobody is an expert on all issues, so there may be new factors that I’m not aware of that would make a method more feasible than what we have experienced.

    What is completely missing from the EPA options here are ways to make an existing facility more efficient by removing excessive paved areas. When an existing facility was originally designed, was it efficient in the first place? Keep in mind that being efficient is not necessarily profitable. If the original consulting engineer and architectural firm fees were based upon a percentage of construction costs, then creating excessive construction costs meant larger fees. Paving contractors maximize profit by covering the most land possible with asphalt or concrete.

    The EPA order can be an opportunity to help design solutions that are cost effective to comply with the mandate. For my firm, the mandate could leverage our low impact software system sales, a technology that can be used to reduce wasteful construction while in redevelopment, so we may directly benefit from this mandate. But before that can happen — and before we can know how successful the EPA directives will be — many questions remain to be answered.

    Photo: Pigeons in front of the EPA building by benchilada

    Rick Harrison is President of Rick Harrison Site Design Studio and Neighborhood Innovations, LLC. He is author of Prefurbia: Reinventing The Suburbs From Disdainable To Sustainable and creator of Performance Planning System. His websites are rhsdplanning.com and performanceplanningsystem.com.

  • Green Jobs for Janitors: How Neoliberals and Green Keynesians Wrecked Obama’s Promise of a Clean Energy Economy

    In August 2008, then-candidate Barack Obama traveled to Lansing, Michigan, to lay out an ambitious ten-year plan for revitalizing, and fundamentally altering, the American economy. His administration, he vowed, would midwife new clean-energy industries, reduce dependence on foreign oil, and create five million green jobs. “Will America watch as the clean-energy jobs and industries of the future flourish in countries like Spain, Japan, or Germany?” Obama asked. “Or will we create them here, in the greatest country on earth, with the most talented, productive workers in the world?”

    Two years later, the answer to that second question appears to be no. Obama’s environmental agenda is in tatters. His green jobs plan has done little to make a dent in unemployment, which persists at close to 10 percent. Obama’s signature environmental initiative, cap-and-trade, died in the Senate in July. And, during the first year of Obama’s tenure, China massively outspent the United States on clean-energy technology.

    The story of how Obama’s green agenda came up empty is more complicated than the one conventionally told by Democrats and greens, who imagine that cap-and-trade would have been transformational had Republicans and global-warming deniers not gotten in the way. In truth, the president’s strategy was flawed from the start. Cap-and-trade would not have birthed a domestic clean-energy economy — indeed, it wasn’t designed to. Meanwhile, the administration’s green stimulus spending was split between short-term, if worthy, investments in green technology, to which far too little money was allocated, and over-hyped public-works projects that would never have delivered the new industrial economy Obama promised as a candidate.

    Voodoo Economics

    Shortly before the House passed its version of cap-and-trade legislation last year, the Center for American Progress (CAP), headed by Obama transition director John Podesta, released a study claiming that the cap-and-trade bill and the stimulus combined would create 1.7 million new jobs. Democrats repeatedly pointed to the CAP report to support their jobs claims. Extrapolating from the report’s analysis, it seems that over half of the new jobs, almost 900,000, were supposed to come from building retrofits. The study’s authors apparently believed that a mere $5 billion in stimulus funding for weatherization, plus a price on carbon, would leverage $80 billion annually in private investment and lead to the retrofitting of every single commercial and residential building in America in just ten years.

    Alongside the CAP report, the Natural Resources Defense Council and the leading green jobs group, Green For All, released another study written by two of the same authors, claiming that roughly half of the jobs would benefit low-wage workers and would offer “decent opportunities for promotions and rising wages over time.” Indeed, environmentalists such as Van Jones — who had come to prominence calling upon young people to “put down those handguns and pick up some caulking guns” and briefly served as Obama’s green jobs czar — claimed that building retrofits and cap-and-trade legislation could save both the planet and the inner city.

    In reality, the stimulus’s $5 billion weatherization program, according to the Department of Energy, created or saved just 13,000 jobs during the last reported quarter. But, even if more of these jobs had been created, the idea that inner-city youth should see what are essentially janitorial jobs as a pathway out of poverty was always far-fetched. America’s black middle class emerged from the steel, ship, and automobile factories of the postwar industrial heyday. Those jobs were high-skill, high-wage, and long-term. They manufactured products that could be sold on domestic and foreign markets, and they provided the economic basis for a dramatic improvement in black America’s standard of living. Jobs retrofitting buildings and weatherizing homes are, by contrast, low-skill and short-term.

    To be fair, Democrats in Congress and White House officials always believed that while the stimulus expenditures represented a down payment on the clean energy economy, the real action would ultimately be driven by private investments in response to cap and trade, not sustained public investments in innovation and manufacturing.

    In this way the green Keynesianism that characterized the stimulus comfortably accommodated itself to the neoliberal policy predilections that have, over the last 20 years, become Democratic Party orthodoxy. Born of fashionable neoclassical economic theory and political expediency after the Reagan revolution, Democratic neoliberalism embraces the notion that private firms are better and more efficient at “picking winners,” technological and otherwise, than government. This cliche was never based on the real-world history of technological innovation or economic growth but rather upon the neoclassical assumption that governments must do a worse job than private actors since they are not motivated by profit and cannot act rationally.

    Even Jones, who spent recent years railing against neoliberal economic policies, accepts this neoliberal conceit. “The real solution to this whole thing is to put a price on carbon,” Jones told Pacifica’s Democracy Now in the fall of 2008. “The biggest economic stimulus I can imagine would be a carbon tax or a cap and trade… so that suddenly there is a market signal for private capital to start moving aggressively in a clean energy, low carbon direction.”

    But cap and trade could never deliver the millions of new jobs that Obama, Congressional Democrats, and greens promised. The primary obstacle to private sector investment in clean energy technologies is not the absence of modest carbon price signals such as those in the Congress’ cap and trade proposals and currently in place in Europe. Rather, it is the vast price gap between fossil fuels and clean energy technologies. While fossil fuels are energy dense, widely available, easy to consume, and supported by a well-developed infrastructure, the alternatives are costly, cumbersome, intermittent, or all of the above.

    Yet cap and trade enjoyed mainstream credibility for as long as it did in spite of these hard technological realities because economic models seemed to show that a rising carbon price would cause technological innovation and hence emissions reductions. Cap and traders used these models to argue that once we have a carbon price, the market would magically deliver technology innovation because private firms would have an incentive to invest to make those technologies better and cheaper.

    But the magic wasn’t in the market, it was in the models constructed by neoclassical economists, which simply assume substantial rates of technological change. Innovation — non-linear, unpredictable, and ephemeral — is understandably difficult to model. Perhaps more significantly, important innovations have as often as not been the result of public investments in technology which economists, following neoclassical doctrine, are loathe to acknowledge, much less include in their models.

    The real world gives us ample reason to be skeptical of carbon pricing claims. The European Union has had a cap-and-trade system in place since 2005, and Norway and Sweden have had carbon taxes since the early ’90s. None have spurred much innovation. On the contrary, much of Europe has been on a coal-plant-building binge over the last decade. Where European nations have advanced clean-energy technologies–whether wind in Denmark, nuclear in France, or solar in Germany–they did so through direct investments in those technologies that dwarfed the economic incentive provided by carbon pricing.

    The Ideology of Decline

    In late May, President Obama told employees at a solar panel factory in California, “I’m not prepared to cede American leadership” in clean energy. But that is in effect what his policies have done. While U.S. policymakers have fetishized carbon pricing and energy efficiency retrofitting, America’s competitors have been investing heavily to deepen their domination of solar, wind, nuclear, electric car, and high-speed rail technology and manufacturing.

    China, Japan and Korea have moved forward with aggressive plans to out-manufacture, out-innovate, and out-compete the United States in clean tech. China alone plans to spend more than $740 billion (5 trillion yuan) over the next 10 years. While neoclassical economists and their disciples in Washington have presided over the deindustrialization and financialization of the American economy, our economic competitors have used long-term investments to establish dominant positions in advanced, high value manufacturing sectors such as automobiles, electronics, information technology, and now clean tech.

    Obama too could have focused on winning a similarly long-term commitment to public investment in green innovation and manufacturing. Instead, he threw his political capital behind cap-and-trade. Despite the fact that the rising domination of key clean energy technologies by our economic rivals could in no way be attributed to a price on carbon — China, Japan, and Korea don’t even have one — Obama, his Congressional allies, and their cheerleaders in the media such as New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, have continued to insist that cap and trade legislation was the key to reestablishing U.S. competitiveness in clean tech.

    In truth, cap and trade was conceived as a strategy to minimize the cost of reducing emissions, not to create domestic industries or jobs. Indeed, economists typically argue that government should not even concern itself with such issues. To the neoclassical mind, making microchips is no better than making potato chips, as innovation expert Rob Atkinson wryly observes. If China is better at making solar panels and we are better at making foam insulation, then we should just buy our solar panels from China. From this point of view, creating low-skill construction jobs installing compact fluorescent light bulbs in old buildings has the same economic utility as creating high-skill jobs manufacturing solar panels and nuclear reactors for export.

    Apply these assumptions to climate and energy policy, and what you get is the failed Democratic agenda. Governments should cap carbon emissions and auction the right to pollute. Doing so would establish a price on carbon pollution that will make fossil fuels increasingly expensive and thus drive private investment and consumption to efficiency and renewables. If all those solar panels and windmills get made in China — so be it. America will still lead the world in potato chips or something else.

    This is not a recipe for American economic competitiveness in clean energy technology and manufacturing. America’s nascent clean energy industries need sustained public investments to survive and prosper. While neoliberal greens and their allies were hyperventilating over the death of cap and trade, the stimulus investments in technology and manufacturing were hard at work laying the foundations for a competitive clean economy. Though overshadowed by the public works-style efficiency programs, stimulus-funded investments in clean technology arguably saved the American renewables industry, which was in free-fall after the 2008 financial crisis.

    In contrast to the green public works projects, stimulus investments in manufacturing and innovation have largely done what they were intended to do — support an embryonic domestic industry and help improve clean energy technologies so that they can become competitive with fossil fuels. Those investments helped put American clean energy manufacturing back on a competitive footing globally, and, ironically, created more jobs at less cost than the green public works investments that were supposed to put millions of Americans back to work. Already, Deutsche Bank estimates that the stimulus grew U.S. battery manufacturers production capacity from two percent of the global market to 20 percent by 2012, and the story is similar for other technologies.

    Those technologies still have a long way to go before they will be good enough and cheap enough to become the basis for a sustained American economic renewal. But the road map for getting there looks a lot more like what America began through the stimulus investments in technology and manufacturing than through the green public works programs and carbon market making that have distracted the Administration and Congress for the better part of the last two years.

    This should not particularly surprise us as the history of industrialization and technology innovation in America is the history of government investment in technology. In the postwar era, the federal government made investments in the development and commercialization of new technologies such as nuclear power, computers, the Internet, biomedical research, jet turbines, solar power, wind power and countless other technologies at a scale that private firms simply could not have replicated. Those investments “crowded in” rather than crowded out private investment and the result was high growth and prosperity that benefited virtually every American.

    Unfortunately, neither Obama nor his fellow Democrats still seem to get it. While White House officials, in the wake of the collapse of cap and trade, tout the impressive short-term accomplishments of the stimulus investments in technology and manufacturing, they have done little to date to prevent them from expiring next year.

    Change We Can Believe In

    Obama appears genuinely moved by the vision of a clean-energy economy. He seems to have convinced himself, however, that America’s energy economy can be transformed through carbon markets and efficiency retrofits.

    The president’s proposal to “make clean energy the profitable kind of energy” — which was always code for making fossil fuels more expensive — today needs to be replaced by a focused effort to make clean energy cheap through innovation. Doing so will require large, direct, and sustained federal investments in new energy technologies. This focus on innovation may seem like an indirect way to create jobs, but history shows it is also the one with the strongest record of producing whole new industries — industries that have driven America’s long-term economic expansion.

    There is a growing consensus in favor of such an effort, which includes some conservatives and Republicans who opposed cap-and-trade. Support for greater investment in energy innovation includes corporate chieftains, such as Bill Gates, GE’s Jeff Immelt, and Intel founder Andy Grove, as well as dozens of Nobel laureate scientists and energy policy experts across the ideological spectrum.

    The failure of cap-and-trade to make it through the Senate may thus turn out to be a blessing in disguise. It spares the country a program that would have done little to help either the economy or the environment. And it gives Obama and the Democrats an opportunity to reconsider how they might build the clean-energy economy they were elected to deliver. With the right policies, the answer to the question Obama posed two years ago in Lansing — will the United States lead the way in creating clean-energy jobs? — can still be yes.

    This piece originally appeared at Breakthrough Blog.

    Michael Shellenberger and Ted Nordhaus are co-founders of the Breakthrough Institute and authors of Break Through.

    Image by heatingoil

  • Environmentalism as Religion

    Traditional religion is having a tough time in parts of the world. Majorities in most European countries have told Gallup pollsters in the last few years that religion does not “occupy an important place” in their lives. Across Europe, Judeo-Christian church attendance is down, as is adherence to religious prohibitions such as those against out-of-wedlock births. And while Americans remain, on average, much more devout than Europeans, there are demographic and regional pockets in this country that resemble Europe in their religious beliefs and practices.

    The rejection of traditional religion in these quarters has created a vacuum unlikely to go unfilled; human nature seems to demand a search for order and meaning, and nowadays there is no shortage of options on the menu of belief. Some searchers syncretize Judeo-Christian theology with Eastern or New Age spiritualism. Others seek through science the ultimate answers of our origins, or dream of high-tech transcendence by merging with machines — either approach depending not on rationalism alone but on a faith in the goodness of what rationalism can offer.

    For some individuals and societies, the role of religion seems increasingly to be filled by environmentalism. It has become “the religion of choice for urban atheists,” according to Michael Crichton, the late science fiction writer (and climate change skeptic). In a widely quoted 2003 speech, Crichton outlined the ways that environmentalism “remaps” Judeo-Christian beliefs:

    There’s an initial Eden, a paradise, a state of grace and unity with nature, there’s a fall from grace into a state of pollution as a result of eating from the tree of knowledge, and as a result of our actions there is a judgment day coming for us all. We are all energy sinners, doomed to die, unless we seek salvation, which is now called sustainability. Sustainability is salvation in the church of the environment. Just as organic food is its communion, that pesticide-free wafer that the right people with the right beliefs, imbibe.

    In parts of northern Europe, this new faith is now the mainstream. “Denmark and Sweden float along like small, content, durable dinghies of secular life, where most people are nonreligious and don’t worship Jesus or Vishnu, don’t revere sacred texts, don’t pray, and don’t give much credence to the essential dogmas of the world’s great faiths,” observes Phil Zuckerman in his 2008 book Society without God. Instead, he writes, these places have become “clean and green.” This new faith has very concrete policy implications; the countries where it has the most purchase tend also to have instituted policies that climate activists endorse. To better understand the future of climate policy, we must understand where “ecotheology” has come from and where it is likely to lead.

    From Theology to Ecotheology

    The German zoologist Ernst Haeckel coined the word “ecology” in the nineteenth century to describe the study of “all those complex mutual relationships” in nature that “Darwin has shown are the conditions of the struggle for existence.” Of course, mankind has been closely studying nature since the dawn of time. Stone Age religion aided mankind’s first ecological investigation of natural reality, serving as an essential guide for understanding and ordering the environment; it was through story and myth that prehistoric man interpreted the natural world and made sense of it. Survival required knowing how to relate to food species like bison and fish, dangerous predators like bears, and powerful geological forces like volcanoes — and the rise of agriculture required expertise in the seasonal cycles upon which the sustenance of civilization depends.

    Our uniquely Western approach to the natural world was shaped fundamentally by Athens and Jerusalem. The ancient Greeks began a systematic philosophical observation of flora and fauna; from their work grew the long study of natural history. Meanwhile, the Judeo-Christian teachings about the natural world begin with the beginning: there is but one God, which means that there is a knowable order to nature; He created man in His image, which gives man an elevated place in that order; and He gave man mastery over the natural world:

    And God blessed them, and God said unto them, Be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it: and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moveth upon the earth. And God said, Behold, I have given you every herb bearing seed, which is upon the face of all the earth, and every tree, in the which is the fruit of a tree yielding seed; to you it shall be for meat. [Genesis 1:28-29]

    In his seminal essay “The Historical Roots of Our Ecologic Crisis,” published in Science magazine in 1967, historian Lynn Townsend White, Jr. argues that those Biblical precepts made Christianity, “especially in its Western form,” the “most anthropocentric religion the world has seen.” In stark contrast to pagan animism, Christianity posited “a dualism of man and nature” and “insisted that it is God’s will that man exploit nature for his proper ends.” Whereas older pagan creeds gave a cyclical account of time, Christianity presumed a teleological direction to history, and with it the possibility of progress. This belief in progress was inherent in modern science, which, wedded to technology, made possible the Industrial Revolution. Thus was the power to control nature achieved by a civilization that had inherited the license to exploit it.

    To White, this was not a positive historical development. Writing just a few years after the publication of Rachel Carson’s eco-blockbuster Silent Spring, White shared in the concern over techno-industrial culture’s destruction of nature. Whatever benefit scientific and technological innovation had brought mankind was eclipsed by the “out of control” extraction and processing powers of industrial life and the mechanical degradation of the earth. Christianity, writes White, “bears a huge burden of guilt” for the destruction of the environment.

    White believed that science and technology could not solve the ecological problems they had created; our anthropocentric Christian heritage is too deeply ingrained. “Despite Copernicus, all the cosmos rotates around our little globe. Despite Darwin, we are not, in our hearts, part of the natural process. We are superior to nature, contemptuous of it, willing to use it for our slightest whim.” But White was not entirely without hope. Even though “no new set of basic values” will “displace those of Christianity,” perhaps Christianity itself can be reconceived. “Since the roots of our trouble are so largely religious, the remedy must also be essentially religious.” And so White suggests as a model Saint Francis, “the greatest spiritual revolutionary in Western history.” Francis should have been burned as a heretic, White writes, for trying “to substitute the idea of the equality of all creatures, including man, for the idea of man’s limitless rule of creation.” Even though Francis failed to turn Christianity toward his vision of radical humility, White argued that something similar to that vision is necessary to save the world in our time.

    White’s essay caused a splash, to say the least, becoming the basis for countless conferences, symposia, and debates. One of the most serious critiques of White’s thesis appears in theologian Richard John Neuhaus’s 1971 book In Defense of People, a broad indictment of the rise of the mellifluous “theology of ecology.” Neuhaus argues that our framework of human rights is built upon the Christian understanding of man’s relationship to nature. Overturning the latter, as White hoped would happen, will bring the former crashing down. And Neuhaus makes the case that White misunderstands his own nominee for an ecological patron saint:

    What is underemphasized by White and others, and what was so impressive in Francis, is the unremitting focus on the glory of the Creator. Francis’ line of accountability drove straight to the Father and not to Mother Nature. Francis was accountable for nature but to God. Francis is almost everyone’s favorite saint and the gentle compassion of his encompassing vision is, viewed selectively, susceptible to almost any argument or mood…. It was not the claims of creation but the claims of the Creator that seized Francis.

    Other Christian writers joined Neuhaus in condemning the eco-movement’s attempt to subvert or supplant their religion. “We too want to clean up pollution in nature,” Christianity Today demurred, “but not by polluting men’s souls with a revived paganism.” The Jesuit magazine America called environmentalism “an American heresy.” The theologian Thomas Sieger Derr lamented “an expressed preference for the preservation of nonhuman nature against human needs wherever it is necessary to choose.” (Stephen R. Fox recounts these responses in his 1981 book John Muir and His Legacy: The American Conservation Movement.)

    The Greening of Christianity

    From today’s vantage, it seems that White’s counsel has been heeded far and wide. Ecotheologies loosely based on concepts lifted from Hinduism or Buddhism have become popular in some Baby Boomer circles. Neo-pagans cheerfully accept the “tree-hugger” designation and say they were born “green.” And, most strikingly, Christianity has begun to accept environmentalism. Theologians now speak routinely of “stewardship” — a doctrine of human responsibility for the natural world that unites interpretations of Biblical passages with contemporary teachings about social justice.

    In November 1979, a dozen years after White’s essay, Pope John Paul II formally designated Francis of Assisi the patron saint of ecologists. Over the following two decades, John Paul repeatedly addressed in passionate terms the moral obligation “to care for all of Creation” and argued that “respect for life and for the dignity of the human person extends also to the rest of Creation, which is called to join man in praising God.” His successor, Benedict XVI, has also spoken about the environment, albeit less stirringly. “That very ordinariness,” argues a correspondent for the National Catholic Reporter, “seems remarkable. Benedict simply took for granted that his audience would recognize the environment as an object of legitimate Christian interest. What the matter-of-fact tone reveals, in other words, is the extent to which Catholicism has ‛gone green.’”

    American Protestantism, too, has gone green. Numerous congregations are constructing “green churches” — choosing to glorify God not by erecting soaring sanctuaries but by building more energy-efficient houses of worship. In some denominations, programs for recycling or carpooling seem as common as food drives. Church-sponsored Earth Day celebrations are widespread.

    Even some evangelicals are turning toward environmentalism. Luis E. Lugo, the director of the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, speaks of their “broader environmental sensitivity”:

    Once it’s translated into Biblical terms, [evangelicals] pick up the environmental banner using phrases that resonate with the ­community — “Creation care.” That immediately puts it in an evangelical context rather than the empirical arguments about the environment. “This is the world God created. God gave you a mandate to care for this world.” It’s a very direct religious appeal.

    That said, the widely reported “greening of evangelicals” shouldn’t be exaggerated. Conservative evangelical leaders remain wary of environmentalism’s agenda and of any attacks on industrial prowess that could be seen as undermining American national greatness. Many evangelicals are rankled by environmentalists’ critique of the Genesis depiction of man’s place in the natural order. And evangelicals are alert to any hint of pagan worship. Moreover, the available poll data — admittedly rather sparse — paints a mixed picture. In a 2008 survey conducted by the Barna Group, a California-based public opinion firm that concentrates on church issues, 90 percent of the evangelical respondents said they “would like Christians to take a more active role in caring for creation” (with two thirds saying they strongly agreed with that sentiment). But the term “Creation care” had not sunk in (89 percent of the respondents who ­identified ­themselves as Christian said they had never heard of it). And both the Barna survey and another 2008 survey conducted by Pew found that evangelicals tend to be much more skeptical about the reality of ­global warming than other American Christians or the population at large.

    To the extent that evangelicals and environmentalists are in fact reaching out to one another, there can be benefits for each side. For churches with aging congregations, green issues reportedly help attract new, younger members to the pews. And what do environmental activists hope to gain by recruiting churches to their cause? “Foot soldiers, is the short answer,” says Lugo.

    Carbon Calvinism

    Beyond influencing — one might even say colonizing — Christianity, the ecological movement can increasingly be seen as something of a religion in and of itself. It is “quasi-religious in character,” says Lugo. “It generates its own set of moral values.”

    Freeman Dyson, the brilliant and contrarian octogenarian physicist, agrees. In a 2008 essay in the New York Review of Books, he described environmentalism as “a worldwide secular religion” that has “replaced socialism as the leading secular religion.” This religion holds “that we are stewards of the earth, that despoiling the planet with waste products of our luxurious living is a sin, and that the path of righteousness is to live as frugally as possible.” The ethics of this new religion, he continued,

    are being taught to children in kindergartens, schools, and colleges all over the world…. And the ethics of environmentalism are fundamentally sound. Scientists and economists can agree with Buddhist monks and Christian activists that ruthless destruction of natural habitats is evil and careful preservation of birds and butterflies is good. The worldwide community of environmentalists — most of whom are not scientists — holds the moral high ground, and is guiding human societies toward a hopeful future. Environmentalism, as a religion of hope and respect for nature, is here to stay. This is a religion that we can all share, whether or not we believe that global warming is harmful.

    Describing environmentalism as a religion is not equivalent to saying that global warming is not real. Indeed, the evidence for it is overwhelming, and there are powerful reasons to believe that humans are causing it. But no matter its empirical basis, environmentalism is progressively taking the social form of a religion and fulfilling some of the individual needs associated with religion, with major political and policy implications.

    William James, the pioneering psychologist and philosopher, defined religion as a belief that the world has an unseen order, coupled with the desire to live in harmony with that order. In his 1902 book The Varieties of Religious Experience, James pointed to the value of a community of shared beliefs and practices. He also appreciated the individual quest for spirituality — a search for meaning through encounters with the world. More recently, the late analytic philosopher William P. Alston outlined in The Encyclopedia of Philosophy what he considered the essential characteristics of religions. They include a distinction between sacred and profane objects; ritual acts focused upon sacred objects; a moral code; feelings of awe, mystery, and guilt; adoration in the presence of sacred objects and during rituals; a worldview that includes a notion of where the individual fits; and a cohesive social group of the likeminded.

    Environmentalism lines up pretty readily with both of those accounts of religion. As climate change literally transforms the heavens above us, faith-based environmentalism increasingly sports saints, sins, prophets, predictions, heretics, demons, sacraments, and rituals. Chief among its holy men is Al Gore — who, according to his supporters, was crucified in the 2000 election, then rose from the political dead and ascended to heaven twice — not only as a Nobel deity, but an Academy Awards angel. He speaks of “Creation care” and cites the Bible in hopes of appealing to evangelicals.

    Selling indulgences is out of fashion these days. But you can now assuage your guilt by buying carbon offsets. Fire and brimstone, too, are much in vogue — accompanied by an unmistakable whiff of authoritarianism: “A professor writing in the Medical Journal of Australia calls on the Australian government to impose a carbon charge of $5,000 on every birth, annual carbon fees of $800 per child and provide a carbon credit for sterilization,” writes Braden R. Allenby, an Arizona State University professor of environmental engineering, ethics, and law. An “article in the New Scientist suggests that the problem with obesity is the additional carbon load it imposes on the environment; others that a major social cost of divorce is the additional carbon burden resulting from splitting up families.” Allenby, writing in a 2008 article on GreenBiz.com, continues:

    A recent study from the Swedish Ministry of Sustainable Development argues that males have a disproportionately larger impact on global warming (“women cause considerably fewer carbon dioxide emissions than men and thus considerably less climate change”). The chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that those who suggest that climate change is not a catastrophic challenge are no different than Hitler…. E.O. Wilson calls such people parasites. Boston Globe columnist Ellen Goodman writes that “global warming deniers are now on a par with Holocaust deniers.”

    The sheer volume of vicious language employed to recast social and cultural trends in terms of their carbon footprint suggests the rise of what Allenby calls a dangerous new “carbon fundamentalism.”

    Some observers detect parallels between the ecological movement and the medieval Church. “One could see Greenpeacers as crusaders, with the industrialist cast as the infidel,” writes Richard North in New Scientist. That may be a stretch, but it does seem that this new religion has its share of excommunicated heretics. For example, since daring to challenge environmentalist orthodoxy, Freeman Dyson has discovered himself variously described as “a pompous twit,” “a blowhard,” “a cesspool of misinformation,” and “an old coot riding into the sunset.” For his part, Dyson remains cheerily unrepentant. “We are lucky that we can be heretics today without any danger of being burned at the stake,” he has said. “But unfortunately I am an old heretic…. What the world needs is young heretics.”

    Many of those making the case that environmentalism has become a religion throw around the word “religion” as a pejorative. This disdain is rooted in an uncontroversial proposition: You cannot reason your way to faith. That’s the idea behind the “leap of faith” — or the leap to faith, in Kierkegaard’s original formulation: the act of believing in something without, or in spite of, empirical evidence. Kierkegaard argued that if we choose faith, we must suspend our reason in order to believe in something higher than reason.

    So those on the right side of the political spectrum who portray environmentalism as a religion do so because, if faith is inherently not ­achievable through rationality, and if environmentalism is a religion, then environmentalism is utterly irrational and must be discredited and ignored. That is the essence of Michael Crichton’s 2003 speech. “Increasingly,” he said, “it seems facts aren’t necessary, because the tenets of environmentalism are all about belief.” Environmentalism, he argued, has become totally divorced from science. “It’s about whether you are going to be a sinner, or saved. Whether you are going to be one of the people on the side of salvation, or on the side of doom. Whether you are going to be one of us, or one of them.”

    A similar attack from the right comes from Ray Evans, an Australian businessman, politician, and global-warming skeptic:

    Almost all of the attacks on the mining industry being generated by the environmentalist movement [in the 1990s] were coming out of Northern Europe and Scandinavia, and it didn’t take me long to work out that we were dealing with religious belief, that the elites of Northern Europe and Scandinavia — the political elites, the intellectual elites, even the business elites — were, in fact, believers in one brand of environmentalism or another and regardless of the facts. Some of the most bizarre policies were coming out of these countries with respect to metals. I found myself having to find out — “Why is this so?” — ­because on the face of it they were insane, but they were very strongly held and you’d have to say that when people hold onto beliefs regarding the natural world, and hold onto them regardless of any evidence to the contrary, then you’re dealing with religion, you’re not dealing with science….

    Secondly, it fulfills a religious need. They need to believe in sin, so that means sin is equal to pollution. They need to believe in salvation. Well, sustainable development is salvation. They need to believe in a mankind that needs redemption, so you get redemption by stopping using carbon fuels like coal and oil and so on. So, it fulfills a religious need and a political need, which is why they hold onto it so tenaciously, despite all the evidence that the whole thing is nonsense.

    Leftists also sometimes disparage environmentalism as religion. In their case, the main objection is usually pragmatic: rationalism effects change and religion doesn’t. So, for instance, the Sixties radical Murray Bookchin saw the way environmentalism was hooking up with New Age spirituality as pathetic. “The real cancer that afflicts the planet is capitalism and hierarchy,” he wrote. “I don’t think we can count on prayers, rituals, and good vibes to remove this cancer. I think we have to fight it actively and with all the power we have.” Bookchin, a self-described revolutionary, dismissed green spirituality as “flaky.” He said that his own brand of “social ecology,” by contrast, “does not fall back on incantations, sutras, flow diagrams, or spiritual vagaries. It is avowedly rational. It does not try to regale metaphorical forms of spiritual mechanism and crude biologisms with Taoist, Buddhist, Christian, or shamanistic ‛Eco-la-la.’”

    The Prophet and the Heretic

    In the 1960s, a British chemist working with the American space program had a flash of insight. Planet Earth, James Lovelock realized, behaves like one complex, living system of which we humans are, in effect, some of its parts. The physical components of the earth, from its atmosphere to its oceans, closely integrate with all of its living organisms to maintain climatic chemistry in a self-regulating balance ideal for the maintenance and propagation of life.

    His idea turned out to have scientific value. However, Lovelock would probably just be a footnote in scientific history instead of the much-decorated intellectual celebrity he is, except for one thing: He named this vast planetary organism after the Greek goddess who personified the earth — Gaia — and described “Her” as “alive.”

    Not only was his Gaia Hypothesis predictably controversial in the world of science — as befits a radical rethinking of earth’s complex biosphere — but it was both revered and reviled by those who saw it as fitting in perfectly with tie-dyed New Age spirituality. This was true even though he describes his time at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena as one in which “not all of us were hippies with our rock chicks.” For both good and ill, Lovelock not only gave the planet a persona, he created one for himself, becoming “the closest thing we have to an Old Testament prophet, though his deity is not Jehovah but Gaia,” as the Sunday Times recently noted.

    Even though Lovelock continues to go to great lengths to be an empiricist, his 2009 book The Vanishing Face of Gaia: A Final Warning — published in the year he celebrated his ninetieth birthday — has been reviewed as a prophet’s wrathful jeremiad of planetary doom, studded with parables of possible salvation for the few.

    Being embraced by the spiritual left has brought Lovelock fame and attention. Yet it’s a marvel the challenges Lovelock has created for himself in changing the minds of zealots. In Vanishing Face, for example, Lovelock, ever the scientist, open-mindedly considers the possibilities for last-ditch humans fighting global warming by intentionally reengineering the planet. One idea he discusses is retrofitting every commercial airliner on earth to allow them, as they fly, each to spray a ton or two of sulfuric acid into the stratosphere every day for the foreseeable future. The notion is that this will create molecules that will cause solar energy to be reflected back into space, replacing the reflectivity of the melting polar ice caps.

    So, you say to Lovelock: You’ve succeeded in getting out this idea that the planet is a living organism. An awful lot of people are totally convinced by your hypothesis, and even view you as a prophet. How would you begin to sell this idea of injecting sulfuric acid into a living being that some view in religious terms?

    “Yes, especially when you think about the role of the element sulfur in old theology,” Lovelock replies. “The devil — the scent of sulfur reveals his presence. I hear what you’re saying very clearly. I’ve never had to sell it to religious greens so far. I don’t look forward to the job.”

    Of environmentalism increasingly being faith-based, Lovelock says, “I would agree with you wholeheartedly. I look at humans as probably having an evolutionary desire to have ideology, to justify their actions. Green thinking is like Christian or Muslim religions — it’s another ideology.”

    In terms of saving Gaia, do you view carbon Calvinism as a net plus or a net minus?

    “A net minus. You often hear environmentalists saying that one should do this or the other thing — like not fly — because not doing it can save the planet. It’s sheer hubris to imagine we can save Gaia. It’s quite beyond our capacity. What we have to do is save ourselves. That’s really important. Gaia would like it.”

    Gaia would like it?

    “Yes. I’ve got to be very careful here, because I get misinterpreted badly. I’m not making out Gaia to be a sentient entity and that sort of thing. It’s really metaphoric. So having said that — ”

    Gaia would think it important for us to save ourselves?

    “Exactly. Our evolution of intelligence is something of immense value to the planet. It could make, eventually, part of it, an intelligent planet. More able to deal with problems like incoming asteroids, volcanic outbursts and so on. So I look on us as highly beneficial and therefore ­certainly worth saving.”

    The good news about religious greens, Lovelock says, is that they can be led. Saints like him can change minds. “I have a personal experience here. Something like five years ago in Britain they did a big poll. There was hardly anybody” in favor of nuclear power. Now — thanks in no small part to Lovelock’s lobbying, at least in his own account — the great majority of Britons favor nuclear energy.

    Lovelock’s faith in democracy is shared by Bjørn Lomborg. He believes that people want to do good, and if you approach them on that basis, you can get them to listen to reason. Lomborg is the Danish author of The Skeptical Environmentalist (published in English in 2001), and the director of the Copenhagen Consensus Center. He has been pilloried for opposing the Kyoto Protocol and other measures to cut carbon emissions in the short term because of the evidence he sees that they don’t achieve their goals. Instead, he argues that we should adapt to inevitable short-term temperature rises and spend money on research and development for longer-term environmental solutions, as well as other pressing world crises such as malaria, AIDS, and hunger. He argues, for example, that ­getting Vitamin A and zinc to 80 percent of the 140 million children in the developing world who lack them is a higher priority than cutting carbon emissions. The cost, he argues, would be $60 million per year, yielding health and cognitive development benefits of over $1 billion.

    Despite his heresy, Lomborg thinks empiricism can prevail over faith. He believes that, in a democracy, if you keep calmly and rationally and sympathetically making your case, the great majority can come to think you are making more sense than the true believers. “My sense is that most people do want to do good,” he says.

    They don’t just want to pay homage to whatever god or whatever religion is the flavor of the year. They actually want to see concrete results that will leave this planet a better place for the future. So I try to engage them in a rational manner rather than in the religious manner. Of course, if people’s minds are entirely made up there is nothing you can do to change it. But my sense is that most people are not in that direction. My sense is that in virtually any area, you have probably 10 percent true believers that you just cannot reach. And probably also 10 percent who just disparage it and don’t give a hoot about it. But the 80 percent are people who are busy living their lives, loving their kids, and making other plans. And I think those are the 80 percent you want to reach.

    So why do so many people want to burn you at the stake?

    Oh sure. Certainly a lot of the high priests have been after me. But I take that as a compliment. It simply means that my argument is a lot more dangerous. If I was just a crazy guy ranting outside the religious gathering, then it might not matter. But I’m the guy who says, maybe you could do smarter. Maybe you could be more rational. Maybe you could spend your money in a better way.

    A lot of people have been after me with totally disproportionate behavior if this were really a discussion on facts. But I continuously try to make this an argument about rationality. Because when you do that, and your opponents perhaps exaggerate, and go beyond the rational argument, it shows up in the conversation. Most people would start saying, “Wow, that’s weird, that they’d go this far.”

    This is not to deny that global warming is also a serious problem. But then again I ask: why is it that we tackle it only in the way that current dogma talks about — cut carbon emissions right now and feel good about yourself? Instead of focusing on making new innovations that would [allow everyone] to cut carbon emissions in the long run much cheaper, more effectively, and with much greater chance of success.

    When you make those double arguments, I think the 80 percent we’ve talked about start saying, “That guy makes a lot of sense. Why are the other people continuously almost frothing around the mouth?” And always saying, “No, no, no, it has to be cut carbon emissions and that has to be the biggest problem in the world.”

    I think that’s the way to counter much of this discussion. It’s not about getting your foot into the religious camp as well. It’s simply to stand firmly on the rational side and keep saying, “but I know you want to do good in the world.”

    Lovelock and Lomberg, prophet and heretic, honored and reviled, one hoping for action today and the other expecting solutions tomorrow — yet each professes confidence in an eventual democratic endorsement of his plan. Talk about a leap of faith.

    The New Religion and Policy

    The two faces of religious environmentalism — the greening of mainstream religion and the rise of carbon Calvinism — may each transform the political and policy debate over climate change. In the former case, the growing Christian interest in stewardship could destabilize the political divide that has long characterized the culture wars. Although the pull of social issues has made the right seem like a natural home for evangelicals, a commitment to environmentalism might lead them to align themselves more with the left. Even if no major realignment takes place, the bond between evangelicals and the right might be loosened somewhat. (And beyond politics, other longstanding positions may be shaken up. Activists and scientists who long pooh-poohed evangelicals because of their views on evolution or the life questions will have to get accustomed to working with the new environmental “foot soldiers,” and vice versa.)

    A deeper concern is the expansion of irrationalism in the making of public policy. Of course, no policy debate can ever be reduced to matters of pure reason; there will always be fundamentally clashing values and visions that cannot be settled by rationality alone. But the rhetoric of many environmentalists is more than just a working out of those fundamental differences. The language of the carbon fundamentalists “indicates a shift from [seeking to help] the public and policymakers understand a complex issue, to demonizing disagreement,” as Braden Allenby has written. “The data-driven and exploratory processes of science are choked off by inculcation of belief systems that rely on archetypal and emotive strength…. The authority of science is relied on not for factual ­enlightenment but as ideological foundation for authoritarian policy.”

    There is nothing unusual about human beings taking more than one path in their search for truth — science at the same time as religion, for example. Nor is there anything unusual about making public policy without sufficient data. We do it all the time; the world sometimes demands it.

    The good news about making public policy in alliance with faith is that it can provoke a certain beneficial zeal. People tend to be more deeply moved by faith than by reason alone, and so faith can be very effective in bringing about necessary change — as evidenced by the civil rights movement, among others.

    The bad news is that the empirical approach arose in no small part to mitigate the dangers of zeal — to keep blood from flowing in the streets. A strict focus on fact and reason whenever possible can avert error and excess in policy. But can someone who has made a faith of ­environmentalism — whose worldview and lifestyle have been utterly shaped by it — adapt to changing facts? For the one fact we reliably know about the future of the planet’s climate is that the facts will change. It is simply too complex to be comprehensively and accurately modeled. As climatologist Gavin Schmidt jokes, there is a simple way to produce a perfect model of our climate that will predict the weather with 100 percent accuracy: first, start with a universe that is exactly like ours; then wait 14 billion years.

    So what happens if, say, we discover that it is not possible to return the environment to the conditions we desire, as James Lovelock expects? What happens if evidence accumulates that we should address climate change with methods that the carbon Calvinists don’t approve of? To what extent, if any, would devotees of the ­“natural” accept reengineering the planet? How long will it take, if ever, for nuclear power to be accepted as green?

    In the years ahead, we will see whether the supposedly scientific debates over the environment can really be conducted by fact and reason alone, or whether necessary change, whatever that may turn out be, will require some new Reformation. For if environmental matters really have become matters of faith — if environmentalism has become a new front in the longstanding culture wars — then what place is left for the crucial function of pragmatic, democratic decision-making?


    This article first appeared in The New Atlantis.

    Joel Garreau is the author of Radical Evolution: The Promise and Peril of Enhancing Our Minds, Our Bodies — and What it Means to be Human (Doubleday, 2005); the Lincoln Professor of Law, Culture, and Values at Arizona State University; and a Senior Future Tense Fellow at the New America Foundation. This article was developed during a Templeton-Cambridge Journalism Fellowship in Science and Religion at the University of Cambridge.

    © 2010 by Joel Garreau

    Photo by Andy Revkin.

  • Fortress Australia: Groundhog Day

    A decade ago, politics in Australia lurched to embrace all things rural, happily demonizing urban interests. This happened in response to a renegade Politician – Pauline Hanson – who for a time captured public sympathy with populist anti-immigration sentiments, threatening to unseat entire governments in the process.

    Now the result of the recent National Election in Australia has seen not only the return of anti immigration sentiments, but the ascendency of anti-growth statements in mainstream politics. For a large country with only 24 million people, it’s a dangerous development.

    Two things are shaping in the aftermath of the 2010 Federal Election as portents of things to come for our economic future. One is the rise of an increasingly orthodox view that Australia at 24 million people is reaching its maximum sustainable population. The second is toward appeasing the agrarian socialism and social conservatism of rural politics. Together, this could mean we are about to usher in an era of low growth, high protection policies. Fortress Australia could easily become a reality no matter which side ultimately claims the keys to the Government benches.

    Prior to the recent Federal Election (August 2010) both major political parties have become shy of the country’s long term population growth patterns. In September 2009, Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan released some early findings of the Intergenerational Report, which predicted Australia could reach 35 million by 2050. Although this rate of growth was pretty much the same as the preceding 40 years, the figure was greeted with alarm by media, the community, and much of the political herd. ‘Australia Explodes’ went the headlines and the lemmings followed over an ideological cliff. (See this blog post from a year ago).

    A month later, then Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was proclaiming that he believed in ‘a big Australia’ but by mid 2010 his later nemesis Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard was proclaiming she ‘did not believe in a big Australia.’ Gillard replaced Rudd in a Labor Party coup, and then as Prime Minister declared we shouldn’t ‘hurtle’ toward 36 million but instead plan for a ‘sustainable’ population, renaming the recently created portfolio of ‘Population Minister’ the ‘Sustainable Population Minister’ in the process. The word ‘sustainable’ in this context stands for ‘slow down or stop.’

    Then came the election campaign with Opposition Leader Tony Abbot promising to ‘slash’ the ‘unsustainable’ immigration numbers (that his mentor John Howard had been responsible for as conservative Prime Minister for over a decade) and to ‘turn back the boats’ of illegal immigrants and asylum seekers, mainly from south east Asia or Afghanistan. Population growth was to be cut to 1.4% (a long term trend anyway) and migrants potentially forced to settle in rural areas (some dodgy form of zipcode migration policy).

    The message from both political leaders was clear: support for a ‘big Australia’ (35 million population by 2050 or the same rate of growth we’d seen in the last 40 years) was gone.

    Add to that the quixotic Australian entrepreneur Dick Smith and his population TV documentary ‘The Population Puzzle’ where he alleged Australia was at risk of running out of food, out of space and out of control, comparing us (oddly) with places like tiny Bangladesh (population 160 million). Smith might be mad but you can’t discount the impact he has on Australian popular opinion. People believe him, politicians included.

    Could it get any worse for the prospects of maintaining even modest levels of population growth in Australia? The last election outcome means the answer is yes. The balance of power in the Senate of the Australian Parliament will now be controlled by ‘The Greens’ (a left wing environmental party). The Greens’ view on population growth is clear: they don’t support it (unless oddly if you’ve arrived illegally, by boat). “This population boom is not economic wisdom, it is a recipe for planetary exhaustion and great human tragedy” said Greens leader Bob Brown when the Intergenerational Report was released last year.

    In the House of Representatives, the balance of power is now held by a handful of independents, representing rural seats. Socially conservative but economically protectionist, the independents’ views on population suggest they would lean toward the Abbot view: turn back the boats, and slow the overall rate of growth. They are quite likely to also push for a redistribution of economic riches to a range of projects for rural and regional areas. The irony that the election result hinged on big swings in urban seats but that a handful of rural independents are now trying to call the shots shouldn’t be lost on anyone.

    Joining the growing chorus of slow or no growth chants is municipal government. The Local Government Association of Queensland’s annual conference this year talked of limits on population growth unless bountiful riches are showered on local governments to cope with ‘unsustainable’ rates of growth. Association President Paul Bell says “councils cannot let population growth exceed infrastructure needs.”

    “Where we find water supplies no longer match the size of the community, where we find roads are congested, where we’re seeing other infrastructure whether it be health or education are falling behind,” he said, population growth was by implication to blame.

    The bottom line? Population growth is now a dirty word in politics and for any business which relies on growth for its prosperity, this is not good news. Everything from airports to property to construction to farming to retailers, manufacturers and tourism will be affected by slowing growth.

    Even social services could suffer if growth is deliberately slowed. Why? Because in 50 years time, without migration or natural growth, the ageing bubble of post-war baby boomers may mean there are two working adults for every five retired. You wouldn’t want to be one of those two and paying their tax bill in 50 years’ time or dependent on the kindness of those workers.

    How has this come about? The answer is simple: growth itself has never been the problem. Instead, it’s been a notoriously inefficient planning approach which has misdirected precious infrastructure spending, pushed up housing prices through artificial restraint on supply combined with usurious upfront levies, which now average $50,000 per dwelling in Queensland (often more) and considerably more in NSW.

    In the last decade, can anyone honestly claim that our planning schemes are now more efficient and quicker, or more easily understood, or better targeted, than a decade ago? I doubt it.

    Would it be too much to ask for a sensible, evidence-based approach that ties population growth to urban and regional strategies, which emphasises economic progress while maintaining lifestyle and environmental standards? How about some decent plans to link regional urban centres to major cities, based not on pork barrels to influential independents but based only on the business case and community mutual benefit? Or how about putting the ‘growth’ back into smart growth, with policies that allow our urban areas to expand in line with demand matched to infrastructure spending, rather than policy dogma?

    Those same questions were being asked a decade ago. Welcome to ground hog day.

    For those interested, here’s a couple of yarns from 10 years ago:
    Slicker Cities for City Slickers. October 1999.
    Nation Building and a National Urban Strategy. May 2001.

    Ross Elliott has more than 20 years experience in property and public policy. His past roles have included stints in urban economics, national and state roles with the Property Council, and in destination marketing. He has written extensively on a range of public policy issues centering around urban issues, and continues to maintain his recreational interest in public policy through ongoing contributions such as this or via his monthly blog The Pulse.

    Photo by Linh_rOm

  • A Pill For Los Angeles? Medicating the Megacities

    Los Angeles — and other modern megacities — conjure increasingly unique genetic profiles that point the way to a new medical industry: Call it urbo-pharmaceuticals. Investors are needed.

    Is there a pill that might inoculate us from smog?
    Is there a gene we can target that would make us resistant to resurgent infectious diseases?
    And is there a way to use genetic data to insulate new immigrants from some of the metabolic challenges of living in a new land of plenty?

    Welcome to the slowly emerging world of environmental medicine and its inevitable outgrowth, environmental pharmaceuticals: compounds specifically suited for mitigating the physiological challenges of mega-city life in the 21st century.

    The inchoate drive for such pills — disparate, proceeding in entrepreneurial fits and starts — is fueled by twin facts.

    First: Inflammation, the chronic-over-firing of the body’s immune system, now sits at the core of almost all scientific discussion of chronic diseases, diseases that persist despite thirty years of lifestyle advice, medication and surgical intervention.

    Second: Urban environments today are physiologically inflammatory beyond belief, their brew of fumes, crowding, germs and bad food wreaking all kinds of internal damage and prompting no end of lifelong medical problems. As Dr Marc Reidl, a specialist in respiratory disease at UCLA puts it, “Mega city life is an unprecedented insult to the immune system.”

    The consequent diseases — asthma and COPD, heart disease, diabetes, alcohol and drug addiction — are costly and life-sapping. They are accentuated by the huge inflows of young populations, many from poor rural environments, from Mexico to the Middle East. These new migrants bring their own unique pathogens, and their own unique vulnerabilities. Poverty fuels excess consumption of cheap fruits and sugars, pushes people into smog-proximate neighborhoods and pest-filled homes, and drives them to unhealthful behaviors. And certain genes — most notably the well-studied “hungry gene” — exacerbate the reaction. Consider:

    Asthma and COPD, considered among the world’s top medical concerns, seem to be activated by special sets of genes, some of which accentuate the impact of smog (along with tobacco smoke, the principle culprit in the industrialized world). Other genetic profiles seem to mitigate it. Researchers at the University of Southern California have identified both versions.

    In the Latino population, mutations in liver genes, particularly one well-known one named CYP450, seem not only to fuel alcohol abuse, but also to accentuate some of its gravest consequences: fatty liver disease and cirrhosis.

    Heart disease, as well as problem pregnancies, uncontrolled diabetes, and even sleep apnea, are increasingly driven not just by the traditional devils of unhealthy lifestyle and poverty, but by genes activated by uniquely urban pathogens and concentrated diesel and auto exhaust.

    Genes governing stress responses may be at the root of why traditional antibiotics do not work within the germy reality of big cities. For years, speaking the words “genes,” “immigrants,” and “public health” was the proverbial ticket to a social and political nether-land. It was almost as bad as talking about obesity. It is still a messy brew.

    Yet outside of “nannyism” (not necessarily such a bad thing), or trying to scare away any new migrants (which is), what can be done? One tack might be to take a cue from modern pharmacology’s attempt to develop a pill for Metabolic Syndrome, the debilitating mix of diabetes, high blood pressure and high cholesterol now prevalent in most developed nations. Can we design an urban poly-pill, one built specifically for the inflammatory storms of the mega-city? And can we point it at what might be called the big three: the impairment of respiration, metabolism and cardio vascular processes?

    UCLA’s Riedl, a specialist in respiratory disease, has zeroed in on oxidative stress — the damage caused by unstable, burned-up nutrient particles in the blood stream. He knew that anti-oxidant supplement regimes have been an overwhelming bust, most of them weak and not very good at targeting the body’s native anti-oxidant systems. Then came a number of insights made possible by genetics. Perhaps the most important was a molecule dubbed GSTM1. It is deeply implicated in fighting oxidative stress from smog and other pollutants. Riedl traced the pathway upstream and found that it was driven by another gene product called Nrf-2.

    Then he decided to pharmaceuticalize one molecule derived from broccoli sprouts, sulphoraphane, crafting a concoction using concentrates of the vegetable mixed with daikon root essence. The result was a compound he could try out in various concentrations in humans, then measure whether its effect on Nrf-2 were, in the lexicon of pharmaceutical development, “dose dependent.” It was. The next step will be to test how well it works in people exposed to constant high levels of smog.

    Though the path to any therapy remains long and arduous, Riedl holds a picture in his mind of one possible future. “The Holy Grail for us is if we could identify the population sub group that is most likely to have the mutation that impairs Nrf-2, and who are environmentally vulnerable —say, people who live close to freeways — and essentially do targeted chemotherapy for environmental insults.”

    Among urban woes, metabolic disorders are particularly troublesome. The NIH has singled out type 2 diabetes and fatty liver disease as the two biggest factors driving hospitalization, amputations and prescription drug use. Their effect on health care expenditure is huge and growing. Treatment — let alone prevention — has proved vexing.

    Two promising compounds are under serious study. The first is the grape skin compound known as Resveratrol. Though mainly known for its claim to extend mammalian lifespan, its true value is quietly emerging in diabetes treatment, where early clinical trials showed promising results but, unfortunately, several safety issues.

    And Metformin, a diabetes drug originally synthesized from the French lilac plant, may have huge protective benefits for urbanites. Researchers at UCLA Riverside have used microchip arrays to discover that it activates liver genes that dampen high insulin levels and vascular inflammation.

    At USC, one of the world’s leading centers for studying diabetes and liver diseases, scholars have pinpointed a gene that, when activated, causes fatty liver disease, another potential urbo-drug target. As Michael Goran, the head of USC’s diabetes research, notes: “In Mexican Americans there is mutation in a gene called PNPLA1 which is related to an elevation in liver fat which could be related to increased diabetes risk and definitely [is] related to longer term increase in liver disease; this mutation is highly prevalent in Hispanics/Mexican Americans; moreover, in our own research we have just discovered that: a) the effect of this gene is manifested very early in life and b) the effect of this gene on increasing liver fat is promoted by high sugar intake.”

    What about the heart? UCLA heart researcher Alan Fogelman, the dean of modern HDL research, has two compounds in small clinical trials that would help the body restore its ability to make good cholesterol, a process increasingly undermined by the smog, virii and bad food of mega-cities. Both are peptides — short, protein-like molecules — that target specific gene products activated by chronic inflammation, which can include everything from the flu to sleep apnea to unchecked diabetes. The compounds are being developed by Bruin Pharma, a commercial venture in which Fogelman is a principal and an officer.

    What are his HDL peptide’s chances? “It is so early to try to tell something like that,” he says. “We have no idea where that effort will take us, or whether it will hit the target we hope. We have to wait for the trials.”

    Yet waiting, especially when it requires patience and foresightedness, is something we as a society seem incapable of, especially when dealing with complicated public health issues. But what if there were a faster, cheaper way? Urbo-pharmaceuticals might be one ticket. After all, we are patient and forgiving when it comes to pills and the time, cost and uncertainty that comes with their development.

    Chalk that up to the ease-seeking nature of humans, something for which there is no pill, but which, in itself, might drive us to invest in a poly pill for modern life.

    Greg Critser’s new book is Eternity Soup: Inside the Quest to End Aging (Random/Harmony 2010).

    Photo by ilmungo / Luigi Anzivino, Los Angeles from the top of Temescal Canyon Trail, “…taken not at sunset, but at 11AM… that pretty peach-colored layer in the sky is the famous LA smog.”